STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at 10:11 AM EST Friday morning at SPX 5643. It was a bloody day for the stock market, call it a mini-crash, as several metrics failed sending stocks to Hades. The algo number is 19 points below the signal line which is not much in these choppy, whipsaw markets with daily Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War drama mixed-in with Fed indecision and stubborn inflation.

The critical SPX 5662 and NYA 19335 bull/bear lines in the sand, that signal a cyclical bear market for the US stock market, failed yesterday morning and the rout was on. This failure points to many weeks and months of stock market sogginess ahead. Bulls desperately need to push the indexes back above the lines in the sand, otherwise, they are toast and the selling will only increase from here.

The banks also failed yesterday creating market mayhem. XLF drops below its key 49.76 line in the sand so the pain and misery deepened. 

The bears are in control but need to maintain weakness in SPX, NYA and XLF while at the same time turning commodities, copper and utilities bearish. All three are joyful so it is a tough ask. Watch the UTIL 992 level and then 986-987. The stock market will go into a crash profile at UTIL 992 and will crash if UTIL loses 986-987. It will be fun.

The bulls need to focus all their might on NYA 19335. Price begins Monday morning at 19270. If the NYA pops above 1933, it tells you that the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. A rally may not begin but it will at least stop the downside bleeding. If NYA remains below 19335 and trending lower, and you are a bull holding on to long positions, you will be beaten further into submission, and the blood will continue to flow on Wall and Broad.

The first quarter ends on Monday so there was some reverse window dressing in the market. For the quarterly statements, some of the investment houses may not want to show losing stocks like semiconductors in the funds, so they sell them off a la Friday, and on the statement they will be gone making the investor feel okay, even though the fund lost money on that stock and ditched it. This is called the Wall Street casino game. Remember it as you look at your quarterly statement and realize these folks are a bunch of crooks.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the algo program is a marginal loss and the actual trading loses a percent. For the year thus far with Q1 in the bag on Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -4.1%. The Wall Street analysts that promised SPX 7K and more this year are in full retreat with 5 hundo and more points chopped from their old estimates for their new estimates. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +4.1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11.9%. The quant program is outperforming the benchmark SPX index by 8 percentage-points and the actual trading is beating the benchmark by 16 percentage-points. There is still a lot of year remaining. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

NYA 19335, SPX 5662 and XLF 49.76 will tell you everything you need to know on Monday.

3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =  
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)
3/28/25; 10:10 AM EST = -3; signal line is -18
3/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -20
3/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is -22
3/27/25; 12:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -25
3/27/25; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is -26
3/25/25; 3:48 PM EST = -5; signal line is -29
3/25/25; 3:26 PM EST = -21; signal line is -31
3/25/25; 1:03 PM EST = -5; signal line is -33
3/25/25; 10:11 AM EST = -21; signal line is -34
3/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is -35
3/25/25; 9:38 AM EST = -2; signal line is -37
3/24/25; 9:44 AM EST = +14; signal line is -39
3/24/25; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -42
3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25; 3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25; 1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25; 10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
3/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -51
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53
3/17/25; 1:35 PM EST = -32; signal line is -53; go long 5667; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +13.2%)