Thursday, January 22, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips into the bull camp this afternoon at 2:32 PM EST at SPX 2054. The NYA Index launches up through 10805 providing bull fuel; this number remains important. Watch VIX 15.85 and XLF 24.11; volatility and financials, respectively. Bulls will receive more fuel if XLF rises above 24.11 and/or VIX drops below 15.85. If neither occurs then you will know that the market upside will stall. If either one joins the bull camp, the upside party will strengthen. Bears need NYA under 10805 or they got nothing.

The algo takes another loss on the year due to the sideways choppy markets with both the algo program and the actual trading losing -0.8%. The SPX benchmark remains negative on the year. The SPX started the year at 2059. Keybot exited DXD and entered DDM. Even though a double ETF was employed on the last trade, the loss was not large since the Dow Industrials are moving in a tighter pattern than the other major indexes. As always stay alert for a whipsaw. The markets remain extremely erratic and unstable.

XLF is at 24.04 only seven pennies from the bull-bear line in the sand at 24.11. You can use this as a market proxy. From here, stocks will move with the XLF. Bears need to push XLF under 24 and lower to stop the huge upside market rally today.

1/25/15; 7:00 PM EST =
1/22/15; 2:32 PM EST = +36; signal line is +25; go long 2054; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -3.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2015 = -5.8%)
1/22/15; 2:20 PM EST = +36 signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
1/22/15; 10:43 AM EST = +22 signal line is +23
1/22/15; 9:42 AM EST = +6 signal line is +23
1/21/15; 10:19 AM EST = +22 signal line is +25
1/21/15; 9:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +26
1/20/15; 3:37 PM EST = +6; signal line is +27
1/20/15; 3:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +28
1/18/15; 7:00 PM EST = +6; signal line is +29
1/16/15; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +31
1/13/15; 1:25 PM EST = +3; signal line is +33
1/13/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +35
1/12/15; 12:54 PM EST = +3; signal line is +36
1/12/15; 10:51 AM EST = +19; signal line is +38
1/12/15; 9:46 AM EST = +3; signal line is +39
1/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +41; go short 2038; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -1.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual results for 2015 = -5.0%)

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