STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. Utilities and volatility remain in the bull camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. However, banks are beaten down after King Donnie proclaims a ceiling on credit card interest. The banksters create today's negativity.

Tomorrow is easy. As banks go, so goes the stock market. XLF 54.29 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price ruptures this level this afternoon creating bearishness in the stock market. Price is at 54.23 so you will know right away which way the stock market will go. XLF will trade in the pre-market.

The bears need the SPX to drop below 6939 trending lower and the quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn is in the title line.

Hump day is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bulls need to push XLF back above 54.29 and higher and they have nothing to worry about; equities will continue rallying. Bears need SPX below 6939 to flip the model short so watch the S&P futures to see if -25 points are on tap, or not.

The stage is set. The bears already have one paw in the door prying it open. The bears need SPX 6939. If VIX moves above 16.88, that will create more stock market carnage. If UTIL loses 1064, stocks will collapse down the rabbit hole of pain and misery.

The bulls need stronger banks and financial stocks like insurers, and the XLF above 54.29, to throw confetti and celebrate another stick-save for the stock market.

As a side note, check the $GTX chart at stockcharts.com. Commodities, goods inflation, is breaking out higher as everyone is relaxed about inflation after this morning's data. Inflation has been difficult to forecast because in recent months it jukes when you think it will jive, and visa versa, like trying to trade choppy markets. In about a month, there will likely be a noticeable pop in inflation. Granted, the bulk of the breakout is due to the outrageous rise in base and precious metals, but buying a silver bracelet for your honey just got more expensive so did a lot of gadgets and electronics. Was she worth it? Sometimes, You Never Can Tell.

1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28