Keybot the Quant is short to start the holiday-shortened trading week. The retail sector, RTH, and the NYA index are the two key elements that will dictate broad market direction. The quant is tracking 41.15 for RTH and 7637 for NYA. RTH closed three pennies above this important level at 41.18 which is bullish for markets. The NYA closed at 7534 about 100 points under the important level which is bearish for markets. If the RTH falls under 41.15 the bears will be pushing markets lower once again. If this occurs, keep watching the line in the sand where markets will fall off a cliff at SPX 1294. The bulls, however, will try to keep the RTH above 41.15 which will create broad market buoyancy. If they succeed at this task, the bulls will then focus on the NYA regaining the 7637 level. If the NYA moves above 7637, it is likely that Keybot will flip to the long side ending the three-week run for the bears.
For the SPX for Tuesday, the first day of trading for the week, starting at 1318, the bears have an easier task ahead only needing about four points lower, to move under the 1314 level, and a strong down leg will occur for the broad indexes. The bulls need to move above 1324, about six points higher to accelerate an up move for the broad indexes. A move thru 1315-1323 is sideways action. If the markets stage a post-holiday rally, watch 1324 closely, if the bulls cannot move above, they got nothing. If the bulls move above 1324, they got game and they can easily extend the rally higher perhaps finally performing a back kiss of the 1340 level that represents the neck line rupture of the H&S pattern.
The short four-day week is packed full of economic data with the Jobs Report on Friday. Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week starting at 10 AM Tuesday so the market action can be updated at that time. Markets remain unstable and erratic as volatility works higher. Caution is warranted. RTH 41.15 and NYA 7637 will tell you the story.
6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =
6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =
5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -9
5/25/12; 3:42 PM EST = -14 signal line -8
why does the algorithm publish the result on weekend? Yesterday,5/27/12 the signal line and oscillator results were published?
ReplyDeleteWhat data will it calculate on weekend?
thanks.
Hello Anon, typically you are correct where the inputs are idling and there is usually no change but many times the signal line will change which either allows the algo to flip sides easier, or harder, as time continues along form Sunday forward. Aside from that, the long term data is collected on a weekly, monthly and yearly basis for the robot. Since the algo is somewhat abstract in nature, and can print from zero to a dozen or more numbers on any given day, the daily numbers are not of much use statistically and mathematically, it is important to lock in the weekly data for further analysis, so Sunday serves this purpose. The dollar and commodities markets, as well as futures, also move in off hours so changes can occur in the non-standard daytime trading hours between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM EST. That was a great question.
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