Keybot the Quant remains short. As everyone talks about chips and utilities, and banks, and of course the new war in the Middle East that King Donnie started, retail stocks are the main parameter impacting stock market direction currently.
Oil will likely pop higher as bombs are dropped on Iran. Futures will trade this evening at 6 PM EST so that will provide the first gauge of the war along with Asia trading overnight. Trumpski will probably provide positive talking points between 3 PM and 6 PM today to try and goose the futures knowing that they will take a hit.
The retail line in the sand is the XRT 87.78 palindrome. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. XRT begins the week at 86.98, in the bear camp, creating market negativity. If XRT remains bearish, the stock market will weaken in proportion to the weakness in copper, chips and utes.
If the bulls can push XRT back above 87.78, they are back in biz. This was the struggle on Thursday and each time the bulls achieved this goal, they were punched in the face and fell back below. If the bulls turn XRT positive, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX rallies above 6879 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This scenario may not even be possible due to the new war that King Trump started this weekend but you have to wait and see how the numbers play out overnight.
The bulls also need lower volatility to prove they can send stocks higher especially to the SPX 8K+ targets most on Wall Street are touting for this year, with less than 10 months remaining already. Thus, the Wall Street analysts and strategists believe the SPX will gain over 100 points per month for every month for the remainder of the year. What are they smoking? It must be some really good stuff.
Bulls have no hope at taking stocks higher unless they push XRT above 87.78 and VIX below 17.35. Even if stocks would rally, and retail stocks rally, and the quant flips long, if the VIX does not drop below 17.35 it will not matter. Stocks will reverse and fall apart. Bulls desperately need lower volatility and it will likely spike overnight due to the new war.
Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Eve of Destruction. The pounding of the drums, the pride and disgrace.
3/8/26;
7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26;
10:00 AM EST =
3/1/26;
7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal
line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
