STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short ahead of the all-important Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM so the action can be updated at that time. Today is month-end. The algo was very active today printing a total of six numbers. RTH 41.16 will be important again tomorrow; it is now creating market bearishness at 41.01.

For the SPX starting at 1310, the bulls need to touch 1320 to accelerate the upside and start the weekend party early.  The bears need to push under 1299 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1300-1319 is sideways action.  The Jobs Report will impact the futures so we can check before the open to see how the landscape looks. For Keybot to go long, the RTH will have to first regain the 41.16 level for starters. Tomorrow morning will provide high drama.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -30 signal line -19

5/31/12; 3:49 PM EST = -30 signal line -18

5/31/12; 3:11 PM EST = -14 signal line -17 but algorithm says stay short

5/31/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -17

5/31/12; 12:26 PM EST = -14 signal line -15 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The RTH tumbled under 41.16 at the open and continued well under 41 before recovering as happy Euro news hit the wires. The algo number is now above the signal line so the quant is chomping at the bit to go long but internal programming rules are holding it back, keeping it on the bear side.  One of the key items that would have to line up is the SPX will need to take out yesterday's highs at 1331.25. The SPX is currently printing 1312 well below so the quant has no intentions of flipping long, for now.

This is high drama and shows that the bulls and bears are fighting intensely ahead of the Jobs Report in the morning when the die will be cast.  Watch RTH 41.16. This retail sector carries serious clout right now more than any other sector.  The RTH is a hair above as this message is typed. If the RTH falls below 41.16 you will see the markets deteriorate. The markets will stay buoyant if the RTH stays above 41.16.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/12; 12:26 PM EST = -14 signal line -15 but algorithm says stay short

5/31/12; 9:30 AM EST = -30 signal line -14

5/30/12; 3:25 PM EST = -14 signal line -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the Thursday trading session. Today is the EOM with a brutal May drawing to a close. Yesterday's trading drama centered around the retail sector where RTH would not commit to neither bull nor bear oscillating to and fro all day long finishing one single point on the bull side.  Watch RTH 41.16 very closely at the opening bell (now at 41.17). Above and the day belongs to the bulls, below and the day belongs to the bears. As RTH goes, so goes the markets today.

Note that Keybot is on the ragged edge of moving back to the long side.  The algo number is smack dab on top of the signal line after printing six numbers yesterday. If the algo number moves higher, and other internal programming rules for the quant are satisfied, Keybot will flip long. The next couple days are extremely important for the markets. For now, Keybot remains inthe bear camp.

For the SPX starting at 1313, the bears only need to see two points lower, to push the SPX under 1311, and the markets will accelerate lower.  The bulls need to recover yesterday's losses to reignite upside momo, a formidable task.  Instead, bulls will focus on keeping the RTH elevated above 41.16 which will keep the broad indexes elevated.  A move thru SPX 1312-1330 is sideways action today.  A pre-scheduled number prints after the close this evening that will button up the month of May then another pre-scheduled number prints Friday morning before the open. Extreme caution is warranted as the bulls and bears fight it out for market control.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/12; 3:25 PM EST = -14 signal line -14

5/30/12; 3:15 PM EST = -30 signal line -14

5/30/12; 12:47 PM EST = -14 signal line -13

5/30/12; 12:04 PM EST = -30 signal line -13

5/30/12; 11:35 AM EST = -14 signal line -12

5/30/12; 10:33 AM EST = -30 signal line -12

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Wednesday session.  The algo idled along yesterday without printing any numbers after the pre-scheduled number printed. RTH moved above 41.15 which caused the bullish thrust yesterday, closing at 41.59, but with futures poised to give back yesterday's gains, watch the RTH closely again today. If RTH drops under 41.15 the markets will take a leg lower. If this fails, watch the SPX 1295 level since this represents the cliff edge for markets. If happy news comes out of Europe, which is hard to imagine, but if it does, and RTH stays above 41.15, watch NYA 7646 (now at 7615) since that will signal that the bulls are in full control and a substantial market rally is occurring. Considering the souring market mood today, this outcome does not appear to be on tap. If the NYA moves above 7646, Keybot will likely move to the long side. Otherwise, Keybot appears to be content with staying short, remaining on the bearish side for about three and one-half weeks.

For the SPX, starting at 1332, the bulls need to touch the 1335 handle and the markets will accelerate skyward. The bears need to push under 1319 and the downside will accelerate. A move thru 1320-1334 is sideways action today. Note that with a ten point drop projected by futures currently, this would still leave the bears three points shy of the 1319.  Volatility remains high, markets remain unstable.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the holiday-shortened week is underway. The pre-scheduled number results in no change to the algo number but the signal line ticked one point lower.  The RTH is remaining up above 41.15 so this creates the market bullishness today. The NYA, however, is at 7600 remaining short of the 7646 level that will verify a strong bullish rally in progress and sustainable. The 7646 level replaces the 7637 level mentioned in prior posts since this is the 40-week MA and is constantly changing in real-time.

The SPX punched thru 1324 so an upside acceleration was expected and the HOD print is 1331, a critical resistance level now being tested. Keep watching NYA 7646 since this will likely trigger Keybot to go long. Otherwise, Keybot remains short. The markets remain highly unstable.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -10

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -9

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the holiday-shortened trading week. The retail sector, RTH, and the NYA index are the two key elements that will dictate broad market direction.  The quant is tracking 41.15 for RTH and 7637 for NYA.  RTH closed three pennies above this important level at 41.18 which is bullish for markets. The NYA closed at 7534 about 100 points under the important level which is bearish for markets. If the RTH falls under 41.15 the bears will be pushing markets lower once again. If this occurs, keep watching the line in the sand where markets will fall off a cliff at SPX 1294.  The bulls, however, will try to keep the RTH above 41.15 which will create broad market buoyancy. If they succeed at this task, the bulls will then focus on the NYA regaining the 7637 level.  If the NYA moves above 7637, it is likely that Keybot will flip to the long side ending the three-week run for the bears.

For the SPX for Tuesday, the first day of trading for the week, starting at 1318, the bears have an easier task ahead only needing about four points lower, to move under the 1314 level, and a strong down leg will occur for the broad indexes. The bulls need to move above 1324, about six points higher to accelerate an up move for the broad indexes. A move thru 1315-1323 is sideways action. If the markets stage a post-holiday rally, watch 1324 closely, if the bulls cannot move above, they got nothing. If the bulls move above 1324, they got game and they can easily extend the rally higher perhaps finally performing a back kiss of the 1340 level that represents the neck line rupture of the H&S pattern.

The short four-day week is packed full of economic data with the Jobs Report on Friday.  Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week starting at 10 AM Tuesday so the market action can be updated at that time. Markets remain unstable and erratic as volatility works higher. Caution is warranted. RTH 41.15 and NYA 7637 will tell you the story.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -9

5/25/12; 3:42 PM EST = -14 signal line -8

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the holiday weekend. The algo printed two more numbers in the afternoon and now the algo number is only six points away from the signal line. This action places Keybot closer to moving to the long side. The bulls are trying to lift the markets by using the retail sector. The RTH closed above the 41.15 level of interest identified by Keybot by only three pennies but it is above nonetheless favoring the bulls. The bulls could not punch the NYA thru the 40-week MA, however. These two items will be key when the Tuesday opening bell rings as well as the SPX 12-month MA and also volatility. The sectors and levels of interest for next week can be set up tomorrow after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 3:42 PM EST = -14 signal line -8

5/25/12; 3:18 PM EST = -30 signal line -7

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -6

5/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -5

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo printed a number at the opening bell and then the pre-scheduled number occurred minutes ago.  The algo number is now only eight points away from the signal line so the bulls are pushing to recover market control.  RTH moved above 41.15 at the open so watch this closely. RTH above 41.15 will create market buoyancy all day long. If it drops back under, markets will weaken. The VIX remains elevated.  The NYA is negative on the day so it is not making a run higher to attack the 40-week MA at 7637.  The SPX touched the 1324 level that the bulls need for a strong upwards acceleration, but after a few seconds price fell back down.

Thus, RTH 41.15, NYA 7637 and SPX 1324 and 1310.50 will dictate broad market direction today. If the NYA moves above 7637, Keybot will likely flip to the long side so keep this in mind today. If RTH loses 41.15, markets will weaken today.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -6

5/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -5

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and another day passes with the algo simply idling along without printing any numbers. Tomorrow a pre-scheduled number occurs at 10 AM so that will provide a print this week.  The SPX moved sideways today. The 1321 level was violated but the bulls could not hold on to provide any upside momo.  The retail sector came to life today despite weak TIF earnings.  Watch RTH 41.15.  The sneaky RTH moved higher today into the close to print 41.07 only eight pennies from this bullish goal. If RTH overtakes 41.15, this will provide another upward leg for the markets.

Watch VIX 18.25, now at 21.54.  A move under 18.25 would be a feather in the bull's cap and provide further upside market strength. Also watch the NYA 40-week MA at 7637, now at 7552, only 85 points away.  Remember a few days back when the NYA fell under the 40-week MA which indicates secular bear markets ahead? This current price move is a back kiss of this critical moving average. The bull's will strongly regain market control if the NYA moves back above 7637.

For the SPX on Friday starting at 1321, the bulls need to touch 1324, only three points higher, and the markets will accelerate upwards into the holiday weekend.  The bears need to push lower under 1310.50 and the markets will accelerate to the downside and ruin the long trader's plan for a happy holiday barbeque.  A move thru 1311-1323 is sideways action. To determine broad market direction, watch RTH 41.15, NYA 7637, SPX 1324 and 1310.50, these four characters will tell you the story. The market action can be updated after the pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot remains short. The algo is very calm this week and has yet to print one number since Sunday. A pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning.  The quant remains in the bear camp. The critical number to watch is the SPX 12-month MA at 1293.70 which will turn markets considerably more negative. Volatility is high creating the wild market moves in recent days. This behavior will continue. For the SPX today starting at 1319, the bulls need to touch 1321 to accelerate the upside party. The bears need to push under 1297 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1298-1319 is sideways action.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short, idling along all week long thus far without printing any numbers. The utilities remain elevated hinting that the broad markets will need to explore higher levels. For the SPX in Wednesday's trade, beginning at 1317, the bulls need to push above 1328 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1310 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1311-1327 is sideways action. The 1292-1295 area remains the key bull-bear line in the sand. Keybot is on the short side for over two weeks. Markets remain unstable requiring caution.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo idled along all day long without printing any numbers. The bears are favored. For the SPX tomorrow starting at 1316, the bulls need to only push a few pennies higher to touch 1316.40 and the upside party will continue with bulls well on the way to a sturdy recovery rally.  So look for the slightest hint of green in the overnight futures and the bulls are on easy street for Tuesday trading.  The bears need to push under 1296 to accelerate the downside. The critical 12-month MA is 1293.46, moving up slightly from 1292 yesterday.  This remains the bull-bear line in the sand. Bad things will happen to markets if the 12-month MA fails. The importance of the 1292-1296 area cannot be understated. A move thru 1297-1316 is sideways action.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

5/16/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the new trading week. The Sunday number prints and results in no change to the algo number but the signal line drops two ticks. The key item to watch for Monday is SPX 1292 as discussed in the previous message.  The 12-month MA is 1292 and should that fail, many robots will kick in and sell the markets aggressively. The exact number is 1291.73 but the moving averages are constantly changing slightly so using 1292 as a rough gauge is fine. If 1292 fails, the caution flag will be removed and the bears will be at full cruise speed.

The oversold nature of the markets right now, however, forecasts the need for a relief rally since late last week. If SPX 1292 holds and the bears cannot push lower, the relief rally should be at hand. There has been serious technical damage done to the markets in May so weak markets are expected moving forward despite any recovery bounce this week. The utilities sector typically leads, or is at least coincidental, when the broad markets perform a substantial bear market move lower. During May, the utes have remained elevated which hints that a market recovery bounce is needed so the sectors can reset. At that point, the utilities, UTIL, will have to be watched to see if they then lead lower which would lock in a longer term bear market.  For this week, watch UTIL 450.45, now at 464.16 so comfortably above. If 450.45 fails this week, bulls have zero hope, the markets will move substantially lower if not assume a crash profile. The utes continue to be a lonely feather in the bull's cap, for now.

For the SPX on Monday starting at 1295, as discussed above, the bears need only three points lower to push under 1292 and a bearish acceleration will take place. A rupture of 1292 would need to hold for about seven to ten minutes to lock it in.  The bulls need to push higher to touch the 1313 handle which is the 100-day MA to accelerate the upside and provide legs to a recovery bounce. A move thru 1293-1311 is sideways action. The importance of SPX 1292 cannot be underestimated. If 1292 fails, the broad indexes will enter a potential crash scenario. If the bulls need one time to bounce markets, it has to be now. Markets remains highly unstable and erratic. Caution is warranted.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3

5/16/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the weekend. High drama as the SPX dropped lower to test the 1294 level mentioned in yesterday's missive. The SPX 12-month MA is a key line in the sand that signals secular bull markets versus secular bear markets. Many algorithm's, Keybot included, have this level programmed into the quant's.  The SPX 12-month MA is 1291.73 (this number continually changes as the moving average is continually recalculated--before yesterday it was at the 1294 level). Thus, the 1292 is a critically important level and if it fails, a whole new round of secular bearishness begins and the markets can be expected to be weak for weeks and months ahead.

So get some rest this weekend since Monday we find out if failure occurs at 1292, or not. The week ahead will be set up with key sectors and levels to watch once the Sunday number prints tomorrow. The bears are cruising.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -1

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = -16 signal line +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo idled along yesterday without printing any numbers. The bulls can hang their tiny hats on two items that continue to hold up; the utilities sector remains elevated and the SPX 1294 danger level is not yet violated. The futures indicate a bounce is on tap today. The markets do need a relief rally since May has been nothing but downhill sledding thus far.

For the SPX today starting at 1305, closing at the lows yesterday, the bears only need a smidge of red in the futures and markets will tumble lower with the SPX dropping thru 1300, but, by the looks of the bullish futures, this is not on tap.  The market bulls should receive a dead cat bounce today but would need to recover the critical 1326 resistance level to reignite bullish fun, a formidable task today.  A move thru 1306-1325 is sideways action. Despite any rally today, the bears will likely maintain control moving forward. The caution flag remains out, however.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -1

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = -16 signal line +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The algo printed a number yesterday afternoon further bolstering the bear case.  The retail sector, RTH, appears to have given up the ghost but RTH 41.38 still requires monitoring. The NYA 7628 level is very important and gave way yesterday taking the quant lower and also signaling that the broad indexes have now fallen into a secular bear pattern. Watch the 7628 level closely in the following days. The SPX 1294 level is very important moving forward and a loss of this level, only about 30 handles lower, will usher in significant, extended and sustainable bearishness moving forward. If SPX 1294 is attained, it would be important to see if Chairman Bernanke announces QE3 to save the day.

Thus, focus on NYA 7628 for a direct gauge on market direction today, bears are currently winning. If markets move up, watch to see if the bulls can wrestle back control with RTH 41.38. If markets move lower watch to see if the bears can smack the markets harder with SPX 1294 or if the utilities, UTIL, drops under 451 (now at 467).

For the SPX today starting at 1325, bulls need to touch 1342 to accelerate the upside and bears need to push under 1325 to accelerate the downside.  Therefore, any hint of red in the futures will embolden the market bears at the opening bell. At this writing, the futures are flat falling about four S&P points over the last hour. The Nasdaq is leading the market lower which is an advantage for bears. The selling has been extensive lately so a relief rally should be at the doorstep.  The bears are in control but the caution flag remains out due to the unstable and erratic nature of the broad markets currently.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -1

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = -16 signal line +1

5/15/12; 2:29 PM EST = -16 signal line +3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the day. The pre-scheduled number results in no change to the algo number but the signal line moves lower by two ticks. TGT reported strong earnings and guidance which will help counteract the JCP bearish news. Watch RTH 41.38 and NYA 7628. S&P futures were down about seven four hours ago, now up eight, a 15 point move higher this morning. The bulls need 14 higher, however, to touch 1345, to accelerate the upside. Tech is not leading the broad market higher this morning so the upside should be limited.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST = -16 signal line +1

5/15/12; 2:29 PM EST = -16 signal line +3

5/15/12; 11:39 AM EST = +0 signal line +5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Tuesday was another active day for Keybot with four numbers printing. In the afternoon the algo number went negative once again.  The retail sector is key the last few days since it is one of the legs of the wobbly stool supporting the markets. Major retailers, such as JCP last evening, are running out of gas so RTH should stay under 41.38 helping the market bears, but, expect anything in these markets.

A watershed event occurs yesterday with the NYA piercing the 40-week MA at 7628. This signals that the broad markets are falling into a secular bear market pattern. Price did not hold under 7628 and printed 7635.81 at the close. Watch this closely today. If NYA drops under 7628, the market bearishness will increase substantially moving forward.

For the SPX starting at 1331, the market bulls need to push higher and touch 1345 to accelerate the markets higher, a formidable task. Since the broad indexes closed near the lows, the bears only need a couple points lower, to push under 1328.50, and the markets will accelerate lower.  A move thru 1330-1344 is sideways action. Futures are paring losses but the S&P's are showing that they want to test the 1328.50 when the bell rings. RTH 41.38, UTIL 451.36, NYA 7628 and SPX 1295 are key levels to monitor. Markets remain highly unstable and erratic. Caution is warranted. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in about five hours so the pre-market action can be updated at that time.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/15/12; 2:29 PM EST = -16 signal line +3

5/15/12; 11:39 AM EST = +0 signal line +5

5/15/12; 11:05 AM EST = -16 signal line +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the retail sector battles the bull-bear danger line at RTH 41.38. The SPX:VIX ratio remains under 68 which is market bearish. The algo number is now within five points of the signal line so Keybot is warming up to the potential long side. Trading today and tomorrow is important. Watch RTH 41.38. Caution is warranted.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/15/12; 11:39 AM EST = +0 signal line +5

5/15/12; 11:05 AM EST = -16 signal line +7

5/15/12; 10:35 AM EST = +0 signal line +9

5/14/12; 2:19 PM EST = -16; signal line +11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The algo was active in Monday's trade printing five numbers. The retail sector is a key focus for Keybot. Continue watching RTH 41.38 since it directly affects broad market direction.  The SPX:VIX 68 level remains important as well. If the markets rally today, as the futures currently indicate, and RTH moves above 41.38 and SPX:VIX above 68, the bulls have a full fledged strong rally ongoing.  If the markets rally, but the RTH and SPX:VIX remain bearish, the bulls got nothing.  Watch NYA 7630 moving forward, the NYA now only 75 points above this danger line.

For the SPX starting at 1338, the market bulls need to touch 1352, if so, the upside will accelerate for markets.  The bears need to push under the strong support at 1337 and the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1338-1350 is sideways action. Markets remain unstable and caution is required as the bull-bear tug-o-war continues.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/14/12; 2:19 PM EST = -16; signal line +11

5/14/12; 1:52 PM EST = +0; signal line +12

5/14/12; 11:41 AM EST = -16; signal line +14

5/14/12; 11:27 AM EST = +0; signal line +15

5/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Keybot is active today. The fight for RTH 41.38 continues today and is the key item to watch to note broad market direction.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/14/12; 11:41 AM EST = -16; signal line +14

5/14/12; 11:27 AM EST = +0; signal line +15

5/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line +15

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. SPX:VIX ratio collapsed under 68 at the open, financials are weak, volatility spikes higher, copper continues the road lower, all are bearish indications.  Further, RTH falls thru 41.35-ish at the open showing the retail sector now joining the bears.  The market bulls have no hope unless they move the RTH back above 41.38.  For the bears, to increase the carnage and lock in extended market weakness moving forward, the NYA needs to drop only about 80 or 90 points, to print under 7630, and the market bears will be growling stronger. NYA is now printing 7719.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/14/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line +15

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the new trading week.  Watch the SPX:VIX ratio 68 level, now only four pennies above favoring bulls by a hair.  If the ratio stays above 68 and moves higher the market bulls will be running. If 68 fails, a huge market down day is on tap with the Dow Industrials likely to fall triple digits.  China lowered the triple R's, this serves as stimulus, so the bulls may be in charge.

Continue watching XLF 15.18, VIX 18.14, both bearish, and RTH 41.35, bullish.  Any change in posture from any of these will thrust the broad market in that direction. The retail sector is pivotal this week with sales data and earnings from HD, WMT and TGT, as well as many others, which will directly impact RTH.

For the SPX for Monday, the bulls need to touch the 1366 handle and the market upside will accelerate. Bears need to push under 1349 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1350-1364 is sideways action.  Markets remain highly unstable.  The tug-o-war by SPX:VIX above and below 68 eight times in last week's trading, verifies the ongoing bull-bear struggle. If the China cut rallies the bull troops, and either XLF or VIX join the bull camp, Keybot would be very close to moving to the long side. Keybot prints only one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/16/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line +16

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the weekend. Friday was a sideways day with none of the four parameters, XLF, VIX, RTH and SPX:VIX ratio, changing sides although at the close the SPX:VIX ratio prints 68.04, only four pennies above the bull-bear danger line where the bears take firm control of the markets moving forward (under 68). The key items of interest that Keybot is preferentially tracking can be highlighted tomorrow once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line +17

5/9/12; 1:02 PM EST = +0; signal line +17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The pre-scheduled number results in no change.  Note that the SPX:VIX ratio lost the 68 level at the open but it was regained quickly, especially with the RTH remaining above 41.35 staying in the bull camp. Watch XLF 15.18, VIX 18.14, RTH 41.35 and SPX:VIX 68 since one of these will flinch and show the broad market direction ahead. RTH 41.35 is key today and right now does not want to join the bears, yet. If XLF and VIX remain bearish and RTH and SPX:VIX remain bullish, markets will travel sideways all day long.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST = +0 signal line +17

5/9/12; 1:02 PM EST = +0 signal line +17

5/9/12; 12:44 PM EST = -16 signal line +18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a sideways day Thursday. RTH 41.35 and SPX:VIX 68 are in the bull camp and XLF 15.18 and VIX 18.14 are in the bear camp.  None of these four characters changed as the day moved along so markets stumbled sideways.  After the close, JPM releases bad news concerning two billion in losses from poor trading practices.  Global markets are lower with the banks around the world receiving a hard slap in the face.  The XLF was already in the bear camp.  Therefore, watch the retail sector and SPX:VIX ratio mentioned above to see if they jump ship and join the bears after the open.

Remember, keep an eye on NYA 7620, now at 7853, since a drop under 7620 signals that markets have fallen into a secular bear pattern.  For the SPX today, starting at 1358, the bulls need to touch 1366 to accelerate the upside.  The bears need to push under 1355 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1356-1364 is sideways action but it appears that the markets may lose the 1355 level at the open due to the weak futures at this writing. The market action will be updated once Keybot print's the pre-scheduled number at 10 AM.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/9/12; 1:02 PM EST = +0 signal line +17

5/9/12; 12:44 PM EST = -16 signal line +18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The drama yesterday occurred in the retail sector. RTH lost the 41.35 level to help the market bears but then recovered as the day moved along. Another stutter step occurred with RTH once again dropping under the critical 41.35 level but recovering again. Then at 3:15 PM EST, RTH came down to test 41.35 once again which resulted in a bounce.  RTH then drifted lower to close only two pennies away at 41.37.  How does Keybot know these numbers to watch ahead of time? Thus, watch RTH 41.35 very closely during the Thursday trade. Staying above RTH 41.35 and market bulls will rejoice. If RTH loses 41.35 the markets will commence another leg lower.

Another key tool is the SPX:VIX ratio 68 level. For the last two days the bulls and bears are fighting over this battle ground. Watch this closely since above 68 and the bulls win but below 68 says the bears will win moving forward.

For the SPX for Thursday, starting at 1355, the bulls need to touch the 1364 handle and the market upside will accelerate.  The bears need to drop under 1343 and markets will accelerate lower. A move thru 1344-1362 is sideways action. Markets remain unstable. Use RTH 41.35 and SPX:VIX 68 to determine broad market direction moving forward.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/9/12; 1:02 PM EST = +0 signal line +17

5/9/12; 12:44 PM EST = -16 signal line +18

5/9/12; 10:47 AM EST = +0 signal line +19

5/9/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16 signal line +19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. RTH lost the 41.35 at the opening bell but has now regained this important level.  The SPX fell thru 1348 to accelerate lower to 1343 but is bouncing strongly with the stronger retail sector. Keep watching RTH 41.35, SPX:VIX 68 and XLF 15.18. The markets are receiving a recovery bounce right now but remain bearish under the surface.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/9/12; 10:47 AM EST = +0 signal line +19

5/9/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16 signal line +19

5/8/12; 1:20 PM EST = +0; signal line +20

5/8/12; 10:00 AM EST = -16; signal line +21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. Financials, volatility and retail sectors will drive the bus again today. Watch XLF 15.18 (now bearish), VIX 18.14 (now bearish) and RTH 41.35 (now bullish. Thus, bulls want to push XLF above 15.18 and VIX below 18.14 and the upside market party will swing back into gear. The bears want to push RTH back under 41.35 and this will initiate another leg lower for the broad indexes. With XLF remaining below 15.18, VIX remaining above 18.14 and RTH remaining above 41.35, status quo, the markets will languish sideways.

On a side note, watch NYA, now printing 7887.26.  If the 7621-ish level fails, call it 200 points lower, the broad markets enter a whole new phase of much stronger bearishness and markets will likely deteriorate at a faster pace.  The utilities remain flatish this week and is one tiny feather in the bull's cap. This buoyancy in utes will encourage the broad indexes to recover. If weakness appears in the utes and they continue lower the markets will be sliding down the rabbit hole.

For the SPX starting at 1364, the bulls need five points, to touch the 1369 handle, if so, the makets will recover and accelerate higher.  The bears must push lower to drop under 1348 to reignite and accelerate strong downward pressure, a formidable task sixteen points lower. The U.S. futures are off about eight as this message is typed so that only moves the bears halfway to where they need to go.  A move thru 1350-1368 is sideways action today. Markets remain unstable; XLF 15.18, VIX 18.14 and RTH 41.35 will dictate broad market direction today.  Also monitor the SPX:VIX ratio, a drop under 68 and the broad indexes will sell off large today. If the bulls prevent the failure at 68, then markets will lean towards a recovery move higher.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/8/12; 1:20 PM EST = +0; signal line +20

5/8/12; 10:00 AM EST = -16; signal line +21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The retail sector has now joined the bear camp with RTH losing the 41.35 level. SPX:VIX is now printing 66.20 failing the 68 level. XLF is now under 15 at 14.97. The bears are growling strongly and the market selling will continue as long as these parameters stay in place.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/8/12; 10:00 AM EST = -16; signal line +21

5/8/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line +22

5/7/12; 1:22 PM EST = +16; signal line +24

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  XLF failure at 15.18 at the open.  JJC tumbles lower, copper receiving a beating.  VIX jumps higher over 19.5.  RTH is 41.52 above the 41.35 so the bulls are hanging on by a thread with the retail sector.  Utility weakness helps bears. Semiconductors continue to collapse. SPX:VIX ratio is 69.52, above 68, so the bulls are hanging on.  The SPX fell thru the 1364 which accelerated the downside, price now printing 1359. Bears are pushing lower to start the day, watch XLF 15.18, RTH 41.35 and SPX:VIX ratio 68.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/8/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line +22

5/7/12; 1:22 PM EST = +16; signal line +24

5/7/12; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line +25 but algorithm says stay short

5/7/12; 12:39 PM EST = +16; signal line +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The algo printed three numbers yesterday. Lots of drama surrounded the financials, and the XLF closed right at Keybot's level of interest at 15.18, actually one penny higher as markets settled after the close. How does Keybot know these numbers ahead of time?  Copper recovered strongly yesterday and it went relatively unnoticed. Thus, the algo is now scanning four sectors with great interest; financials, copper, volatility and retail, XLF, JJC, VIX and RTH, respectively.

Watch XLF 15.18 (now above at 15.19 helping bulls), JJC 48.15 (now below at 48.01 helping bears), VIX 18.14 (now above at 18.94 helping bears-remember, volatility moves inverse to the markets) and RTH 41.35 (now above at 41.72 helping bulls). The juxstaposition of these four characters will determine broad market direction moving forward. Since the futures project a lower open today, XLF will likely fail at the open helping bears. Watch to see if RTH fails 41.35, if so, the markets will take another significant leg lower.  The market bulls need to keep XLF above 15.18 and heading higher while also pushing copper above 48.15 and this will begin a recovery bounce that will have legs.

For the SPX today starting at the important S/R at 1370, the bulls need to see four points to move up and touch the 1374 handle, if so, the upside will accelerate. Bears need to see six points lower to drop under 1364 and the downside will accelerate.  A move thru 1365-1373 is sideways action. The lower futures show that the bears have a shot at the 1364 after the opening bell. Markets remain unstable. The caution flag remains out as this tug-o-war between bulls and bears continues.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/7/12; 1:22 PM EST = +16; signal line +24

5/7/12; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line +25 but algorithm says stay short

5/7/12; 12:39 PM EST = +16; signal line +25

5/6/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  VIX remains above 18.14 favoring bears. RTH remains well above 41.35 favoring bulls. The XLF just moved above 15.18 during the noon hour so this created some short term market buoyancy.  The broad indexes will move up today if the bulls hold the XLF 15.18 level or higher. Bears need to smack the XLF back under 15.18.  XLF is now printing exactly 15.18, whichever way it goes now it will take the broad markets with it.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/7/12; 12:39 PM EST = +16; signal line +25

5/6/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line +25

5/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +0; signal line +26

5/4/12; 9:55 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27; go short 1382; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.9%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +1.6%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +2.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the new trading week.  The France and Greece election results will provide drama in the Sunday overnight futures markets. Keybot appears most interested in the financials, volatility and retail sectors. XLF 15.18 triggered the Friday trouble so the first sign of any recovery for bulls will occur if XLF moves above 15.18. Below, and the bears will be driving markets lower. VIX whipped the markets further south once the 18.14 level was taken out to the upside. Thus, the bulls need the VIX back under 18.14 to move markets higher.  It appears that Keybot will need to see both the XLF and VIX to rejoin the bull camp for the algo to flip back to the long side, if one or both remain bearish, Keybot will likely remain short.

Watch RTH 41.35, now at 41.81. With all things staying equal, Keybot is targeting this sector next. If RTH stays above 41.35, the bulls stay in the game overall and will simply let the market negativity play out and begin a recovery move. If RTH loses 41.35, the broad indexes will take a strong leg lower and the bears will move into a more sustainable downside market move going forward.  The strength in the utilites sector, UTIL, is a key feather in the bulls cap that also keeps them in the game overall. UTIL 448 is a critical level the algorithm is locked onto which will remain in place all week long. UTIL is at 467.88, twenty points above this danger level. For the next two months, the bulls must keep UTIL above the 448-454 zone. If price falls into this zone at anytime, markets are in big trouble, if price collapses thru, you will see the broad indexes tumbling substantially lower.

For the SPX for Monday, starting at 1369, the market bears only need to see one red point in the futures overnight and the broad indexes are set up for another leg down, likely to test 1364 and/or 1361 in quick order. The bulls must retrace Friday's move which is a formidable task. One possible way this bullish outcome could occur is if Sarkozy wins the France election, but he is not favored. We will know this answer in the hours ahead. Thus, the bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding and can do this if they keep the futures green. When the opening bell rings, watch XLF 15.18 which will provide an immediate indication of market direction. Then watch VIX 18.14 and RTH 41.35 as well.

Markets remain highly unstable and erratic. Caution is warranted. Keybot prints only one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

5/13/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/11/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/6/12; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line +25

5/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +0; signal line +26

5/4/12; 9:55 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27; go short 1382; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.9%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +1.6%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +2.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short thru the weekend. Quite a wild week transpired as we watched commodities and copper collapse, semiconductors collapse, and then yesterday with financials collapsing then volatility spiking; the bears are growling strongly. The drop of XLF thru 15.18 was very significant, watch this like a hawk moving forward. Volatility and the retail sector should figure prominently next week but first thing is first, the quant will print the Sunday number tomorrow and at that time the new trading week sectors and levels of interest, as well as SPX levels, can be posted.  The market bears are in control.

Caution is required moving forward. The strength in the utilities sector recently hints that although further downside exploration is likely, the markets will also likely recover and move back upwards to the 1400-ish or more levels again due to the strength in utes. For a sustained downside push in markets to occur, the utes should lead or at least move coincidentally. UTIL was up yesterday. When/if the markets recover in the days/weeks ahead, watch UTIL. If you see continued strength with UTIL then the bulls will start to assemble another market upside party. If UTIL rolls over, that will hint that the market downside move will be sustainable, extended and most likely dramatic.

5/6/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +0; signal line +26

5/4/12; 9:55 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27; go short 1382; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.9%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +1.6%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +2.0%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
5/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:55 AM EST at SPX 1382; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.9%; Keybot algo is up 1.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.0%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
4/25/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 11:29 AM EST at SPX 1387; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.3%; Keybot algo is up 2.0%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.0%.
4/23/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:57 AM EST at SPX 1362; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.3%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.1%.
4/12/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:30 PM EST at SPX 1384; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.0%; Keybot algo is up 5.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.7%.
3/28/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:33 AM EST at SPX 1409, whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot algo is up 3.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.2%.
3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.