Keybot the Quant remains short heading into the new week of trading. The Sunday print results in no change. Watch UTIL 478.43 this week, now bearish and creating market negativity. Market bears should remain happy as long as UTIL is under 478.43, if it moves above, that will signal the bulls charging higher. Watch RTH 44.40, VIX 16.90 and JJC 46.25. All three are contributing bullishly to markets but on Friday they all were showing exhaustion. Retail Sales numbers hit at 8:30 AM and will immediately impact RTH. If RTH drops under 44.40 the markets will take another leg lower and hopes of a recovery rally will fade quickly. Likewise, if JJC drops under 46.35. China data is important this evening since this will immediately impact copper overnight and move JJC tomorrow. Volatility should be on the increase so pay close attention to the VIX this week. A move above 16.90 not only assures the bear path forward but the higher volatility will create large intraday market spikes, a roller coaster ride, moving forward.
For the SPX on Monday, beginning at 1429, the bears have the easier road, only needing a drop of three points, under 1425.50, to begin a downside acceleration. The bulls need to move above 1438.50 to initiate an upside acceleration. A move thru 1427-1437 is sideways action. Stay alert and cautious since the bulls and bears continue to fight it out. European news will play a large role in trading this week. Keybot prints only one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday.
10/21/12; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/12; 9:00 AM EST =
10/14/12; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56
10/12/12; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +56
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