Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. The bulls are Stayin' Alive. The music's loud and the women warm. The quant is following several moving parts but simplifying; utes, banks and the SPX index control stock market direction currently.
The robot is tracking UTIL 1003.65, XLF 50.00 and SPX 5666. The market-makers pushed the SPX up over 5666 in the final minute of trading on Friday. Do you think 5666 is important? Yes, it is, because it dictates the line between cyclical bull and cyclical bear markets.
Thus, the bulls are in full control of the stock market currently but they need the banks to turn bullish right away to keep the party going. Bulls need XLF above 50.00 or the upside party will fade. If XLF regains 50 heading higher, the focus would be VIX 16.86. If the VIX drops below 16.86, stocks will catapult higher to the moon.
The bears need a weaker SPX and utilities. Bears need the SPX to drop below 5666 pronto to prove that they still got game and are regrouping planning another attack. Bears need UTIL below 1004 to create market sogginess. Even with these two parameters turning bearish it will likely not be enough to get the quant to flip short. In addition to the SPX and utes, the bears will likely need NYA below 19300 or GTX below 3721. If 3 of the 4 flip metrics flip bearish, the quant will likely flip back to the short side.
Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. There are 6 trading days remaining in Q1. With all the moving parts and parameters sitting on bull/bear lines in the sand, the caution flag is out. Focus on the SPX, utilities and banks to determine market direction on Monday.
3/30/25;
7:00 PM EST =
3/28/25;
10:00 AM EST =
3/23/25;
7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25;
3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25;
1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25;
10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25;
9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25;
2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
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