STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant turns to the bear side at SPX 6846. Does that ring a bell? Yes, that is the exact number the year started at so it has been a 20-day nothing-burger. Volatility and banks are controlling stock market direction currently. VIX 17.00 and XLF 54.28 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. VIX price is above and XLF price is below so both are negative and creating bearishness in the stock market.

The buy-the-dip crowd is active right now and XLF 54.28 will tell you the story. Traders can buy all they want but if the XLF remains below 54.28, and VIX above 17.00, stocks are going to remains soggy. Bears need weaker utes and retail stocks to create a flush lower. Bears need UTIL under 1067 to create market carnage. Bears need XRT below 87.20 that will create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Bulls simply need to get XLF back above 54.28 and all will be fine. The bulls will then work on pushing VIX below 17.00 and the upside party in stocks would continue. Thus, stay alert for a whipsaw but the quant likely needs both vol and banks in the bull camp before it would flip long.

On the last trade that ran for 8 trading days, the quant program loses -1.4% and the actual trading, generated by the quant, loses -1.3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is dead flat. The algo program is down about a percent and the actual trading is flat on the year. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's to reduce risk in these choppy whipsaw markets. Whip It good. 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/14/26; 3:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:45 AM EST = +10; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 6:31 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
1/14/26; 5:41 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/13/26; 3:11 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
1/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +28
1/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +27
1/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +26; go long 6940 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.4%)