STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 5755 with only 20 minutes left in the trading session today.  The stock market has been bumping along unable to commit to the upside or downside. It would not be surprising to see a whipsaw this week. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line so the bull's grip is not very strong.

Bulls need VIX below 16.00 and it is above 21. The rally got nothing until it can be proven with lower volatility. This is extremely odd and rare behavior because the stock market at or near all-time highs should see a VIX far lower at the 10-14 area right now. Something strange is occurring.

Bears need weaker chips, banks, copper and commodities. Copper may be recoiling. Watch the CPER 27.25 bull/bear line in the sand. Bank earnings in a couple days may create excitement.

On the last trade, that only ran for about a week, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading is down a couple percent. For the year thus far, with Q4 underway, the SPX is up a huge +21% a wild gain especially since everyone expected a recession at the start of the year. The Keybot the Quant program is up about +6% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% thus far in 2024. Keybot exited QID and entered SSO.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The price action remains wild with the VIX above 20. Expect more wild intraday and day to day price swings in stocks going forward.

If the SPX moves above 5753-5770 (depends on internal parameters), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It will be key if the S&P futures are positive or negative overnight into the Monday session.

The bears need weaker chips, commodities and banks if they want to retain their stock market control. Bears need SOX under 5060, GTX below 3560 and XLF under 44.19. Any 1 of the 3 will immediately put the bears back in the pole position with stocks dropping. All 3 turning negative would send the stock market far lower.

If none of the 3 parameters turn bearish, the bears are in trouble and the bulls will likely takeover. However, the bulls need the VIX below 15.67 to verify that more upside for stocks is real and on the way. Bulls got nothing going forward, even if the quant flips bullish, unless the VIX falls below 15.67.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Focus on the SPX 5753, SOX 5060 and GTX 3560 bull/bear lines in the sand.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = 
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the port workers go on strike and Iran fires missiles at Israel. It is not a lovely day in the neighborhood. Today was funny. The chips skidded off the road and wrecked into a tree turning bearish creating stock market negativity, however, the commodities turn bullish. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 7 points below the signal line.

The juxtaposition (how do you like that ten-dollar college word?) of chips and commodities adds a new twist to the stock market game. Bears need weaker banks and commodities if they want to create carnage. Bulls need stronger chips and lower volatility if they want to take control of the stock market again.

Bears need GTX below 3553 and it is only 22 points away from turning bearish. Bears need XLF below 44.19 which will also create market mayhem.

Bulls need SOX above 5050 and it is only 25 points away from turning bullish. Bulls need VIX below 15.67 which will also create market joy. Either one will place the quant in position to potentially flip long.

Condensing that further, it is a battle between chips and commodities. The cage match is set. Two will enter tomorrow but only one will exit and dictate the road ahead. Bears win big if they pull GTX below the 3553 palindrome. Bulls win big if they can push SOX above 5050. One of them will flinch. You do not need to watch the indexes. Watch the chips and commodities and they will tell you what the broad stock indexes will do. The SPX is at 5709 where it flipped short yesterday going nowhere fast.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 5709 as Fed Chairman Powell was speaking. Volatility and commodities remain in the bear camp creating negativity while the banks and chips remain in the bull camp creating positivity in the stock market. The algo number is only 4 points below the signal line so the downside is not yet showing enthusiasm.

Bears need SOX below 5040 and/or XLF below 44.04 to verify the downside and begin the carnage. If these two metrics remain bullish, the bears will probably fold like a cheap suit and volatility will drop.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3.1%. For the year thus far with Q3 ending today, the benchmark SPX, that is the US stock market, is up about +20% this year. The bulls cheer their good fortune. The Keybot the Quant algo is up about +7% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +12% underperforming the benchmark by 8 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 8:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
9/26/24; 8:08 AM EST = +32; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 3:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
9/25/24; 12:48 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/25/24; 12:04 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
9/25/24; 11:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
9/25/24; 11:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28
9/25/24; 11:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26
9/25/24; 11:34 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24
9/25/24; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +22
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
9/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +17
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
9/23/24; 2:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
9/23/24; 1:55 PM EST = +34; signal line is +13
9/23/24; 12:04 PM EST = +18; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 11:56 AM EST = +34; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:42 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +10
9/23/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
9/23/24; 9:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +8
9/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +8
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/20/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/19/24; 9:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is +7
9/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:06 PM EST = +2; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5; go long 5612; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +9.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX trends lower and falls below 5727 (will start the new week at 5738), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, watch the S&P futures overnight to see if they are soggy by 11 points.

The battle for US stock market directional control is volatility and commodities in the bear camp creating negativity versus the banks and chips in the bull camp helping stocks to float higher and for the SPX to print a new all-time high at 5767 and new all-time closing high at 5745 on 9/26/24.

Bears need the SPX below 5727 and trending lower and they will take over control of the stock market. Bears need XLF below 44.04, which is about a -2.1% drop in the financials needed, and/or SOX below 5040, which is about a -3.4% loss in semiconductors needed to create more negativity. These two metrics turning bearish will create serious negativity and a lot of bearish price action but bears will have to bring their A game to reverse these high-flying sectors.

Bulls need VIX below 15.26. This was a key battle last week and will continue in the week ahead. Very simply, bulls win big going forward if the VIX loses 15.26 but bears will create market carnage the longer that the VIX remains above 15.26 especially if it begins moving higher (and Friday it did with the VIX near 17).

Bulls also need GTX above the 3553 palindrome to create more stock market upside that equates to about a +1% gain in broad commodities. 

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday, that is the end of the month (EOM) and quarter (EOQ3), and the other on Friday morning. Three-quarters of the year, 75%, is in the bag with the final 3 months of trading remaining in 2024.

Whittling the above mumbo-jumbo down to something simple, watch SPX 5727 and VIX 15.26. The bulls will create new all-time highs if VIX loses 15.26. Bears win big if VIX remains above 15.26 and if the SPX loses 5727. Easy-peasy. It's Easy like Sunday morning.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 3 points below the signal line. The bears are stretching their legs looking for something to slash. If the SPX trends lower and slips below 5721, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Bears do not want a gap-down move since this would delay any potential move to the short side for about 90 minutes. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5767.37 and a new all-time closing high at 5745.37. Thus, price needs to drop from 5745 to 5721 to flip the quant short a loss of only 24 points if watching S&P futures.

The VIX continues oscillating above and below the important 15.25 line in the sand. Lower volatility sends stocks higher and higher volatility sends stocks lower. The VIX is the rudder steering the stock market ship currently.

Bears need the SPX to drop below 5721 and then for chips and banks to weaken which will accelerate the downside for US stocks.

Bulls need to prevent the SPX from falling below 5721 and at the same time send the VIX below 15.25 that will guarantee upside victory going forward. Bulls will then focus on rallying commodities to create more upside.

SPX 5721 and VIX 15.25 will tell the stock market story tomorrow. Watch them like a hawk. Bears win big and the model flips short if the SPX loses 5721. Bulls win big if the VIX is pushed below 15.25.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 8:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
9/26/24; 8:08 AM EST = +32; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 3:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
9/25/24; 12:48 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/25/24; 12:04 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
9/25/24; 11:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
9/25/24; 11:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28
9/25/24; 11:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26
9/25/24; 11:34 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24
9/25/24; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +22
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
9/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +17
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Markets are running wild. "Big fine Daddy, please don't start runnin' wild," as Roy Brown sings about Big Town. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. The robot prints 11 numbers today to begin the week so something must be going on under the surface.

The bulls pumped the semiconductors today creating a new SPX all-time closing high at 5718.57 another all-time high bookended by the '57'. The SPX all-time intraday high, the highest number ever, remains at 5737.57. If all this holds, it will be the 'Ole Heinz 57 Top'.

SOX 5016.50 is the bull/bear line in the sand that will send the broad stock market one way or the other. SOX ended the Monday session at 5026 so the bulls are celebrating at the tavern slappin' each other's backs while drinking booze.

Interestingly, commodities turned bullish but in short order failed back into the bear camp. The GTX 3553 palindrome is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 3528 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility remains in the bear camp. Bulls need VIX below 15.26 to verify the stock market rally. If VIX remains above 15.26, it proves that the stock market rally was phony-baloney and will roll over and die.

Copper remains in play with bears needing CPER below 26.51 to create market mayhem.

The robot is focused on SOX 5016.50, GTX 3553 and VIX 15.26 as the three main drivers of stock market direction, currently; chips, commodities and volatility, respectively. SOX is creating upside market joy while GTX and VIX are creating stock market sogginess.

If SOX falls below 5016.50, and the SPX falls below 5704 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. What may be needed is a jog move with the chips to push the robot into going short. If you see SOX fall below 5016.50, but after 7 to 15 minutes, maybe more, it comes back above, again for about 7 to 15 minutes, maybe more, and then fails through the 5016.50, that will likely signal that the stock market is about to weaken and begin a broad down move.

VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so a drop below 15.26 in the early morning hours will mean that stocks will be off to the races higher in the US session. Stocks will remains flat or soggy if VIX remains above 15.26 overnight, and then you want to watch SOX after the opening bell. You can watch GTX on stock charts using '$GTX'.

Tuesday will be a decisive day. The VIX has dropped to where it is time to make the move on the 15.26 or go home. All 3 metrics are at key pivot points and whatever they do, the stock market will follow. I Will Follow Him by Peggy March.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
9/23/24; 2:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
9/23/24; 1:55 PM EST = +34; signal line is +13
9/23/24; 12:04 PM EST = +18; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 11:56 AM EST = +34; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:42 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +10
9/23/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
9/23/24; 9:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +8
9/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +8
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after Fed Chairman Powell pumps the stock market higher. The bulls are in control but the algo number is only 11 points above the signal line. The SPX prints the highest number in history on Thursday, 9/19/24, at 5733.57. It is the 'Heinz 57 varieties' all-time high.

Banks, copper and retail stocks were key to the stock market rally so the bears need these metrics to weaken if they want to regain control. Bears need CPER below 26.40 and/or RTH below 207.80 a formidable task.

Bulls have an easier road to maintain control of the stock market. Chips, commodities and volatility are in the bear camp and any of these metrics turning bullish will send stocks higher and higher. Bulls need SOX above 5018, GTX above 3556, and/or VIX below 15.09. Stocks will run into the stratosphere if all three turn bullish. Semiconductors need to gain about +0.4% and commodities about +1.0% which are much easier goals than the bear's path.

Watch copper and retail stocks. If they are weak, that will be a sign that the stock market is starting to roll over lower. If copper, retail stocks and banks remain strong, the bears got butpkis. If copper futures lose about -1.7%, and the SPX falls below 5674 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Consider the imminent turn to be in play if CPER loses 26.40, RTH loses 207.80, or if XLF loses 43.90.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Focus on copper and chips to make it simple. Bulls win big with stronger chips. Bears win big with weaker copper and retail stocks (AMZN). Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/20/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/19/24; 9:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is +7
9/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the quant flips to the long side on Friday morning at SPX 5612. The bulls retake the stock market market baton and run ahead with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. That is not saying much. The stock market is all over the map including sectors, indexes and individual tickers so do not be surprised if the robot whipsaws back to the short side. Goin' up, goin' down, goin' up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll, like Jimmy sings.

The banks started falling over the edge last hump day but a stick save occurred. This steadied stocks and then retail stocks were pumped hard giving the broad stock market a big push higher. Scamazon was up +9% last week. Interestingly, despite the upside orgy in stocks, pumped by retail stocks, banks and copper, the rally occurs without the chips or volatility. Extremely odd.

The quant is tracking four metrics that are controlling stock market direction currently. Financials and copper are in the bull camp creating the upside orgy. Semiconductors and volatility are in the bear camp asking why everyone is so happy?

To continue the stock market rally and print new record highs for the SPX above 5670, bulls need chips and volatility. Bulls need SOX above 5022 and VIX below 14.95. Any one of the two will send the SPX to its record high and both turning bullish will guarantee new all-time highs.

It is odd that the VIX remains in the bear camp despite the comeback rally. If VIX remains above 14.95, the rally is meaningless and will wither on the vine and fade, like past loves. For the big rally last week, and if you are bullish, you are worried that the VIX remains elevated and semi's have not fully recovered. The SOX only needs +0.8% more to turn bullish and provide fuel to the broad market so watch some chip names in the pre-market since they will tell you where SOX is headed.

The bears need weaker financials and copper. Bears need XLF below 43.52 and CPER below 26.32. Any one of the two will immediately stop the stock market rally and both will begin a more sustainable downside path for stocks.

CPER closed on Thursday exactly at the 26.32 the robot called out ahead of time. Copper continued its buoyancy on Friday providing the push higher for stocks. CPER ends the week at 26.40 only a whisker from the bear camp at 26.32. Watch copper futures overnight into Monday morning to see if they drop more than -0.3%, if so, stocks will be soggy with a downward bias. If copper futures are flat or higher, the bulls are coming to play again on Monday.

It's a coin-flip now for the stock market. The circus continues with Pope Powell riding in on his pale green horse on Wednesday to announce the big 25-bip, or maybe 50-bip, rate cut.

The caution flag is out since markets can change on a dime. If CPER loses 26.32, only a hair away, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 5602 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. 

Semi's, volatility, copper and banks are all that matter currently with copper at the top of the heap. Focus on these four and you will know where stocks are headed.

On the last trade, that ran for 10 days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. Whipsaw price action wreaks havoc on robots. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up almost +18%. The bulls are puffing their chests calling for the SPX to print over 6K this year. The Keybot the Quant program is up +5% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% underperforming the benchmark by 9 percentage points. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:06 PM EST = +2; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5; go long 5612; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +9.3%)
9/11/24; 12:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +4
9/11/24; 10:46 AM EST = -14; signal line is +5
9/11/24; 10:43 AM EST = +2; signal line is +7
9/11/24; 10:27 AM EST = -14; signal line is +7
9/9/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +9
9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
9/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = -14; signal line is +11
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
9/5/24; 12:40 PM EST = +2; signal line is +12
9/5/24; 12:20 PM EST = -14; signal line is +12
9/3/24; 2:04 PM EST = +2; signal line is +13; go short 5544; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 25 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising along after the collapse of the chips sector last week. Throw the dirty SOX into the laundry basket. Retail stocks next turned sour creating the drop in the overall stock market.

For the week ahead, the quant is currently tracking RTH 206.00 and XLF 43.31 as the two key metrics controlling stock market direction. RTH, retail stocks, are creating negativity in the stock market while the XLF, banks and financials, are creating positivity in equities.

Bears need the banks to falter to start kicking in some serious downside in US stocks. Bears need XLF to fall below 43.31, that is -2.3% from current levels, to create market mayhem. The US stock market will fall apart if the banks fail so watch individual names such as BAC, where Warren Buffett is ditching shares, GS, WFC, C, the usual suspects, to see if they start dropping -2% or -3%. That would spell serious trouble ahead.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks to stop the downward slide in US stocks. Bulls need RTH above 206.00, that is +1.0% from current levels, to stabilize the stock market into a sideways pattern that stops the selling. Bulls will need further help, such as pumping copper and chips higher, and volatility lower, if they want to regain control of the stock market. This appears a difficult task right now but things can change fast.

If RTH remains below 206.00 and XLF above 43.31, the stock market will stagger sideways like a drunk at the honky-tonk last evening that had to be shown the door. I Like Austin, but I Love San Antone. Bulls win with stronger retail stocks while bears win with weaker banks.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning; Friday the 13th for the superstitious folks. 13's my lucky number, to you it means stay inside. Bad Luck. 

9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
9/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = -14; signal line is +11
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
9/5/24; 12:40 PM EST = +2; signal line is +12
9/5/24; 12:20 PM EST = -14; signal line is +12
9/3/24; 2:04 PM EST = +2; signal line is +13; go short 5544; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon at SPX 5544. The semiconductors collapsed sending the broad stock market lower. SOX was bludgeoned creating market angst. The bears are back in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only 11 points below the signal line.

Bears likely need retail stocks to fall apart to create more negativity and the robot is tracking the RTH 206.25 bull/bear line in the sand. Price starts at 208.64 today only a percent on the bull side. If RTH loses 206.25, the broad stock market will deteriorate further. Watch AMZN.

Obviously, bulls need the chips to recover but they are severely beaten and lying behind the dumpster in the alleyway. RTH 206.25 will dictate if the bears will growl more or if stocks will stumble sideways into the critical US Monthly Job Report on Friday morning.

On the last trade, that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant each post marginal gains. For the year, now two-thirds complete, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +16%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +6% and the actual trading is up +11% underperforming the broad market by about 5 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/3/24; 2:04 PM EST = +2; signal line is +13; go short 5544; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.4%)
9/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 11:02 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 10:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +15
8/30/24; 9:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/29/24; 2:16 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 1:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
8/29/24; 1:17 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is +18
8/29/24; 11:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:49 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:02 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:53 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/27/24; 11:31 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/27/24; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13
8/26/24; 12:45 PM EST = +17; signal line is +11
8/26/24; 12:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 12:20 PM EST = +17; signal line is +9
8/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +1; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 10:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +6
8/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3
8/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +2
8/22/24; 3:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains long
8/20/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -1
8/19/24; 10:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is -2
8/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -4
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5
8/16/24; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is -7
8/16/24; 3:35 PM EST = +17; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 2:41 PM EST = +31; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 1:56 PM EST = +17; signal line is -9
8/16/24; 11:45 AM EST = +31; signal line is -11
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/15/24; 10:37 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13; go long 5520; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after last week's bull/bear battle. Stocks stumble sideways with a slight upward bias because the VIX will not give up the 14.71 line in the sand. The bulls teased a couple times taking the VIX sub 15 but could not achieve the goal of dropping below 14.71 which would firmly verify the upside move in stocks and its continuation. Stocks were bullish the last two trading days into the 3-day holiday weekend as is typically the case.

The bulls remain in charge but the algo number is only 4 points above the signal line. Flip a coin. Volatility is a key mover of stocks currently, as mentioned, and also copper, commodities and the semiconductors.

The bulls need VIX below 14.71, CPER above 26.55 and/or GTX above 3607. Any 1 of the 3 flipping into the bull camp will create another leg higher for the US stock market. A VIX below 14.71 will create an upside buying orgy so obscene it would make Caligula blush. So the bulls are praying for lower vol and higher copper and commodities to boost stocks higher. Commodities made a run higher last week but that petered out.

The bears need SOX below 5132 to reintroduce stock market weakness and selling. The chip battle was a knock-down drag-out fight last week as the quant printout shows. The semiconductors are running the stock market show currently and created last weeks buoyancy in the stock market.

US markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The uber important US Monthly Jobs Report is on tap Friday morning and will be the Superbowl of economic data. The US unemployment rate is 4.3%. If it jumps higher to 4.4% and more, Pope Powell is probably late with the rate cuts and may go 50-bips this month. If the rate stays around this 4.1% to 4.3% range and lower, a 25-bip cut is likely on the table for 9/18/24. 

The stage is set for Tuesday. It looked like the bears were taking control last week and both copper and semiconductors failed into the bear camp creating negativity, but by the end of the week, the chips recovered to steady the stock market ship. This battle continues.

Keeping it simple, bulls win big with either VIX below 14.71 and/or CPER above 26.55. If both turn bullish, the euphoric SPX 6,000 calls for this year may actually become a reality.

However, if the VIX remains elevated, and copper weak, and the SOX loses 5132, there will be blood flowing on Wall and Broad. Watch the futures to know what is going on with volatility and copper. Bulls need a +0.9% rise in copper futures to turn on the afterburners and send stocks to the moon. Bears need a -0.5% drop in semiconductors to reintroduce stock market weakness and selling. Volatility, copper and chips are all that matter to the stock market currently.

If the SOX loses 5132, and the SPX drops below 5582 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short so the imminent turn notation is in the title line for now. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Two-thirds of 2024 is toast with only one-third remaining. Happy Labor Day. Lightning Crashes during labor.

9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 11:02 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 10:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +15
8/30/24; 9:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/29/24; 2:16 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 1:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
8/29/24; 1:17 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:49 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:02 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:53 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Semiconductors jump into the bear camp to start the week but copper jumps into the bull camp each nullifying the other. Today plays out with the chips turning bullish again so the bulls are throwing confetti swigging down Fed wine like it is water. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

Traders are awaiting NVDA earnings tomorrow after the closing bell, only 22 hours away, since Emperor Jensen will tell global traders how to trade stocks. The stock market battle is currently between copper and chips in the bull camp creating upside joy, and, commodities and volatility in the bear camp creating downside pressure in the stock market.

Bulls will win big if the VIX drops below 14.71. Stocks are stalled currently because VIX remains in the bear camp. There will be no further rally in stocks unless the VIX drops below 14.71. If stocks rally tomorrow, but the VIX does not drop below 14.71, it is a bull trap and stocks will reverse and drop. If stocks rally and the VIX loses 14.71, it is off to the races higher for stocks. Bulls will also benefit bigtime if GTX moves above 3612.

Bears need SOX below 5132 and/or CPER below 26.58 to create stock market negativity. Obviously, if NVIDIA soils the sheets tomorrow evening, SOX will collapse, and, conversely, if NVDA yearnings are a big hit, the SOX and stock market will rally to the sky. Copper futures need to drop -0.9% overnight for CPER to hit the 26.58 bull/bear line in the sand so that bears watching.

If either SOX or CPER turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play. If 1 of the 2 occur, and the SPX drops below 5593, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX drop represents a -32 point drop in the S&P futures overnight. Tomorrow may be an eventful day, however, the NVDA show does not begin until after the closing bell.

It could not be easier. If VIX drops below 14.71, it is a bull victory and stocks will move higher with traders buying equities with both fists at the ask. If either SOX drops below 5132 or CPER below 26.58 (-0.9% in copper futures), there will be Hell to pay in the stock market as stocks begin crumbling lower.

9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/27/24; 11:31 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/27/24; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13
8/26/24; 12:45 PM EST = +17; signal line is +11
8/26/24; 12:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 12:20 PM EST = +17; signal line is +9
8/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +1; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 10:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +6
8/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after Pope Powell pumps the stock market higher with promises of rate cuts as far as the eye can see. Powell, after a long bender listening to Midnight Oil tunes, proclaims that 'the time has come' to goose the markets further into the stratosphere making the rich richer. It is fun to watch the corrupt crony American casino. The algo number is only 14 points above the signal line but it is plenty for the bulls to remain in control of the stock market. Caution, however, is warranted.

The VIX 14.82 bull/bear line in the sand identified by the quant, the stock market rudder, remains dominant and the key metric impacting stock market direction. VIX will begin the new week at 15.86 in the bear camp causing market negativity. Bulls will celebrate if VIX drops below 14.82.

Bulls need copper and commodities to rally for the stock market to further rally. First, bulls need the VIX below 14.82, then CPER (copper) above 26.59, then GTX (commodities) above 3615. These positive developments will send stocks to the moon with bulls dancing on tabletops and more Wall Street analysts calling for SPX 6,000 within the next 17 weeks.

Conversely, bears need to maintain the higher volatility and send the VIX higher over 20, while pulling the chips back into their camp. Semiconductors stuck a shiv into the bears ribs last week allowing the bulls to run stocks higher. Bears need the SOX to drop below 5125 which will usher-in stock market negativity. The quant will likely want to flip short if the chips collapse but on Monday the robot likely needs the SPX to drop below 5585 heading lower to flip short. The S&P 500 starts the week at 5635 so that would be 50 points of downside. This would occur if the VIX spikes higher.

Easy-peasy. Bulls need lower vol and stronger copper and commodities and the futures markets overnight will hint at this direction forward. Bears need weaker chips to create a new round of stock market carnage so watch SOX, XSD, SMH, NVDA, INTC, AMD, etc... VIX 14.82 remains the key metric right now and is currently steering the stock market ship into Troubled Waters.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other on Friday. The month of trading (EOM) ends on Friday and September trading begins next Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Stocks tend to be bullish the two days in front of a holiday weekend (this Thursday and Friday).

9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3
8/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +2
8/22/24; 3:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains long
8/20/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -1
8/19/24; 10:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is -2
8/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -4
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo spitting-out 7 numbers on Friday including the 2 pre-scheduled numbers. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. VIX falls below the 14.85 bull/bear line in the sand to 14.80 so the bulls are throwing confetti singing Oh Happy Day.

VIX is the current rudder for the stock market ship. Bulls win below VIX 14.85. Bears win with VIX above 14.85. Bears would also need weaker chips and retail stocks to regain control. Retail earnings and data are on tap this week.

The longer that VIX remains below 14.85, the more likely that the SPX will travel back to the record highs. Bulls need stronger copper and commodities if they want to create a sustainable rally.

If VIX moves back above 14.85, the stock market relief rally is over. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST Monday morning.

8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5
8/16/24; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is -7
8/16/24; 3:35 PM EST = +17; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 2:41 PM EST = +31; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 1:56 PM EST = +17; signal line is -9
8/16/24; 11:45 AM EST = +31; signal line is -11
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/15/24; 10:37 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13; go long 5520; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday before munch time at SPX 5520. The relief rally off the bottom turns out to be a face-ripper. Generally, the US stock market collapsed -10% off the all-time record highs last month only to recover +8% in a heartbeat. The robots are triggering off each data point. The bulls are in control with the algo number 30 points above the signal line.

Financials led the way higher as you saw with XLF. Yesterday, retail sales hit the ball out of the park and the WMT earnings release promises a big Q4 (even though the numbers are based on prices rising in an inflationary environment while the actual 'unit' sales decrease; in addition, the top 20% of Americans on the wealth and career scale account for nearly one-half (50%) of the retail sales; isn't crony capitalism sickening?). The chips join the party sending US stocks to the moon. XLF, RTH and SOX are the heroes for the bulls.

The quant targets volatility as the next hurdle. Write VIX 14.83 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. Stocks will lock-in a bigtime up move, probably towards the record highs, if the VIX drops below 14.83. Right now, real-time, the VIX is trading at 15.44 so bulls need another 61 pennies of downside. If the bulls are unable to push the VIX below 14.83 (yesterday they tried but failed; another test is likely on tap today), the bulls got buptkis, and stocks will reverse and become soggy again.

The bears need to reverse the bullish mojo by sending SOX below 5095, RTH below 203.21 and/or XLF below 42.15. The banks have exploded higher so it may take a few days for XLF to turn negative. Bears need either SOX or RTH to turn bearish to stop the upside rally in the stock market.

Thus, stocks will continue higher with bulls throwing confetti if the VIX drops below 14.83. Conversely, the stock market rally will end if SOX falls below 5095 and/or RTH below 203.21. If both turn negative, Keybot the Quant will likely be in position to flip back to the short side.

On the last trade, that ran for a month, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3%. It is a shame that the relief rally is a vertical rocket ride since that takes away much of the downside gains. Nonetheless, for the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +16%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +6%, and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11%. The actual trading is finally gaining on the benchmark now only underperforming by 5 percentage points. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Watch the VIX 14.83 bull/bear line in the sand; it is all that matters right now in real-time. VIX is at 15.43 having breakfast in the bear camp. Keybot the Quant prints a couple of pre-scheduled numbers over the next couple hours.

8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
8/15/24; 10:37 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13; go long 5520; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.8%)
8/15/24; 9:42 AM EST = +17; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
8/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
8/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:16 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:08 PM EST = -31; signal line is -13
8/8/24; 12:59 PM EST = -15; signal line is -12
8/8/24; 12:43 PM EST = -31; signal line is -11
8/8/24; 9:56 AM EST = -15; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 12:52 PM EST = -31; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
8/6/24; 3:04 PM EST = -31; signal line is -5
8/6/24; 2:52 PM EST = -15; signal line is -4
8/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -3
8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -1
8/2/24; 3:32 PM EST = -15; signal line is +0
8/2/24; 1:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is +1
8/2/24; 11:41 AM EST = -15; signal line is +4
8/2/24; 11:14 AM EST = -31; signal line is +5
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +7
8/1/24; 3:31 PM EST = -15; signal line is +8
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +1; signal line is +10
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +10
7/29/24; 11:45 AM EST = +1; signal line is +11
7/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is +12
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +13
7/26/24; 10:41 AM EST = +1; signal line is +14
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +15
7/24/24; 9:58 AM EST = -15; signal line is +18
7/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is +20
7/22/24; 11:53 AM EST = +17; signal line is +22
7/22/24; 11:34 AM EST = +1; signal line is +23
7/22/24; 9:42 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27
7/19/24; 10:24 AM EST = +1; signal line is +29
7/18/24; 3:39 PM EST = +17; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +33
7/18/24; 1:52 PM EST = +31; signal line is +34
7/18/24; 12:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +35
7/18/24; 11:15 AM EST = +1; signal line is +36
7/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +37
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 12:38 PM EST = +31; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:13 PM EST = +17; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:02 PM EST = +31; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 10:11 AM EST = +17; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 9:53 AM EST = +31; signal line is +41
7/17/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41; go short 5615; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +7.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only one measly point below the signal line. Flip a coin. The bulls pumped banks last week which allowed the stock market to catch its breath and stabilize. The battle picks up in the same place tomorrow with banks, retail stocks and commodities the three main stock market drivers currently according to the quant.

XLF 41.99, RTH 203.50, and GTX 3634 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand directly impacting stock market direction. XLF is creating bullish joy in stocks while RTH and GTX create negativity.

Bears need to pull XLF back below 41.99 pronto, otherwise, the stock market is going to keep moving higher. Bulls need RTH above 203.50 that will create bigtime upside joy in the stock market. Watch Scamazon and there are retail earnings out this week that will tell the tale such as HD. Bulls need GTX above 3634 so watch the commodities. If either RTH or GTX turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

Bears need the banks, insurance companies, and credit card companies to drop to maintain control of the stock market. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and commodities to run the stock market higher and higher.

Watch XLF like a hawk. If XLF remains above 41.99, the bulls will be slapping the bears in the face all day long. If XLF falls below 41.99, trending lower, that will be the start of a new move lower for the stock market. If XLF hesitantly falls through 41.99, then recovers back above, then dips below for a little while, then back above, etc..., this behavior will hint that the quant is likely ready to flip long.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers both on Friday morning one before the opening bell and one after. Speaking of bells, William Bell and the Poison in the Well.

8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
8/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:16 PM EST = -15; signal line is -14
8/8/24; 1:08 PM EST = -31; signal line is -13
8/8/24; 12:59 PM EST = -15; signal line is -12
8/8/24; 12:43 PM EST = -31; signal line is -11
8/8/24; 9:56 AM EST = -15; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 12:52 PM EST = -31; signal line is -9
8/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
8/6/24; 3:04 PM EST = -31; signal line is -5
8/6/24; 2:52 PM EST = -15; signal line is -4
8/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -3
8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as stocks take a dip lower last week. The bears remain in control but the algo number is only 14 points below the signal line so the bulls remain in the game.

Financials led the way higher for the stock market to top-out and the quant has them on the radar again tracking XLF 41.96 as the bull/bear line in the sand. Price begins the new week of trading at 42.09 only 13 measly cents in the bull camp creating stock market positivity. Bears need XLF below 41.96 to kick-in another leg lower for stocks. As financials go, so goes the stock market.

Scamazon soiled the sheets after earnings last week dragging down RTH so this bears watching. If bulls can mount a comeback they will need RTH above 204.70 (now at 201.62). A lot of that depends on AMZN so watch that in the pre-market. The bulls need RTH above 204.70 if they want to wrestle back control of the stock market.

It is about the banks to start the week. If XLF remains above 41.96, the stock market will stabilize and if XLF begins tracking higher, so will stocks. If XLF falls below 41.96, the Wall Street carnage will continue. The stock market remains shaky, unstable and moody, like Jack Kerouac.

8/11/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -1
8/2/24; 3:32 PM EST = -15; signal line is +0
8/2/24; 1:55 PM EST = -31; signal line is +1
8/2/24; 11:41 AM EST = -15; signal line is +4
8/2/24; 11:14 AM EST = -31; signal line is +5
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +7
8/1/24; 3:31 PM EST = -15; signal line is +8
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +1; signal line is +10
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +10
7/29/24; 11:45 AM EST = +1; signal line is +11
7/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = -15; signal line is +12
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 12 points below the signal line.  That is not a lot so the caution flag is out. The bulls pumped retail stocks higher on Friday to stop the selling in the stock market and begin fighting back.

RTH 205.14 is the bull/bear land in the sand with price at 205.27 in the bull camp but it is a game of pennies. RTH is above 205.14 so the bulls are back in the game pinning their hopes on dip-buyers. If RTH drops below 205.14, the stock market is toast again and equities will resume the path lower.

Bears also need weaker banks and utilities to create further stock market carnage but both sectors have been joyous over the last month.

The bulls need stronger chips and commodities and lower volatility. All 3 are creating stock market negativity. SOX 5320, GTX 3666 and VIX 13.91 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand. If any 1 of the 3 turn bullish (remember, the VIX moves inversely to stocks), consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and the quant is likely getting ready to flip long. The SPX would need to be above 5488 heading higher.

Bulls need to maintain strength in retail stocks and pump them up higher in the days ahead (watch Scamazon) at the same time pumping chips and commodities higher and volatility lower.

Bears need to push RTH below 205.14 or they will begin to fold like a cheap suit.

8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +13
7/26/24; 10:41 AM EST = +1; signal line is +14
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +15
7/24/24; 9:58 AM EST = -15; signal line is +18
7/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is +20
7/22/24; 11:53 AM EST = +17; signal line is +22
7/22/24; 11:34 AM EST = +1; signal line is +23
7/22/24; 9:42 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 26 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Volatility, copper, commodities and chips are all that matter. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney receiving intravenous fluids.

VIX 13.80 is the bull/bear line in the sand so the bears appear to be comfortable at wreaking havoc beginning the new week at 16.52. Bulls got absolutely nothing unless they can push the VIX back below 13.80.

GTX 3685 (commodities), SOX 5372 (semiconductors) and RTH (retail stocks; Scamazon) 205.02 are key bull/bear lines in the sand that the quant is tracking currently. These Three Stooges will tell the tale in the days ahead. GTX and SOX are in the bear camp while RTH is in the bull camp.

Bears need VIX, GTX and SOX to  remain in the bear camp while dragging RTH below 205.02 to create stock market carnage and blood on the sidewalks of Wall Street.

Bulls need either VIX below 13.80, GTX above 3685, and/or SOX above 5372 to stop the stock market selling. Any 1 of the 3 will be enough to stall the down slide in stocks. If 2 of the 3 flip into the bull camp, the bulls will be in position to win back market leadership. Bulls are toast if volatility, commodities and chips remain bearish and weaken further. Bulls must hold the line with RTH 205.02, otherwise they will be slashed severely by the bear claws.

The chips failed on Friday creating the leg lower in stocks. Thus, watch SOX 5372 like a hawk. You can check semi names in the pre-market to gauge where the index is headed; also check SMH and XSD. The bulls need Jensen (NVDA) to spray paint a Cheerio's box black and wave it in the air telling everyone another new chip is on the way to save the stock market.

RTH only needs to drop about a half percent to create more stock market mayhem. AMZN is soiling the sheets dropping from over 200 to 180 in only 7 days, now at 183, teasing a -10% correction perhaps on its way to a -20% bear market. Amazon's trading in the pre-market will likely dictate where RTH goes after the opening bell.

There is likely an exciting week ahead and it will be interesting too see what the 1's and 0's do. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Watch the chips and retail stocks.

A bear wants retail stocks and Scamazon to collapse to guarantee more stock market carnage. A bull wants the semiconductors to recover immediately and start rallying again to save the day.

8/4/24; 7:00 PM EST =
8/2/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/26/24; 10:00 AM EST =
7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +27
7/19/24; 10:24 AM EST = +1; signal line is +29
7/18/24; 3:39 PM EST = +17; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
7/18/24; 2:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +33
7/18/24; 1:52 PM EST = +31; signal line is +34
7/18/24; 12:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +35
7/18/24; 11:15 AM EST = +1; signal line is +36
7/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +37
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 5615 after yesterday's opening bell as volatility jumps higher. The failure of copper and commodities, and spike in volatility, creates the drop in the stock market. However, by the end of the session, the commodities recover. Chips also create negativity but they remain in the bull camp by a hair. The algo goes wild yesterday printing a dozen numbers including one pre-scheduled number.

Volatility, copper, commodities and semiconductors are running the stock market show.

VIX 13.73 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price at the 14.41 palindrome right now in real-time so this is a check in the bear column.

CPER 27.95 is the line in the sand and price is at 27.45 in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. Copper futures need to gain +1.8% to get the bulls back on track but copper is trading flat overnight. Check that; copper now slipping -0.5%. Dr Copper is puking in the bathroom.

GTX 3686.25 is the line in the sand and price is at 3689.59 a game of pennies. Commodities are a hair positive in the bull camp but flip a coin with this metric.

SOX 5385 is the line in the sand and price is at 5409 in the bull camp. If SOX loses 5385, it is lights-out for the stock market.

The bears need copper and volatility to remain in their camp while pulling GTX and SOX lower to create more negativity. The bulls need GTX and SOX to remain in their camp while pushing the VIX lower and copper higher. Flip a coin since 3 of the 4 parameters can change and flip-flop back and forth today.

On the last trade, that ran for about 6 weeks, a big bull run, the quant program and actual trading each gain +5%. For the year, the SPX is up a huge +18% with the bulls cheering that the party will continue all year long. The quant program is up +4% so far this year and the actual trading gains about +8% in 2024 thus far. The benchmark S&P 500 is outperforming the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant by 10 percentage points with half the year in the bag. Keybot exited SPY and entered SDS rotating back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired.

VIX 13.73, GTX 3686 and SOX 5385 will tell the market story today.

7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/24; 2:26 PM EST = +31; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 2:11 PM EST = +17; signal line is +38
7/17/24; 12:38 PM EST = +31; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:13 PM EST = +17; signal line is +39
7/17/24; 12:02 PM EST = +31; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 10:11 AM EST = +17; signal line is +40
7/17/24; 9:53 AM EST = +31; signal line is +41
7/17/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +41; go short 5615; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +7.5%)
7/17/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 6:54 AM EST = +17; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 4:39 AM EST = +31; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/17/24; 4:01 AM EST = +17; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
7/16/24; 9:36 PM EST = +31; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/15/24; 2:27 PM EST = +61; signal line is +46
7/15/24; 1:38 PM EST = +45; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +45
7/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +44
7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:20 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:11 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/2/24; 9:59 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/26/24; 3:47 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 2:54 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/26/24; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
6/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +40
6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:39 AM EST = +62; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/18/24; 3:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/18/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:39 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
6/12/24; 2:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
6/12/24; 2:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +34
6/11/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
6/10/24; 3:04 PM EST = +62; signal line is +30
6/10/24; 2:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +28
6/10/24; 1:50 PM EST = +62; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 1:08 PM EST = +46; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 12:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 11:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 10:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 10:10 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 9:38 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:14 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 1:31 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 12:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull market party lives on, however, the robot is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number drops to +31 out of the gate this morning now 15 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Copper and commodities fail this morning so the expectation was for the stock market to deteriorate. Instead, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 5667.20 and new all-time high at 5669.67. Go figure. Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney but nothing will stop stocks going to the moon. The bank earnings are joyous catapulting XLF skyward creating stock market bullishness.

Here is what matters; CPER 27.99, GTX 3686, VIX 13.72 and SPX 5639.

CPER (copper) and GTX (commodities index) are in the bear camp and should be creating a pall on the stock market. VIX is below 13.72 creating the bullish lift in stocks.

Whittle the action down to CPER 27.99, SPX 5639 and VIX 13.72.

Keybot the Quant will likely flip short tomorrow morning if the SPX fails below 5639 trending lower. This represents a 28-point drop in the S&P futures overnight.

If CPER moves above 27.99, all bets are off and the bulls will resume the upside in stocks. This represents a +0.9% rally in copper futures overnight.

If VIX pops above 13.72, the bears are growling bigtime and a drop through SPX 5639 would be guaranteed. Is all that clear as mud?

Bears win big with SPX below 5639. If copper futures rally more than +0.9% overnight, the bulls are back in biz and will be kicking sand in the bears face. If VIX spikes above 13.72, the stock market will begin falling in earnest. Lots of fun on tap for tomorrow; a decision is needed. That is a look at Both Sides Now. What side are you on? 

7/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/24; 9:00 AM EST =
7/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +31; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/15/24; 2:27 PM EST = +61; signal line is +46
7/15/24; 1:38 PM EST = +45; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
7/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +45
7/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +44
7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +43
7/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:20 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 10:11 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/2/24; 9:59 AM EST = +45; signal line is +41
7/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +40
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. The bulls are in charge but only by a measly 5-point advantage that can easily flip back to the bear side at anytime.

Banks and copper continue running the show. Copper is bearish creating negativity in the stock market but a +2% rise in copper futures will signal that there is more upside ahead for stocks. Any negativity in copper futures will add nails to the bull coffin.

XLF 41.02 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the banksters and is uber important. XLF begins the week at 41.11. You can watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning to see what the story is but a failure through 41.02 spells big trouble for stocks.

If XLF loses 41.02, and the SPX drops below 5451 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If XLF remains above 41.02, the stock market will remain elevated, floating along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF 41.02 fails, watch commodities, retail stocks and volatility. Bears need GTX below 3670, RTH below 203.60 and/or VIX above 13.86, respectively. All three are bullish now but if stocks turn sour, you can use these three parameters to see how deep the selling may be. If XLF fails, and GTX, RTH and VIX fail, stocks will be dropping bigtime and a -10% correction would be reasonable for starters with more to follow.

For Monday morning, focus on XLF 41.02 and the copper futures to gauge how the day will go. The week ahead is goofy with the July 4th holiday on Thursday and markets closed. The Jobs Report is on tap for Friday morning.

7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the roller coaster ride continues. Just call me The Roller. The bulls are in charge buy only by a measly 3 points. XLF 41.02 is the bull/bear line in the sand identified by the robot and price is ...... wait for it ....... no, you really should wait for it......... wait a bit longer ........ 41.02. As financials go, so goes the stock market and banks are trading soggy after the stress test results so it appears that XLF may fail at the opening bell tomorrow morning.

If XLF fails below 41.02 and the SPX drops below 5452, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. This represents about a 26 point drop in S&P futures so if you see this in the morning, and the banks are sh*tting the bed, you know the day will be ugly for stocks.

Weaker copper is providing bear energy. CPER must remain below 27.79 to keep the stock market negativity going.

Commodities and volatility are two other parameters the quant is now tracking. Both are creating bullishness in the stock market currently but if GTX loses 3670 or VIX pops above 13.89, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market. If banks fail, then GTX and VIX fail, you will see huge numbers to the downside with stocks.

The bulls simply have to keep XLF above 41.02 in the morning and they will continue to control the show. If the banks fail out of the gate tomorrow, you can picture the stock market stumbling backwards and beginning to fall down the cellar steps.

XLF 41.02 and SPX 5452 tell you everything you need to know about the US stock market. Easy-peasy.

The bulls and bears will face each other in battle tomorrow; just like the Civil War days when the blue battled the gray. A lonely harmonica playing Shenandoah echoes across the valley as the bears plot their attack strategy against the banksters and the bulls try to figure a way to keep the XLF elevated.

6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/26/24; 3:47 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 2:54 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/26/24; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
6/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +40
6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:39 AM EST = +62; signal line is +39
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the big upside rally continues. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 8 points above the signal line which is nothing to write home about. Note how the signal line is dead flat at +38 and the bulls and bears battle it out 8 points above and 8 points below. One side or the other will win going forward.

Banks, copper and volatility are all that matter. The bulls pumped the banks yesterday to go into the Juneteenth holiday on a happy note.

Bulls need higher copper; it is the missing piece to their puzzle. Bulls need CPER above 27.96 to declare that stocks will keep growing to the sky forever.

Bears need lower financials if they want to growl. Bears need XLF below 41.16 to damage the stock market. If banks fail, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If XLF loses 41.16 tomorrow, and the SPX falls below 5472 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

If the bears begin growling due to XLF failing below 41.16, watch volatility. If the VIX moves above 13.86 the bears are in business and the downside will have legs. The bulls have only one task to keep sending stocks higher and that is to push copper higher.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning. Enjoy the holiday and stock market with a picnic at Itchykoo Park. It's all too beautiful.

6/23/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/18/24; 3:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/18/24; 3:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/18/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. Apple, AI hype, inflation data and the Fed all hit home runs this week so traders trip over each other to buy stocks at the ask with both fists. It is interesting that the banks and copper failed after Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High creating the upside orgy.

The banks and copper are running the show right now (if the Fed is waiting too long to cut and are making an error you will see it occur with the banks in trouble going forward).

The quant is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not latch to permit the move yet. The bulls keep pulling the rug out from the bears like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. Will tomorrow be different?

XLF 41.24 and CPER 27.99 are key bull/bear lines in the sand. Despite the stock market floating higher, banks and copper want to pull it lower and both are creating negativity under the surface. Keybot the Quant will likely flip short tomorrow if the SPX drops below 5403 and remains below. So take a Sharpie and write that number on your forehead. The SPX begins at 5434 so bears need a 31-point drop.

Bulls can only take stocks higher if they push XLF above 41.24 and/or CPER above 28. Either one will do and create a leg higher for US stocks into the weekend. If stocks are rallying but banks and copper do not turn bullish, the bulls got nothing and stocks should reverse and head lower giving-up any rally.

Thus, bears need SPX 5403 to sing a happy dance and flip the quant short while bulls need stronger banks and copper to continue the upside party. Shiny Happy People.

Happy Flag Day tomorrow. Happy Birthday to the US Army. And the Caissons Keep Rollin' Along. 

6/16/24; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/24; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/24; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/13/24; 9:39 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
6/12/24; 2:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
6/12/24; 2:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
6/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +34
6/11/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
6/10/24; 3:04 PM EST = +62; signal line is +30
6/10/24; 2:28 PM EST = +46; signal line is +28
6/10/24; 1:50 PM EST = +62; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 1:08 PM EST = +46; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 12:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26
6/10/24; 11:46 AM EST = +46; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 11:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 10:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/10/24; 10:10 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
6/10/24; 9:38 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
6/9/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
6/7/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:28 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
6/6/24; 2:14 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 1:31 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
6/6/24; 12:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24
6/5/24; 2:15 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24; go long 5339; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +11.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.5%)