STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The robot was active last week after a couple-few weeks of idling along. The quant prints 8 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number.

Volatility, copper and banks are the three key drivers of the stock market currently. All 3 are in the bull camp creating the never-ending buoyancy in equities. The bears needed 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bearish to take the ball away from the bulls but alas, copper and banks are firmly bullish giving bears no hope.

But Friday some interesting action occurs. If you were watching the VIX 16.97 line in the sand, price kept oscillating above and below in the early morning hours. Each time that the VIX price jogs above and below 16.97, the quant's algo number and signal line converge. Interestingly, the bears had it on a silver platter Friday morning, but could not convert one more jog move that would have placed the quant in position to go short.

But something important occurs. The robot no longer needs 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish; it only needs 1 of the 3. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.97, CPER 29.07 and XLF 52.98. Bears need one of the three to turn bearish and the quant will be in position to flip short (consider the imminent turn to be at play).

On Friday, the Fed stepped in during the afternoon and crushed volatility, pushing Uncle Vix to the ground and placing a jackboot on his neck to hold him down, so stocks rallied into the weekend. The VIX retreated to 15.29 allowing bulls to puff their chests out all weekend long.

Since volatility is the main focal point, watch the VIX in the early morning hours East Coast time to see what the stock market will do later that day. If VIX remains below 16.97, the bulls rule and bears got nothing. If VIX pops above 16.97 heading higher, the wheels will fall off the stock market.

Just when the VIX appears to be the major determinant of the path ahead, copper and banks may surprise and collapse to create negativity. Copper futures need to fall -1.0% and the XLF needs to drop -1.7% to turn bearish and create market mayhem. Those are not big drops that may occur especially with copper.

If 1 of the 3 metrics above turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6604 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

There is lots of market craziness occurring these days. The month and Q3 ends on Tuesday and October trading and Q4 begins on Wednesday. Keybot prints 3 prescheduled numbers this week. The jobs circus will be back in town on Friday. Pay close attention to volatility and copper since they will tell the story ahead. The bulls are still Stayin' Alive. Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out now that they have pulled Doctor Copper back into their camp. The bulls sent copper higher while keeping volatility low.

The VIX was rising and stalling markets late morning but at about 1 PM EST, the VIX was squashed like a bug. It is surprising the day ended negative for the SPX since higher copper and lower volatility are two bullish metrics.

The bulls expect higher stocks ahead and they are in the drivers seat. The bears have zero hope unless they can push copper lower, push banks lower, and/or pull volatility higher. The quant is tracking CPER 29.07, XLF 52.97 and VIX 16.97 as the key bull/bear lines in the sand. All 3 are currently bullish creating stock market joy.

The bears need 2 of the 3 metrics to flip into their camp to create enough negativity to flip the model short. If CPER falls below 29.07, and/or if XLF falls below 52.97, and/or VIX moves above 16.97, two of the three must occur, and if the SPX drops below 6622 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

You can watch copper and VIX futures overnight and then check XLF in the pre-market tomorrow morning. You will know what will happen before the opening bell rings. Pretty Anita knows how to ring that bell.

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The robot showed that it is still alive and kicking spitting out two numbers today. It's alive! It's alive! The algo number is  8 points above the signal line so all is groovy for the bulls but the bears were growling today due to elevated volatility.

The VIX popped above 17, above the key bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 16.97, identified by the quant. This pop in vol created the swoon in stocks and then late-day the Fed tackled Uncle Vix pushing him back down to the floor below 16.97 so stocks recover.

Commodities rallied today. Banks remain buoyant. Retail stocks are starting to get wobbly knees. It is a new cage match tomorrow between Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix. Two will enter but only one will exit and the stock market will follow the winner.

The bulls need to keep the VIX below 16.97 while at the same time pumping CPER above 29.02 heading higher. This will unleash a new leg higher for the bull rally.

The bears need to keep copper weak with CPER below 29.02 while at the same time catapulting the VIX above 16.97 that will create automatic market mayhem. Since it failed today, and then the bulls saved the day, the front line is slightly weakened, so the bears will attack again and see if they can bust up through VIX 16.97 for good sending stocks over the cliff.

If VIX overtakes 16.97 running above 17, and the SPX drops below 6646, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Tomorrow may be an important day.

The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 9/23/25, at 6699.52, only 48 pennies from 6700. The screenprinter already delivered the large cardboard box with 500 "SPX 6.7K" hats ready for distribution. Alas, the S&P 500 fell on its sword after the record high so the all-time closing high remains at 6693.75 on 9/22/25.

Watch copper and volatility. One of them will flinch. You can watch the futures overnight and will know the answer before the opening bell for the cash session. Bulls need higher copper and lower vol. Bears need lower copper and higher vol. Two will go to one. U2 sings "One."

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls are kicking arse and taking names. The stock market is one big euphoric par-tay, all day, each day, and the bulls say it will continue forever. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line enough for the bulls to maintain control of the stock market. The robot idled along last week only printing the prescheduled number.

Chips launch into the stratosphere creating higher stock indexes and rampant optimism that AI will solve all the worlds problems. The banks run higher creating further market joy and happiness.

Interestingly, bulls need higher copper to guarantee more upside bullish fun but, despite the new all-time high at 6671.82 and new all-time closing high at 6664.36, Doctor Copper remains sick and stays in the bear camp for now.

Copper and commodities are the main metrics controlling stock market direction right now. Copper is creating negativity in stocks while commodities are creating positivity in equities. Bulls need CPER above 29.10 to throw confetti and begin a new stock market orgy where the sky is the limit.

Bears need GTX below 3792 to create market sadness and selling. If GTX fails, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6630, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Copper and commodities enter the cage match but only one will exit and take the stock market in that direction. The euphoric rally will stall if CPER 29.10 cannot be attained (bulls need this to signal blue skies and rainbows ahead). Bulls need a +1.8% rise in copper while bears need a -1.4% drop in commodities. The table is set.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. If the VIX pops above 17.27, it is lights-out for stocks. Bulls are fine if the VIX remains below 17.27. VIX begins at 15.45. Who will be the Lucky Man this week?

9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after an uneventful week. The quant is idling along only printing the prescheduled number last week with the bulls in full control taking the stock market to new record heights. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line.

The all-time record high is 6600.21 on Friday, 9/12/25. Ding, ding, ding. The screenprinter was rushed to print the "SPX 6.6K" hats and in his haste slipped during the delivery dropping the caps into a mud puddle on Wall and Broad. The all-time closing high is 6587.47 on 9/11/25.

Banks, copper, commodities and volatility are running the show with Dr Copper the only metric causing negativity in the stock market right now. Bulls need CPER above 29.23 to continue the upside joy in equities and new record highs. Copper moving into the bull camp would be a big deal.

On the other side, bears need XLF below 52.70, GTX below 3784, and/or VIX above 17.60, any one will do, to created market mayhem. Interestingly, the CPER, XLF and GTX parameters are each about 2% away from the bull/bear lines in the sand. Copper needs to gain about +2% to signal bullish joy while banks or commodities need to drop about -2% each to create market negativity.

Thus, check copper futures overnight to see if they are up over +2% to signal more bullish fun ahead. Also, watch volatility because a VIX moving above 17.60 will lock-in downside misery for stocks.

The table is set. It is copper versus banks. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit. If only one of the three bullish metrics turn bearish, and if the SPX drops below 6579 moving lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The robot prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday morning the same day that Fed Chairman Powell will bring the tablets down from On High to tell global traders how to trade (rate decision and press conference). The bulls are smiling joyously expecting stocks to continue higher and higher. Watch the banks. Make Me Smile.

9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears are set to battle for another week. Vacation season is over and it is time for everyone to get back to work. The bulls pump chips to maintain stock market buoyancy just like the banks a couple weeks ago. The banksters are now back in play. Banks, chips, commodities, volatility and copper are the key market metrics moving stocks currently.

Copper is in the bear camp with the other parameters in the bull camp preventing the stock market from dropping. XLF 52.50, SOX 5590, GTX 3777, VIX 18.12, and CPER 29.30, respectively, are the bull/bear lines in the sand currently identified by the quant. Volatility spiked into the bear camp last Tuesday but that was stick-saved by the bulls crushing the VIX lower again in quick order (VIX moves inversely to stocks).

XLF begins at 53.07 so bears need a 57-cents drop in price to create stock market negativity. That is a -1.1% drop so check the banks pre-market to see if they are this soggy. If so, the bears will be coming to play. If not, stocks will likely remain buoyant.

If the XLF loses 53.07, or one of the other 3 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6444, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. It should be an interesting week ahead. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Watch the banksters. Money.

9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST =
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 10 points above the signal line. The US stock market is a knock-down, drag-out fight between the bulls and the bears trading punches during the hump day session.

It is all about the chips. No, not those chips; the semiconductors. They failed just before munchtime but recovered, then failed, then recovered, then failed, you get the picture. Watch the SOX 5567 bull/bear line in the sand.

If bulls keep SOX above 5567, the easy street upside rally for equities will continue with the Fed wine flowing like water. If bears push the SOX below 5567, you will notice a serious deterioration in the stock market and the potential path to blood and carnage ahead. The chips are for all the marbles.

If bears drive chips lower, watch VIX 18.18 to see if the selling has legs. Also, XLF 52.40 is a line in the sand that will guarantee carnage ahead. If the SOX loses 5567, and remains below, and the SPX drops below 6416 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. S&P futures are up +9 as this is typed about 4 hours before the US opening bell for the regular session.

Stocks may spend another day idling, dancing to and fro, since the US Monthly Jobs Report drops in about 27 hours (that will impact the Fed rate decision on 9/17/25). Dancing in the Dark with the Boss, the Big Man on sax (Clarence), Max Weinburg banging the skins, and pretty actress Courtney Cox before she was famous.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a wild day to begin the holiday-shortened week that will end with a Jobs Report crescendo. The quant prints a dozen numbers today but goes nowhere, man. The algo number is 11 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between chips and volatility. The VIX jumped into the bear camp followed by semiconductors causing the flush lower in the SPX at the opening bell. But the pair turn positive again, then negative again, then positive again, then negative again, then positive again. The robot's internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move to the short side so the quant remains long.

VIX 18.23 and SOX 5565 dictate stock market direction currently. Both are in the bull camp so the bear's only need one to turn bearish to position the quant to go short. The difficult road for the bears tomorrow is that the SPX likely needs to drop below 6361 to allow the quant to go short and that is a long way down.

If volatility spikes, and chips collapse, like this morning, and one other parameter fails (maybe banks?), the quant may flip short immediately. For now, the bulls remain in possession of the stock market ball but it is difficult to hold with hooves.

Chips and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently with copper, commodities and banks waiting in the wings hoping to influence equities going forward. Today is a wild start to the month. Wake Me Up When September Ends.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36