Sunday, November 2, 2025

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The bulls rally stocks but it is irrelevant with the VIX moving higher. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

Retail sales, banks and volatility crippled the stock market last week but it is still limping along trying to crawl higher. XRT 83.90, XLF 52.84 and VIX 16.71 are the bull/bear lines in the sand that failed creating the last couple days of soggy stocks. You can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the premarket to see if the bears remain in good shape (remember, the VIX moves inverse to the stock market).

The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 metrics to turn bullish to start the upward stock market joy again. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6879 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep the 3 metrics above negative and at the same time punch copper, commodities and utilities lower to create more negativity. GTX below 3836 would greatly help the bears.

Utilities are falling apart when no one is looking. UTIL 1082.51 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 1111. There will be huge trouble for stocks if 1082 fails. Further, for the week of 11/10/25, UTIL 1107.90 is the line in the sand. Thus, watch UTIL, or DJU, at the end of the week on Friday at 4 PM EST. If UTIL is below 1108, there will be trouble in equity land the week of 11/10/25.

At any time over the next month, if UTIL 1048 fails, there is an extremely high probability that the stock market will crash. Utilities have trailed lower for 3 weeks an ominous sign. When utes lead the broad market lower, it means the pullback will be uber nasty. So UTIL will be fun to watch over the coming days.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning one before the opening bell and one shortly after. November trading begins tomorrow with only 2 months remaining in the year.

11/9/25; 7:00 PM EST =
11/7/25; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/25; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +13; signal line is +30
10/31/25; 10:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/31/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +32
10/30/25; 3:07 PM EST = +13; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +31
10/30/25; 11:42 AM EST = +13; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 11:15 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
10/30/25; 10:08 AM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29