STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. It is an active week for the quant and it is not over yet. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are running the show. This week, all three metrics flipped bullish in quick order, that typically guarantees a model flip to the long side but not this time. Today, the same three metrics flip negative creating the stock market selloff. This drama will continue.

The bears are controlling the stock market with the algo number only 13 points below the signal line nothing to write home about. Stocks are chopping waiting for a definitive move up or down.

XRT 84.05, XLF 52.92, VIX 16.88 and GTX 3814.60 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The first 3 are in the bear camp creating negativity while GTX (commodities) is helping the bulls by a hair.

GTX is at 3818 so you can cough and it may slip back below the 3814.60 line in the sand that will bring more stock market selling.

XRT is at 83.96 only 9 pennies in the bear camp so you can burp and it can pop back above the 84.05 in a heartbeat.

Thus, Friday will be a cage match after the prescheduled number prints pre-market. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. It is retail stocks versus commodities, XRT vs. GTX.

Bears will begin biting hard and wreak havoc in the stock market into the weekend if GTX loses 3814.60. Bulls will get a foothold on the market and push stocks higher if they can push XRT above 84.05. One of them will flinch and tell you the market story.

Watch copper futures because a couple percent drop would spell trouble for stocks and a drop of -3% or more will likely tank the stock market.

Is the stock market six feet from the edge perhaps taking One Last Breath?

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39