STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 6711 after this morning's opening bell. Retail stocks and commodities jump into the bull camp driving the indexes higher. Everyone is doing the Wooly Bully with Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs. Hard-core bikers grooved to Sam the Sham in the 1960's and early 70's. Watch it now! Watch it!

The path ahead becomes trickier with more moving parts. The quant is tracking retail stocks, commodities, banks and volatility. That is the whole ball of wax controlling stock market direction. Retail stocks and commodities are bullish creating market lift while banks and volatility are bearish creating a pall on the stock market. One or two of the metrics will flip sides and tell you the path ahead.

The bull/bar lines in the sand are XRT 84.08, GTX 3814, XLF 52.87 and VIX 16.97, respectively. The bulls goosed XRT and GTX that are comfortably in the bull camp. XLF is at 52.79 only pennies away from 52.87 that will create another big up leg in the stock market with bulls throwing confetti. XLF trades at 52.83 only 4 pennies away in the after-hours trading. If the VIX falls below 16.97, the bulls will receive more juice as stocks will then strive to make new all-time record highs.

Obviously, the bears need to keep XLF and VIX in their camp while at the same time start smacking XRT and GTX lower. Interestingly, bears need XRT to turn bearish to place the quant in position to go short. GTX turning bearish may not be enough unless it jogs above and below 3814 a couple-few times.

If retail stocks fail into the bear camp, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX loses 6690 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for only 10 days, the algo program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year that is getting long in the tooth, the SPX is up  +14% with the quant program up +25% and the actual trading generated by the quant up +30% outperforming the benchmark by over 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)
10/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +16
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)