Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. Lots of drama is ahead this week with Hollywood Donnie's Trump Trade and Tariff War kicking into high gear on Wednesday.
Bulls need NYA above 19335, SPX above 5662, and/or XLF above 49.76, otherwise, they are toast. The NYA and SPX targets are the lines in the sand for a cyclical bear market going forward. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will stop the stock market selling. 2 of the 3 turning bullish will start a comeback rally for stocks. If all 3 turn bullish, it may signal the start of a relief rally with legs, if King Donnie does not throw a wrench (spanner) into the works.
Bears need lower commodities and utes and need to pull GTX below 3728 and/or UTIL below 992. Stocks will take another leg lower and the SPX will test the 5505 prior low if either one fails.
Despite the big Friday selloff and soggy stock market, the utilities are holding up. Traders and investors still think like decades ago putting money into utes and staples believing they will hold up better in a recession. UTIL begins the week at 1011. If 992 fails, the stock market will be in serious trouble. Everything up to now is baby games, but if 992 fails, things are going to get real ugly. If UTIL fails at 986-987, the US stock market will likely crash and headed for a loss of from -20% to -80% (from the February 2025 record top) over the next couple years. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
If the bulls can hold the line with utes maintaining bullishness, the stock market will likely bottom over the next couple weeks and start a substantive relief rally. Thus, you have 5 metrics above controlling the fate of the stock market going forward. Simply watch those metrics which dictate what direction stocks are going.
Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow night for EOM and EOQ1 and the other on Friday morning before the opening bell.
4/6/25;
7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25;
9:00 AM EST =
3/31/25;
7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25;
7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25;
11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
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