STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new year of trading begins tomorrow at SPX 6846. Utes, commodities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction currently.

The bull/bear lines in the sand that the algorithm is tracking are UTIL 1088.89, UTIL 1062, GTX 3888 and XRT 84.97.

UTIL begins at 1068 below the key 1089, causing bearishness in the stock market, but is above the 1062, creating bullishness in the stock market. For next week, the 1089 is meaningless and replaced with 1114 so the bull's task becomes far harder. Utilities are going to need to rally strongly tomorrow to start making their way up above 11 hundo to 1114 to prove that the bulls can make new highs in the stock market. If UTIL collapses below 1062, all Hell will break loose in the stock market and a big drop lower would be on the come for equities.

GTX begins at 3916 not too far above the 3888 that assures bullish joy. Commodities, in general, need to drop about -1.6% to create stock market negativity.

XRT begins at 85.29 only about a percent away from the 84.97 line in the sand so pay close attention to retail plays such as Scamazon, Target on your back, and Walfart.

The XRT 84.97 and UTIL 1062 are the two metrics most at play currently. Stocks will chop sideways with a slight upward bias with the current status quo. Stocks will catapult higher if UTIL moves above 1089 or next week above 1114.

Stocks are in serious trouble if XRT loses 84.97 and/or if UTIL loses 1062. There will be blood and carnage on Wall Street. If either metric turns bearish, consider the turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX loses 6845 trending lower (only a point below where the SPX begins at 6846), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it to begin the new year. As utilities and retail stocks go, so goes the US stock market.

The first full week of trading begins on Monday, 1/5/26. The Santa rally that runs from Christmas Eve through the first 2 trading days of this year is negative so it needs to do some catching-up tomorrow and Monday to turn positive, otherwise, there will be no Santa rally.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Stock Market Turns in 2025

The SPX chart shows the Keybot the Quant stock market turns in 2025. Equities took the pipe at the start of the year collapsing to the April low. The AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people still spending money enjoying the wealth effect, and other happy talk, sends stocks higher with an above-average finish to the year for the SPX up +16.4%.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% and controls the actual trading that generated +35% outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more than 2x.

The funny thing about 2025 is how many common folks, with money in the stock market, brag and boast about the +16% return this year but when asked what they thought when they had lost -20% to -30% of their money in April, most are clueless. Some do not even know, or remember, that stocks had crashed in the springtime and others immediately proclaim that the stock market always goes up, as it proved in 2025. Wall Street trained the peons well.

For many decades, the US demographics were in our favor. Families kept expanding and so did technology and job opportunities. Productivity drives stock market gains. America is now an old folk's home. The senior Americans are the ones with all the dough in the stock market and that money will be needed for medical bills as the body gives out.

Further, many parents are helping their children get by in life and that will pull money from the market as the years roll forward. A barista at Starbucks, that they should call Tenbucks because that is what you usually spend when you walk in, is not socking away a couple grand per month into the US stock market going forward, as the wealthy folks pull money out.

Think twice about the standard mantra that stocks always go up going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting if the current highs in the SPX at 6900+, or 6900-7250, serve as a top for the next couple decades or more?

Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so hopefully the emotionless robot will lead the way to another successful year ahead. Happy New Year and Good Luck in 2026. When the Saints Go Marching In. Take it away Louis. There was only one Satchmo.

Keybot the Quant Logs Another Banner Year Gaining +35% Outperforming the Corrupt Hedge Funds

Keybot the Quant logs another banner year gaining +35% outperforming all the corrupt hedge funds on Wall Street. It's fun. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. The benchmark SPX, the S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, gains +16% in 2025, a great return, and the robot outperforms the benchmark by more than 2x. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% in 2025 and those commands execute the actual trading that yields +35% for the year.

Stocks collapsed into April but then stage a historic 9-month recovery rally fueled by the AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people continuing to spend money, and other happy talk that typically occurs at a major top a la 1999-2000 and 2008-2009. It will be interesting to see if trouble materializes or if the bigtime upside party continues.

The algorithm is re-zeroed to keep the statistics in line. Nothing's changed. The robot did not print any numbers this week except for today with the EOM, EOQ4, EOH2 and EOY2025.

Keybot the Quant remains long in SSO starting at 57.92 and the 2026 year of trading begins at SPX 6846.

There were only 24 stock market turns (long to short or short to long) in 2025 a very low number compared to the last few years. There are usually about 35 turns in a given year and two years ago there were 40 turns. There was not as much sideways chop in 2025 until the last few months of the year. Instead, generally, it was a down year to start the first 4 months and then the last 8 months were up.

Trading is all about 'what have you done for me lately'. The past is over and it is time to move on with a new year where everything starts from scratch again. Utilities, commodities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction as the new year begins. Welcome 2026. Guy Lombardo and Auld Lang Syne.

1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/9/26; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/1/26; Begin 2026 Data = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2026 on the Long Side from SPX 6846

All Data 0%. Begin 2026

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START 2026 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/26; 4:10 AM EST

START 2026 PROGRAM

Copyright Enforced. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025. 2026. Keybot the Quant. The Keystone Speculator. K E Stone. All Rights Reserved.

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END OF 2025 RESULTS:

The SPX (S&P 500) Benchmark Index Gains an Above-Average +16.4% in 2025

(SPX Started 2025 at 5882 and Ended at 6846 Catapulting 964 Points Higher Repeating the Same Big Outperformances to the Upside as 2023 and 2024; Bull Market 3 Years)

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2025: +26.9%

KEYBOT THE QUANT ACTUAL TRADING RETURN FOR 2025 INCLUDING ALL COMMISSIONS, COSTS AND FEES: +34.6%

Keybot the Quant has never printed a losing year

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish (long) position and a bearish (short) position seeking the smoothest path through the trading year using the S&P 500 (SPX; the US stock market) as the benchmark comparison index

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2025: 24

1/1/2025	5882	Go Short	4:20 AM	PSQ	37.40
1/2/2025	5928	Cover Short	10:07 AM	PSQ	37.08
1/2/2025	5928	Go Long	10:07 AM	DIA	427.69
1/2/2025	5899	Sell Long	11:00 AM	DIA	426.29
1/2/2025	5899	Go Short	11:00 AM	DOG	26.50
1/6/2025	5988	Cover Short	9:36 AM	DOG	26.40
1/6/2025	5988	Go Long	9:36 AM	QQQ	524.60
1/7/2025	5955	Sell Long	10:20 AM	QQQ	520.66
1/7/2025	5955	Go Short	10:20 AM	RWM	18.53
1/15/2025	5920	Cover Short	9:36 AM	RWM	18.47
1/15/2025	5920	Go Long	9:36 AM	IVV	592.76
2/21/2025	6050	Sell Long	1:02 PM	IVV	606.52
2/21/2025	6050	Go Short	1:02 PM	SDS	18.74
3/17/2025	5667	Cover Short	1:35 PM	SDS	21.28
3/17/2025	5667	Go Long	1:35 PM	SSO	84.79
3/28/2025	5643	Sell Long	10:11 AM	SSO	83.68
3/28/2025	5643	Go Short	10:11 AM	SDS	21.25
4/2/2025	5656	Cover Short	11:27 AM	SDS	21.16
4/2/2025	5656	Go Long	11:27 AM	DDM	92.15
4/3/2025	5488	Sell Long	9:36 AM	DDM	87.50
4/3/2025	5488	Go Short	9:36 AM	SH	45.52
4/22/2025	5254	Cover Short	10.41 AM	SH	46.93
4/22/2025	5254	Go Long	10:41 AM	SPY	524.32
5/30/2025	5859	Sell Long	12:31 PM	SPY	584.83
5/30/2025	5859	Go Short	12:31 PM	SDS	18.75
6/2/2025	5925	Cover Short	2:23 PM	SDS	18.34
6/2/2025	5925	Go Long	2:23 PM	SPY	591.32
7/30/2025	6348	Sell Long	3:00 PM	SPY	632.85
7/30/2025	6348	Go Short	3:00 PM	SDS	15.99
8/22/2025	6448	Cover Short	10:02 AM	SDS	15.60
8/22/2025	6448	Go Long	10:02 AM	SSO	104.86
10/10/2025	6692	Sell Long	11:04 AM	SSO	112.20
10/10/2025	6692	Go Short	11:04 AM	SDS	14.47
10/20/2025	6711	Cover Short	9:37 AM	SDS	14.38
10/20/2025	6711	Go Long	9:37 AM	SSO	112.20
10/29/2025	6856	Sell Long	2:41 PM	SSO	117.25
10/29/2025	6856	Go Short	2:41 PM	QID	19.51
11/10/2025	6805	Cover Short	9:36 AM	QID	20.18
11/10/2025	6805	Go Long	9:36 AM	SSO	115.31
11/18/2025	6637	Sell Long	9:47 AM	SSO	109.69
11/18/2025	6637	Go Short	9:47 AM	QID	21.65
11/24/2025	6672	Cover Short	10:33 AM	QID	21.48
11/24/2025	6672	Go Long	10:33 AM	QLD	67.64
12/16/2025	6788	Sell Long	9:46 AM	QLD	69.05
12/16/2025	6788	Go Short	9:46 AM	SDS	70.68
12/18/2025	6797	Cover Short	10:29 AM	SDS	70.48
12/18/2025	6797	Go Long	10:29 AM	SSO	57.31
1/1/2026	6846	Sell Long	4:10 AM	SSO	57.92

 

Date – SPX – Position – Time Stamp – ETF – Price

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2025 RESULTS

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/26; 4:10 AM EST

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1/1/26; Algorithm Zeroed for 2026 Data EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2025 = +40; signal line is +25; go long 6846; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 Final = +16.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 Final = +26.9%)(Actual results this trade = +1.1%; Actual results for 2025 Final = +34.6%)
12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/22/25; 11:06 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24
12/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:16 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:02 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:20 AM EST = +11; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 11:22 AM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +25; go long 6797 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.5%)