STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short after King Donnie creates more turmoil around the world. This time it is Greenland drama that Donnie creates out of spite for not receiving his little peace medal from a committee in Norway. What color is the sky in his world?

S&P futures are tanking on the Donnie drama down -80 points. US markets are closed today for the Martin Luther/Don/Rodney/Billie Jean King Day. A lot can happen over the next day before US stocks come back on line. King Donnie waves his hand sending stocks in one direction or the other likely based on the positioning of his wealthy friends and family. Such is crony capitalism.

Utilities, volatility and banks will dictate the outcome over the next couple days. If Trumpski backtracks on his Greenland temper tantrum, you will see the VIX fall below 16.87 signaling the all-clear for stocks to rally. If the VIX remains above 16.87, US stocks are headed lower.

The banks can be used as a gauge, along with vol, of stock market pain. XLF 54.30 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price begins at 54.44. As the Donnie drama plays out, if XLF does not drop below 54.30, the bears are no real threat. Stocks would be expected to muddle sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF fails at 54.30, that is serious business, and indicates that US stocks are sliding down the rabbit hole of doom. If stocks are shedding points as futures indicate, watch the UTIL 1065 bull/bear line in the sand. Price begins at 1099 so the bulls are content sitting 34 points above, however, if the utilities fail, a stock market crash is on the table.

Thus, bulls need VIX below 16.87 to breathe a sigh of relief. Bears need to keep the VIX above 16.87, now at 18.70, to maintain negativity. Next, bears need XLF below 54.30 that will kick in more pain and misery for stocks. Next, the bears need UTIL below 1065 to open up a trap-door for the stock market where stocks will be tumbling bigtime lower in earnest.

If the SPX drops below 6925, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, and that appears to be on the table. You have to wait and see what the 1's and 0's say, however, because internal parameters will have to fully latch to permit the move.

Today and tomorrow will be interesting as all the corrupt people on Earth meet in Davos to keep their lies straight and plan future nefarious activities. Davos is where the billionaires tell the millionaires how to live. Let the festivities begin. Will the Shiny Happy People remain shiny and happy? 

1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
1/19/26; 3:06 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
1/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +29
1/15/26; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +29