STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. Lots of drama is ahead this week with Hollywood Donnie's Trump Trade and Tariff War kicking into high gear on Wednesday. 

Bulls need NYA above 19335, SPX above 5662, and/or XLF above 49.76, otherwise, they are toast. The NYA and SPX targets are the lines in the sand for a cyclical bear market going forward. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will stop the stock market selling. 2 of the 3 turning bullish will start a comeback rally for stocks. If all 3 turn bullish, it may signal the start of a relief rally with legs, if King Donnie does not throw a wrench (spanner) into the works.

Bears need lower commodities and utes and need to pull GTX below 3728 and/or UTIL below 992. Stocks will take another leg lower and the SPX will test the 5505 prior low if either one fails.

Despite the big Friday selloff and soggy stock market, the utilities are holding up. Traders and investors still think like decades ago putting money into utes and staples believing they will hold up better in a recession. UTIL begins the week at 1011. If 992 fails, the stock market will be in serious trouble. Everything up to now is baby games, but if 992 fails, things are going to get real ugly. If UTIL fails at 986-987, the US stock market will likely crash and headed for a loss of from -20% to -80% (from the February 2025 record top) over the next couple years. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

If the bulls can hold the line with utes maintaining bullishness, the stock market will likely bottom over the next couple weeks and start a substantive relief rally. Thus, you have 5 metrics above controlling the fate of the stock market going forward. Simply watch those metrics which dictate what direction stocks are going.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow night for EOM and EOQ1 and the other on Friday morning before the opening bell. 

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at 10:11 AM EST Friday morning at SPX 5643. It was a bloody day for the stock market, call it a mini-crash, as several metrics failed sending stocks to Hades. The algo number is 19 points below the signal line which is not much in these choppy, whipsaw markets with daily Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War drama mixed-in with Fed indecision and stubborn inflation.

The critical SPX 5662 and NYA 19335 bull/bear lines in the sand, that signal a cyclical bear market for the US stock market, failed yesterday morning and the rout was on. This failure points to many weeks and months of stock market sogginess ahead. Bulls desperately need to push the indexes back above the lines in the sand, otherwise, they are toast and the selling will only increase from here.

The banks also failed yesterday creating market mayhem. XLF drops below its key 49.76 line in the sand so the pain and misery deepened. 

The bears are in control but need to maintain weakness in SPX, NYA and XLF while at the same time turning commodities, copper and utilities bearish. All three are joyful so it is a tough ask. Watch the UTIL 992 level and then 986-987. The stock market will go into a crash profile at UTIL 992 and will crash if UTIL loses 986-987. It will be fun.

The bulls need to focus all their might on NYA 19335. Price begins Monday morning at 19270. If the NYA pops above 1933, it tells you that the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. A rally may not begin but it will at least stop the downside bleeding. If NYA remains below 19335 and trending lower, and you are a bull holding on to long positions, you will be beaten further into submission, and the blood will continue to flow on Wall and Broad.

The first quarter ends on Monday so there was some reverse window dressing in the market. For the quarterly statements, some of the investment houses may not want to show losing stocks like semiconductors in the funds, so they sell them off a la Friday, and on the statement they will be gone making the investor feel okay, even though the fund lost money on that stock and ditched it. This is called the Wall Street casino game. Remember it as you look at your quarterly statement and realize these folks are a bunch of crooks.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the algo program is a marginal loss and the actual trading loses a percent. For the year thus far with Q1 in the bag on Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -4.1%. The Wall Street analysts that promised SPX 7K and more this year are in full retreat with 5 hundo and more points chopped from their old estimates for their new estimates. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +4.1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11.9%. The quant program is outperforming the benchmark SPX index by 8 percentage-points and the actual trading is beating the benchmark by 16 percentage-points. There is still a lot of year remaining. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

NYA 19335, SPX 5662 and XLF 49.76 will tell you everything you need to know on Monday.

3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =  
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)
3/28/25; 10:10 AM EST = -3; signal line is -18
3/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -20
3/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is -22
3/27/25; 12:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -25
3/27/25; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is -26
3/25/25; 3:48 PM EST = -5; signal line is -29
3/25/25; 3:26 PM EST = -21; signal line is -31
3/25/25; 1:03 PM EST = -5; signal line is -33
3/25/25; 10:11 AM EST = -21; signal line is -34
3/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is -35
3/25/25; 9:38 AM EST = -2; signal line is -37
3/24/25; 9:44 AM EST = +14; signal line is -39
3/24/25; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -42
3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25; 3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25; 1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25; 10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
3/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -51
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53
3/17/25; 1:35 PM EST = -32; signal line is -53; go long 5667; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +13.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. The bulls are Stayin' Alive. The music's loud and the women warm. The quant is following several moving parts but simplifying; utes, banks and the SPX index control stock market direction currently.

The robot is tracking UTIL 1003.65, XLF 50.00 and SPX 5666. The market-makers pushed the SPX up over 5666 in the final minute of trading on Friday. Do you think 5666 is important? Yes, it is, because it dictates the line between cyclical bull and cyclical bear markets.

Thus, the bulls are in full control of the stock market currently but they need the banks to turn bullish right away to keep the party going. Bulls need XLF above 50.00 or the upside party will fade. If XLF regains 50 heading higher, the focus would be VIX 16.86. If the VIX drops below 16.86, stocks will catapult higher to the moon.

The bears need a weaker SPX and utilities. Bears need the SPX to drop below 5666 pronto to prove that they still got game and are regrouping planning another attack. Bears need UTIL below 1004 to create market sogginess. Even with these two parameters turning bearish it will likely not be enough to get the quant to flip short. In addition to the SPX and utes, the bears will likely need NYA below 19300 or GTX below 3721. If 3 of the 4 flip metrics flip bearish, the quant will likely flip back to the short side.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. There are 6 trading days remaining in Q1. With all the moving parts and parameters sitting on bull/bear lines in the sand, the caution flag is out. Focus on the SPX, utilities and banks to determine market direction on Monday.

3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =  
3/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25; 3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25; 1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25; 10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the markets chop along before and after the Fed meeting today.  Stagflation is the word of the day; the potential for inflation and high unemployment a la the 1970's. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. They have their "Back Against the Wall" as Son Volt sings. No time to be unwound, with darkness at your doorstep, keep your feet on the ground.

The bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility to send stocks to the moon. Bulls need XLF above 50.02, it knocked on the door today, and/or VIX below 16.89 now with a 19 handle. If both turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting higher.

Bears need to keep banks weak and volatility high while pushing SPX below 5666, NYA below 19295 and/or GTX below 3719. Bears likely need 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish to flip the quant to the short side.

The above parameters tell you how the broad stock market will move. In addition, watch utilities tomorrow and Friday. UTIL 1003.65, call it 1004, is a key bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week. Therefore, the closing price on Friday is important. UTIL is at 1014 now. If UTIL remains above 1004 and the week ends, that tells you that the stock market will be strong at the start next week. If UTIL falls below 1004 over the next two days and remains below to end the week, that tells you that stocks will be soggy to begin next week. 

The bulls are in charge and cruising with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. Over the coming days, bulls must push VIX below 16.89. If not, any rally that had occurred will reverse and fall apart.

3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
3/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -51
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side today at SPX 5667 following through after the Friday stutter steps. Commodities, GTX 3719, and NYA 19295 and SPX 5666 all jump into the bull camp punching the bears in the face. The bulls are now in charge of the stock market with the algo number 35 points above the signal line.

It is a big stick-save by the bulls to push NYA above 19295 and SPX above 5666. The bears need to reverse these gains if they want the ball back. Today's move gives street cred to the relief rally but VIX 16.89 is the major test.

If stocks continue rallying, and the VIX drops below 16.89, equities will catapult to the moon as bulls throw confetti. If stocks rally, however, and the VIX drops but cannot move below 16.89, the relief rally means nothing, and it will likely roll over and die going forward. The VIX 16.89 bull/bear line in the sand is a big deal so watch it and the other metrics this week.

Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High on hump day. Stocks rally 80% of the time on the Tuesday and Wednesday into the Fed meetings so traders are front-running the move starting last Friday. Powell holds the power. Patty Smith and others want the People to Have the Power. 

Bulls ride to glory with lower volatility while bears can wrestle back control of the stock market with weaker commodities, and lower NYA and SPX indexes.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

On the last trade that ran about 3 weeks, the quant program gains about +6% and the actual trading gains about +14%. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Yinz can take the rest of the year off. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is down almost -4% puking its guts out from the top less than a month ago. The quant program is up about +5% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +13% on the year outperforming the benchmark by 17 percentage-points. No one can complain about that. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53
3/17/25; 1:35 PM EST = -32; signal line is -53; go long 5667; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +13.2%)
3/17/25; 9:37 AM EST = -32; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
3/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:11 PM EST = -46; signal line is -51
3/14/25; 2:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -50
3/14/25; 2:06 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 1:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -49
3/14/25; 1:08 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:21 PM EST = -76; signal line is -47
3/13/25; 12:52 PM EST = -60; signal line is -45
3/13/25; 10:28 AM EST = -46; signal line is -42
3/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -41
3/12/25; 12:12 PM EST = -46; signal line is -39
3/12/25; 11:26 AM EST = -62; signal line is -38
3/12/25; 11:10 AM EST = -76; signal line is -36
3/12/25; 11:00 AM EST = -62; signal line is -32
3/12/25; 10:23 AM EST = -46; signal line is -30
3/12/25; 10:03 AM EST = -60; signal line is -27
3/12/25; 9:37 AM EST = -46; signal line is -24
3/11/25; 10:33 AM EST = -60; signal line is -21
3/11/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17
3/10/25; 1:36 PM EST = -60; signal line is -14
3/10/25; 10:38 AM EST = -46; signal line is -11
3/10/25; 9:57 AM EST = -32; signal line is -8
3/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -6
3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = -32; signal line is -5
3/7/25; 11:56 AM EST = -32; signal line is -3
3/7/25; 11:06 AM EST = -48; signal line is -1
3/7/25; 10:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is +2
3/7/25; 10:23 AM EST = -18; signal line is +4
3/7/25; 9:46 AM EST = -34; signal line is +6
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is +8
3/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is +11
3/5/25; 12:03 PM EST = -32; signal line is +12
3/5/25; 11:31 AM EST = -48; signal line is +14
3/4/25; 9:48 AM EST = -32; signal line is +17
3/3/25; 1:16 PM EST = -16; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:58 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:42 AM EST = -16; signal line is +20
3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is +20
2/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +21
2/24/25; 10:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +22
2/21/25; 1:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21; go short 6050; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +2.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.3%; Actual results for 2025 = -0.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only 8 points below the signal line and the quant keeps threatening to go long. It is on a silver platter for the bulls if they want it tomorrow.

If GTX runs above 3717.70, and it is only a buck away at 3716.63, and the SPX runs above 5645, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is only about +6 points on the S&P futures so it is an easy bar to step over. Bears need to keep commodities weak or they will succumb to a relief rally for stocks.

The major focus is NYA 19260 and SPX 5663. The US stock market is in serious trouble right now and will become far worse if these indexes remain below their critical values that identify a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market. The cyclical bear market in US equities has started so the bulls must quicky reverse these two metrics, otherwise, the bulls will ride the Highway to Hell.

Stocks may idle early in the week because on Wednesday, Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell traders how to trade. Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning.

The stock market is set-up for the bulls to take over. Can they? Bears need weaker copper and utilities to turn the stock market selling into a crash.

3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. There was a technical glitch in the previous post that was deleted. A digit was slipped by a person that will remain nameless. The punishment will be severe. 50 lashes with a wet noodle.

The quant remains short after a crazy week but teasing a move ahead. The robot prints 7 numbers on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The stock market is a coin-flip. Traders are waiting for a relief rally and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy on Friday with a big move off the bottom.

The quant is champing at the bit, in and out, to go long but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. It can really go any way on Monday.

If GTX moves above 3717.70, and the SPX moves above 5663, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Other parameters that guarantee a bull path forward and end to the carnage are NYA 19260 and SPX 5663. If either of these two turn bullish, it is a loud and clear signal that the bulls have started a relief rally that has legs.

If NYA remains below 19260, and SPX below 5663, there will be Hell to pay going forward.

The glitch in the matrix is fixed. The algorithm remains short but is hinting that a turnaround to the bull side may be ahead. Bulls need stronger commodities and lower volatility. Now that things are on track again, some Ice Queen will be good; Sue plays Queen Bee. What a groove.

3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -52
3/14/25; 3:11 PM EST = -46; signal line is -51
3/14/25; 2:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -50
3/14/25; 2:06 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 1:59 PM EST = -60; signal line is -49
3/14/25; 1:08 PM EST = -46; signal line is -49 but algorithm remains short
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = -60; signal line is -48
3/13/25; 2:21 PM EST = -76; signal line is -47
3/13/25; 12:52 PM EST = -60; signal line is -45
3/13/25; 10:28 AM EST = -46; signal line is -42
3/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -41
3/12/25; 12:12 PM EST = -46; signal line is -39
3/12/25; 11:26 AM EST = -62; signal line is -38
3/12/25; 11:10 AM EST = -76; signal line is -36
3/12/25; 11:00 AM EST = -62; signal line is -32
3/12/25; 10:23 AM EST = -46; signal line is -30
3/12/25; 10:03 AM EST = -60; signal line is -27
3/12/25; 9:37 AM EST = -46; signal line is -24
3/11/25; 10:33 AM EST = -60; signal line is -21
3/11/25; 9:36 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17
3/10/25; 1:36 PM EST = -60; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market collapses. The bears are in full control with the algo number 46 points below the signal line. SPX 5664 and NYA 19260 both fail ushering in market mayhem and the blood is flowing on Wall and Broad.

Interestingly, utilities did not fail. UTIL is at 1002 with the line in the sand at 986. Bears need weaker utes and copper to create a significant crash. 

If SPX or NYA recover above the numbers listed above, the all-clear will start to sound for a relief rally but if these two metrics remain bearish, stocks still have a long ways to drop. If both remain negative and UTIL loses 986, there is no hope if you are long, you will lose a lot of money. Bulls also need GTX above 3717 which would help stabilize the stock market and stop the downdraft.

Watch UTIL 986 because if it fails, it will be the Last Kiss for the stock market before it goes off the cliff.

3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST =
3/10/25; 1:36 PM EST = -60; signal line is -14
3/10/25; 10:38 AM EST = -46; signal line is -11
3/10/25; 9:57 AM EST = -32; signal line is -8
3/10/25; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -6
3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = -32; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 27 points below the signal line. There are several moving parts in the stock market. Utilities, the NYA index, the SPX index, commodities, banks and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently.

Bears need UTIL below 983 that will bring about carnage in the stock market and place equities into a crash profile. If NYA loses 19225 and the SPX loses 5673, the stock market will crash.

Bulls need the above three metrics to remain bullish. At the same time, bulls need GTX above 3717.84, XLF above 50.60, and VIX below 16.87. Any of these three metrics turning bullish tells you that the relief rally is at hand.

Commodities are key with the GTX only 4 bucks away from the bull camp. Utes are key with UTIL only 8 points from stock market disaster. 

To whittle things down for something simple to watch, pay attention to commodities and utes. It is a cage match where two enter but only one exits. Bulls need GTX above 3718 to signal that the relief rally is starting. Bears need UTIL below 983 to usher in stock market mayhem. Choose your poison. Poison in the Well.

Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week after the Friday morning open. Clocks changed in the United States a couple hours ago for Daylight Saving Time. Time in a Bottle. Jim Croce, a gifted songwriter, got screwed in life. 

3/16/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/14/25; 10:00 AM EST =
3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST = -32; signal line is -5
3/7/25; 11:56 AM EST = -32; signal line is -3
3/7/25; 11:06 AM EST = -48; signal line is -1
3/7/25; 10:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is +2
3/7/25; 10:23 AM EST = -18; signal line is +4
3/7/25; 9:46 AM EST = -34; signal line is +6
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is +8
3/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market falls apart. UTIL 983 is key and upon its failure this morning, the stock market is in a crash profile currently. The bears are cruising with the algo number 59 huge points below the signal line. Traders are selling first and asking questions later.

Bulls need UTIL 983 pronto, otherwise, they will be slaughtered going forward. Bears need NYA below 19225 and/or SPX below 5671 to likely usher in a major crash. This is fun.

Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number tomorrow before the opening bell but there is still a lot of trading remaining in today's session. Stocks are sliding down the rabbit hole. Slide.

3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is +11
3/5/25; 12:03 PM EST = -32; signal line is +12
3/5/25; 11:31 AM EST = -48; signal line is +14
3/4/25; 9:48 AM EST = -32; signal line is +17
3/3/25; 1:16 PM EST = -16; signal line is +19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market takes the pipe today. It's Beautiful. The stock market was stabbed in the back today by commodities. Volatility ran higher running over the bulls chance of a comeback rally. The bears are in charge with the algo number 35 points below the signal line.

Commodities are in the bear camp but the bulls will try to claw them back tomorrow. Bulls need GTX above 3717 to stop the stock market selling. Bulls need VIX below 16.82 to regain control of the stock market but price is up at 22.78.

Thus, the bears look pretty good but they need to keep pressing if they want to create carnage. The utility trap-door remains closed. Bears need UTIL below 983 to open the trap-door and hang the market. Stocks will crash worse than today and remain sick a long time. Bears need XLF below 50.70 about a -2% drop in banks. This will create market mayhem.

Thus, GTX 3717 is the current rudder for the stock market ship, with XLF 50.70 also in play. If banks and utes are trading positively, the stock market draw down will likely not be a biggie. If banks and utilities join the bear camp, Katy bar the door, the blood will flow on Wall and Broad, with big carnage occurring in the indexes.

Commodities, banks, utilities and volatility are all that matter currently.

3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/25; 1:16 PM EST = -16; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:58 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19
3/3/25; 10:42 AM EST = -16; signal line is +20
3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sloppy market action continues. The bears are in charge with the algo number 22 points below the signal line. The bears are comfortable but things can change fast.

Bears have succeeded after they slapped the retail stocks and chips in the face. Bears also create higher volatility so stocks sink.

Bulls are trying to keep commodities, copper and banks in the bull camp because if any of them fail, equities will be sliding down the rabbit hole.

Bears need GTX below 3717 with price beginning the week at 3726. If commodities are weak, the stock market is in bigtime trouble. This behavior would also surface in copper and Keybot is tracking CPER 27.63 as a line in the sand. XLF 50.55 is also a key bull/bear line in the sand. Bears will create carnage if UTIL loses 981. Any one of these four metrics turning bearish will guarantee more stock market pain to the downside ahead.

Bulls need lower volatility plain and simple. Bulls need VIX below 16.59 if they want to stop the selling and try and stabilize the stock market. There is no hope if you are bullish and long stocks if the VIX remains above 16.59, and you will feel more pain the higher the VIX moves.

To whittle it down to something simple, bears will create another leg lower for the stock market if GTX loses 3717 (weaker commodities) but bulls can stall the selling and try to stabilize stocks if VIX moves below 16.59 (lower volatility). It is a cage match. Commodities and volatility enter but only one will exit and be victorious and the stock market will move in that direction.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

3/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
3/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is +20
2/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +21
2/24/25; 10:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
2/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +22