STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The algo motored along all day without printing any further numbers. Watch XLF 15.65, SOX 372.42 and VIX 15.85. All three are causing bullishness. Markets will remain buoyant and drift higher if they remain bullish. The bears will try to push one or more of the three into the bear camp to reignite market negativity. For the SPX starting at 1416, the bulls need to touch the 1420 handle, if so, an upside acceleration will occur.  The bears need to push under 1409 to create a downside acceleration. A move thru 1410-1419 is sideways action.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/12; 9:30 AM EST = +35; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as copper catapults higher adding lift to the broad markets. Keybot starts the day with printing a number further in bullish territory, now 34 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. Watch XLF 15.65 and VIX 15.85. If price crosses either target level, the markets will weaken. If they both stay bullish, the markets will continue higher (remember, volatility, the VIX, moives inverse to the markets).

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/29/12; 9:30 AM EST = +35; signal line is +1

11/28/12; 3:51 PM EST = +19; signal line is +0; go long 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.7%; Keybot for 2012 = +21.7%)(Actual this trade = -1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +19.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at 3:51 PM at SPX 1409, another late day trend change right before the closing bell.  The semi's, financials and volatility all flipped into the bull camp and the markets never looked back; the SPX tagged 1409 in the closing minutes. That was a wild day of market action. Keybot printed 13 numbers today including the change to the long side. The last trade results in a minor loss. The quant closed out SDS and opened up a trade in SPY. The double ETF's are now abandoned for 35 days due to the whipsaw that occurred (the quant reversed its signal within 48 hours). Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side tomorrow or Friday.

The quant is tracking four sectors of interest; SOX 372.42, XLF 15.66, VIX 15.85 and JJC 44.85. The first three are in the bull camp creating market positivity while copper is in the bear camp.  The bears need to win back SOX, XLF and VIX to weaken the markets while the bulls will focus on winning over JJC to continue the maket upside. For the SPX at 1410, the bulls have the easy road to hoe, only needing to see positive futures overnight which will create an upside acceleration in the SPX at the opening bell. The bears would have to reverse today's up move down to 1385 to accelerate a downward move. This is a formidable task, however, the bulls today reversed the entire move from Tuesday. The bears will mainly focus on stopping the upside momo by reversing one or more of the SOX, XLF and/or VIX. A move thru 1387-1409 is sideways action.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/28/12; 3:51 PM EST = +19; signal line is +0; go long 1409; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +12.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.7%; Keybot for 2012 = +21.7%)(Actual this trade = -1.5%; Actual for 2012 = +19.6%)

11/28/12; 3:26 PM EST = +19; signal line is -2 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 3:09 PM EST = +3; signal line is -3 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 2:11 PM EST = -29; signal line is -3

11/28/12; 2:07 PM EST = -13; signal line is -3

11/28/12; 2:01 PM EST = +3; signal line is -2 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 1:41 PM EST = +19; signal line is -3 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 1:39 PM EST = +3; signal line is -4 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 1:36 PM EST = -13; signal line is -5

11/28/12; 1:20 PM EST = -29; signal line is -6

11/28/12; 12:46 PM EST = -13; signal line is -6

11/28/12; 12:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is -8 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 12:31 PM EST = -13; signal line is -11

11/27/12; 3:56 PM EST = -29; signal line is -13; go short 1399; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.2%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +22.4%)(Actual this trade = +3.6%; Actual for 2012 = +21.1%)

Note Added 11/29/12 at 4:32 AM: Copper is up 0.66%. Correlating this projection to JJC, now at 44.61, is thirty cents, thus, 44.61+0.30 = 44.91, which would punch JJC thru the key bull-bear level at 44.85, or at a minimum test this important level after the opening bell. The S&P futures are higher so SOX and XLF would be expected to remain buoyant, and volatility low, so the bulls will be happy with those three parameters.  Looks like the showdown is with copper this morning which will most greatly impact broad market direction today.  If JJC moves above 44.85 and heads higher, the SPX is going 10 or 20 handles higher over coming days.  If the bears hold the 44.85 resistance and spank JJC down, the SPX will level off and likely leak lower again. Thus, JJC 44.85 holds the key. Keybot continuously recalculates this bull-bear line so it may move a few pennies either way.  Watch the JJC bull-bear resistance level as 44.83-44.88 since it will tell you a lot about the broad market today and forward.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the wild day continues. The algo has printed ten numbers today, sometimes days on end go by without any prints, some days the algo goes wild.  Keep watching XLF 15.65 and VIX 15.85. The quant is also tracking SOX 372.42.  The semconductors, financials and volatility are the three key parameters moving markets currently.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/28/12; 2:11 PM EST = -29; signal line is -3

11/28/12; 2:07 PM EST = -13; signal line is -3

11/28/12; 2:01 PM EST = +3; signal line is -2 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 1:41 PM EST = +19; signal line is -3 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 1:39 PM EST = +3; signal line is -4 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 1:36 PM EST = -13; signal line is -5

11/28/12; 1:20 PM EST = -29; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as this crazy and wild market day continues.  VIX just moved back above the 15.85 level so the bears are in biz again.  XLF is 15.64 bearish by a hair. The drama continues.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/28/12; 1:20 PM EST = -29; signal line is -6

11/28/12; 12:46 PM EST = -13; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Wednesday session moves along. A wild day thus far with a large market drop at the open then a recovery.  Watch XLF 15.66 and VIX 15.85. VIX is a hair bullish now at 15.83.  XLF remains bearish at 15.62. Keybot will likely stay short today unless the SPX moves above 1409. The Beige Book occurs within the hour so expect more market turmoil.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/28/12; 12:46 PM EST = -13; signal line is -6

11/28/12; 12:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is -8 but algorithm says stay short

11/28/12; 12:31 PM EST = -13; signal line is -11

11/27/12; 3:56 PM EST = -29; signal line is -13; go short 1399; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.2%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +22.4%)(Actual this trade = +3.6%; Actual for 2012 = +21.1%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
11/27/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 3:56 PM EST at SPX 1399; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 11.2%; Keybot is up 22.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 21.1%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
11/19/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1370; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 8.9%; Keybot is up 20.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 17.5%.
10/19/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:49 AM EST at SPX 1442; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.6%; Keybot is up 15.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.6%.
10/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:31 AM EST at SPX 1446; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.9%; Keybot is up 15.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.3%.
10/9/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:42 AM EST at SPX 1452; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 15.4%; Keybot is up 15.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
10/1/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:00 AM EST at SPX 1453; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 15.5%; Keybot is up 15.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.9%.
9/17/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:11 PM EST at SPX 1460; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 16.1%; Keybot is up 14.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.7%.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:13 PM EST at SPX 1402; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.5%; Keybot is up 10.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.5%.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:34 AM EST at SPX 1399; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.2%; Keybot is up 10.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.8%.
8/3/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1377; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.5%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.5%.
8/2/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:42 AM EST at SPX 1360; for th eyear thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.1%; Keybot algo is up 10.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
7/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1349; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.4%.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 3:56 PM, four minutes before the close, at SPX 1399.  The financials, XLF, and volatility, VIX, jumped into the bear camp and triggered the quant to turn bearish. The last trade results in a 2% gain for the algorithm program and a 3.6% in the actual trading. Keybot has now returned 21% this year twice the S&P Benchmark and four times above the average hedge fund return at 5%.  As always, stay alert for a whipsaw tomorrow. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS. XLF 15.65 and VIX 15.84 are key in the opening minutes of trading tomorrow. Both are bearish. The bulls must push one or both into the bull camp to stop the markets from dropping, otherwise, the markets will sell off in earnest.

For the SPX tomorrow (Wednesday), starting at 1399, the bulls need to touch 1409 and an upside acceleration will occur immediately attacking the 1412-1413 resistance. The bears only need a smidge of negativity in the overnight futures and that will be enough to trigger a downside acceleration once the opening bell rings taking the SPX down to test 1391 support in short order. Bulls must keep the futures green overnight.  A move thru 1400-1408 is sideways action. Markets remain erratic and unstable. The unexpected occurred today with semiconductors, financials and volatility all jumping into the bear camp during the final hour of trading. The bears are driving the bus, at least overnight into the Wednesday session tomorrow.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/27/12; 3:56 PM EST = -29; signal line is -13; go short 1399; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.2%)(Keybot this trade = +2.1%; Keybot for 2012 = +22.4%)(Actual this trade = +3.6%; Actual for 2012 = +21.1%)

11/27/12; 3:55 PM EST = -13; signal line is -14

11/27/12; 2:20 PM EST = +3; signal line is -16

11/27/12; 12:46 PM EST = +19; signal line is -19

11/27/12; 12:12 PM EST = +3; signal line is -22

11/27/12; 11:53 AM EST = +19; signal line is -23

11/27/12; 10:02 AM EST = +3; signal line is -26

11/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +19; signal line is -28

11/27/12; 9:44 AM EST = +19; signal line is -29

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST = +3; signal line is -32

11/21/12; 12:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is -33

11/21/12; 10:31 AM EST = -13; signal line is -34

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST = +3; signal line is -34

11/20/12; 3:54 PM EST = +3; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 1:55 PM EST = -13; signal line is -37

11/20/12; 1:12 PM EST = -29; signal line is -37

11/20/12; 1:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 11:12 AM EST = +3; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 10:55 AM EST = -13; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 10:30 AM EST = +3; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is -36

11/19/12; 3:59 PM EST = -13; signal line is -37

11/19/12; 10:43 AM EST = -29; signal line is -37

11/19/12; 10:33 AM EST = -45; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long

11/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is -35; go long 1370; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +8.9%)(Keybot this trade = +5.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +20.3%)(Actual this trade = +8.9%; Actual for 2012 = +17.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Qaunt is long. The algo is very active today printing three more numbers. Semiconductors and low volatility are controlling the markets today.  Watch SOX 372.42, above and market bulls win, below and market bears win.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/27/12; 12:46 PM EST = +19; signal line is -19

11/27/12; 12:12 PM EST = +3; signal line is -22

11/27/12; 11:53 AM EST = +19; signal line is -23

11/27/12; 10:02 AM EST = +3; signal line is -26

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the Tuesday session rolls along.  Keybot prints two numbers today in addition to the pre-scheduled number. The algo is tracking SOX 372.20, JJC 44.90, XLF 15.65 and VIX 15.90. Any changes to these four parameters will move the broad markets in that respective direction.  SOX and JJC are affecting markets negatively right now while XLF and VIX are affecting markets positively. The SPX is moving sideways thus far today, the bulls ran higher in the early trade only to receive a spank down from 1409. If VIX and XLF join the bear camp, the quant will be in position to want to flip to the short side.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/27/12; 10:02 AM EST = +3; signal line is -26

11/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +19; signal line is -28

11/27/12; 9:44 AM EST = +19; signal line is -29

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST = +3; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Tuesday session. The algo did not print any numbers today. The bulls need to push copper, JJC, above 44.90, or the SOX above 372.50, and the markets will accelerate higher. The bears need to push the VIX above 15.91, or XLF below 15.62, and the markets will accelerate lower. For the SPX starting at 1406, the bulls need to push above 1409 which will trigger an upside market acceleration. The bears need to push under 1398 to ignite a strong downward acceleration. A move thru 1399-1408 is sideways action. Markets remain highly erratic and unstable. Expect the unexpected. Despite the 35 point difference between the algo number and the signal line with the bulls cruising, use extreme caution.  Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST = +3; signal line is -32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long into the new week of trading.  The algo is tracking five sectors right now which are dictating the broad market direction; SOX 373 (now bearish), JJC 44.95 (now bearish), GTX 4980 (now bearish), VIX 15.95 (now bullish) and XLF 15.62 (now bullish). Any chage to any of these five parameters will push the markets in that respective direction. If all five remain status quo, then markets drift sideways. RTH 43.92 is also important moving forward.

For the SPX starting Monday at 1409, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures and the bulls will receive another upside acceleration with the SPX immediately testing the strong 1412-1413 resistance.  The bears must stop the upside momo and can do that by keeping the futures red overnight. In addition, the bears must push the SPX downwards to touch 1391, retracing Friday's up move, to regain control. This is a formidable task but not impossible. A move thru 1392-1409 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising.

12/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST = +3; signal line is -32

11/21/12; 12:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is -33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long thru the holiday weekend. The algo did not print any numbers during the Friday session. The bulls took no prisoners last week with a huge 4% run-up in the broad indexes occurring. The quant is tracking semiconductors (SOX), copper (JJC), commodities (GTX), volatility (VIX) and financials (XLF) and all five of these sectors are key come Monday morning. The specific levels can be identifed once the algo prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/12; 12:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is -33

11/21/12; 10:31 AM EST = -13; signal line is -34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Markets are closed in the States today and tomorrow's session will close early at 1:00 PM EST. The algo printed two more numbers yesterday.  XLF 15.62 and SPX 1391 told the story yesterday, only the markets are sitting on the fence unable to fully commit to one side or the other. Make no mistake, however, the bulls are running. The XLF moved above 15.62, only by pennies, but above nonetheless and this contributes to bullishness in the markets. The SPX 1391 resistance, if it gives way, would send price to 1400+ but the bulls could not punch up thru yesterday.  With the XLF above 15.62, the SPX should continue higher.

The quant is tracking four key parameters; VIX 15.95 (now 15.31 contributing bullishly to markets), XLF 15.62 (now 15.65 contributing bullishly to markets), RTH 43.92 (now 44.25 contributing bullishly to markets) and JJC 44.85 (now 44.21 contributing bearishly to markets). Any change to any of the four will send markets in that respective direction. The bulls need to push copper, JJC, above 44.85, which will guarantee the SPX well up and over 1400. The bears need to send the XLF immediately under 15.62 to stop the upside market momo.

For the SPX for Friday, the shortened session, starting at 1391, key S/R, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures overnight and this will launch an upside run into the mid 1390's and opening the door to a test of 1403 in the coming days. The bears will try to keep the futures negative overnight to prevent the upside market acceleration from occurring. In addition, the bears will try to push the SPX five points lower, under 1386, to accelerate the downside for the broad indexes, and return the momo to the bear side.  A move thru 1387-1391 is sideways action for Friday.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/12; 12:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is -33

11/21/12; 10:31 AM EST = -13; signal line is -34

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST = +3; signal line is -34

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The pre-scheduled print today results in a two tick increase to the signal line.  The RTH remains well above 43.92.  XLF is now fighting the 15.61-15.62 level so use this is a guide today. Market bulls win above 15.62, bears will win if the XLF falls under 15.62.  The SPX attacked the 1390 level but failed, so far. XLF 15.62 and SPX 1391 will tell you the story today.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST = +3; signal line is -34

11/20/12; 3:54 PM EST = +3; signal line is -36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. The bulls are running and in firm control with the XLF over 15.62, RTH above 43.92 and VIX below 15.95.  Continue watching these three key parameters.  For Wednesday, with the SPX starting at 1388, the bulls only need a two point push higher, to touch the 1390 handle, and an upside acceleration will occur, the strong 1391 resistance will give way quickly. So watch to see if the bulls can muster up two positive points in the futures overnight. The bears need to push under 1377 to accelerate the downside.  A move thru 1378-1389 is sideways action.  Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the action can be updated at that time.  The algo is very active this week. Keybot did not whipsaw back to the short side, yet, tomorrow will be a key test. If RTH remains above 43.92 and XLF stays above 15.62, the broad indexes are heading higher.

The average hedge fund is up 5.9% this year. Keybot is up 17.5%.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/12; 3:54 PM EST = +3; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 1:55 PM EST = -13; signal line is -37

11/20/12; 1:12 PM EST = -29; signal line is -37

11/20/12; 1:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 11:12 AM EST = +3; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 10:55 AM EST = -13; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 10:30 AM EST = +3; signal line is -36

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is -36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long ahead of the Tuesday session.  The pre-scheduled number this morning results in a one tick move higher for the signal line. As highlighted last evening, watch VIX 15.95, XLF 15.62 and RTH 43.94, especially RTH 43.94 at the opening bell to gauge market direction. The bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures to send the SPX immediately to 1391.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is -36

11/19/12; 3:59 PM EST = -13; signal line is -37

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and the algo printed another number just before the close.  For Tuesday, watch VIX 15.95 (now bullish at 15.24), XLF 15.62 (now bearish at 15.57) and RTH 43.94 (now bullish at 43.98). These three parameters will dictate market direction.  The bulls need XLF over 15.62 to seal the upside deal.  The bears need to move the VIX over 15.95 and the RTH under 43.94.  Pay close attention to the RTH as soon as the opening bell rings since it will immediately indicate market direction.

For the SPX starting at 1386.89, the bulls only need to touch the 1387 handle and an upside acceleration will occur, 1391 will be tested in quick order.  The bears are trying to stop the upside momo and they can do that by pushing RTH back under 43.94 and moving VIX above 15.95 as soon as possible. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning so the action can be updated at that time.  The bulls are driving the bus and if XLF moves over 15.62, the SPX will be heading over 1400.

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST =

11/19/12; 3:59 PM EST = -13; signal line is -37

11/19/12; 10:43 AM EST = -29; signal line is -37

11/19/12; 10:33 AM EST = -45; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long

11/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is -35; go long 1370; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +8.9%)(Keybot this trade = +5.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +20.3%)(Actual this trade = +8.9%; Actual for 2012 = +17.5%)

SPX Daily Chart Shows Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
11/19/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1370; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 8.9%; Keybot is up 20.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 17.5%. Stay alert for a whipsaw.
10/19/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:49 AM EST at SPX 1442; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.6%; Keybot is up 15.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.6%.
10/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:31 AM EST at SPX 1446; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.9%; Keybot is up 15.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.3%.
10/9/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:42 AM EST at SPX 1452; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 15.4%; Keybot is up 15.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
10/1/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:00 AM EST at SPX 1453; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 15.5%; Keybot is up 15.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.9%.
9/17/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:11 PM EST at SPX 1460; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 16.1%; Keybot is up 14.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.7%.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:13 PM EST at SPX 1402; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.5%; Keybot is up 10.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.5%.
9/4/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:34 AM EST at SPX 1399; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 11.2%; Keybot is up 10.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 3.8%.
8/3/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1377; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 9.5%; Keybot algo is up 9.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 2.5%.
8/2/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:42 AM EST at SPX 1360; for th eyear thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.1%; Keybot algo is up 10.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
7/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1349; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.2%; Keybot algo is up 9.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.4%.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the algorithm motors along today printing two more numbers. Keep watching VIX 15.95 and XLF 15.61. Bears are trying to push the VIX above 15.95 and bulls are trying to push the XLF above 15.61.  The markets will move in the same direction of whichever one wins.

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST =

11/19/12; 10:43 AM EST = -29; signal line is -37

11/19/12; 10:33 AM EST = -45; signal line is -37 but algorithm says stay long

11/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is -35; go long 1370; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +8.9%)(Keybot this trade = +5.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +20.3%)(Actual this trade = +8.9%; Actual for 2012 = +17.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long at the opening bell today.  The SPX spiked over 1369, the NYA over 8000 and the VIX under 16, as highlighted yesterday, so the algo did indeed turn bullish at SPX 1370. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO. The short trade over the last month resulted in a 5% gain for the quant's computer program and a 9% gain in the actual trading (due to the 2x ETF). Note that both Keybot's program and the actual trading have now exceeded the SPX benchmark Index on the year. It took 10 months, but slow and steady Keybot outsmarted the benchmark, at least up to this point.  The program is up 20% on the year and the actual return is now up 18% on the year.

Continue watching the above three parameters; the fine-tuned numbers currently indicate SPX 1369, NYA 7995 and VIX 15.95.  In addition, Keybot is now tracking XLF 15.61. Thus, use VIX 15.95 (now at 15.82 contributing bullishly to markets) and XLF 15.61 (now at 15.55 contributing bearishly to markets) as your guide forward. If XLF moves above 15.61, the broad indexes will move much higher towards 1391. The bears must prevent XLF 15.61 and move the VIX back above 15.95 to stop the upside momo.  The bulls are driving the bus now, that was sudden and sharp. Stay alert for a whipsaw since the move is not overly convincing as yet. The bulls need XLF 15.61 and they can throw the confetti.

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST =

11/19/12; 9:30 AM EST = -29; signal line is -35; go long 1370; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +8.9%)(Keybot this trade = +5.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +20.3%)(Actual this trade = +8.9%; Actual for 2012 = +17.5%)

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = -74; signal line is -34

11/14/12; 12:12 PM EST = -74; signal line is -31

11/14/12; 11:34 AM EST = -60; signal line is -29

11/14/12; 11:24 AM EST = -74; signal line is -26

11/14/12; 11:08 AM EST = -60; signal line is -24

11/14/12; 10:45 AM EST = -74; signal line is -22

11/14/12; 10:28 AM EST = -60; signal line is -20

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = -46; signal line is -18

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17

11/8/12; 10:06 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16

11/8/12; 9:38 AM EST = -31; signal line is -15

11/8/12; 9:30 AM EST = -47; signal line is -13

11/7/12; 1:19 PM EST = -31; signal line is -12

11/7/12; 1:09 PM EST = -15; signal line is -11

11/7/12; 1:01 PM EST = -31; signal line is -9

11/7/12; 10:58 AM EST = -47; signal line is -7

11/7/12; 10:56 AM EST = -31; signal line is -3

11/7/12; 10:01 AM EST = -15; signal line is -1

11/7/12; 9:47 AM EST = +1; signal line is +2

11/7/12; 9:31 AM EST = -15; signal line is +4

11/6/12; 9:30 AM EST = +1; signal line is +6

11/5/12; 3:52 PM EST = -15; signal line is +7

11/5/12; 3:40 PM EST = +1; signal line is +10

11/5/12; 10:35 AM EST = -15; signal line is +11

11/5/12; 9:39 AM EST = -31; signal line is +14

11/5/12; 9:35 AM EST = -15; signal line is +17

11/4/12; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +20

11/2/12; 9:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +22

11/1/12; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +23

10/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +1; signal line is +25

10/31/12; 2:04 PM EST = +1; signal line is +26

10/31/12; 10:40 AM EST = -15; signal line is +28

10/31/12; 9:30 AM EST = +1; signal line is +30

10/28/12; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is +32

10/26/12; 10:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is +34

10/25/12; 9:43 AM EST = -16; signal line is +37

10/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +39

10/23/12; 3:31 PM EST = -16; signal line is +41

10/23/12; 2:39 PM EST = +0; signal line is +44

10/23/12; 9:30 AM EST = -16; signal line is +46

10/22/12; 9:30 AM EST = +14; signal line is +49

10/21/12; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +52

10/19/12; 12:15 PM EST = +30; signal line is +53

10/19/12; 11:49 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55; go short 1442; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +14.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.3%; Keybot for 2012 = +15.3%)(Actual this trade = -0.7%; Actual for 2012 = +8.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the new holiday-shortened trading week. The bears remain in control despite the market bounce on Friday. Watch NYA 8000 and SPX 1369 which will indicate the degree of bullish market strength. If neither level is achieved, the bulls got nothing. If one or both levels are attained, the upside market rally is real and will likely extend a few days.  If both levels are achieved and the VIX drops under 16, Keybot will likely flip to the long side and the upside rally will obviously be real and healthy.

For the SPX starting at 1360, the bulls only need two positive points, to punch up thru 1362 and an upside acceleration will occur with the SPX attacking 1369 as discussed above.  Thus, watch the futures overnight tonight to see if the bulls can gain two points of oomph, or not. The bears need to push under 1344 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1345-1361 is sideways action for Monday.  NYA 8000, SPX 1369 and VIX 16 will dictate market direction early this week. All three begin in the bear camp. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers before Thanksgiving.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST =

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = -74; signal line is -34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short into the weekend idling all day long on Friday without printing any numbers. SPX 1369 and/or NYA 8000 will be in play on Monday but the bears are in firm control even if these levels are regained. Next week can be set up once the algo prints the Sunday number tomorrow.

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/14/12; 12:12 PM EST = -74; signal line is -31

11/14/12; 11:34 AM EST = -60; signal line is -29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and calmly idled along today without printing any numbers. The bears are cruising.  Continue to watch for a market bottom as described in the previous message. A market bottom may occur tomorrow or Monday.  The algo appears content with the short side. For the SPX on Friday starting at 1353, the bulls need to touch the 1361 handle, if so, the upside will accelerate. If the bears can move under 1348, the downside will accelerate. A move thru 1349-1360 is sideways action.

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/14/12; 12:12 PM EST = -74; signal line is -31

11/14/12; 11:34 AM EST = -60; signal line is -29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short ahead of the Thursday session.  The selling was strong today with two key levels giving way as described; SPX 1369 and NYA 8000.  Keybot was wildly printing numbers late morning so it was easier to let the smoke clear before updating. It is obvious that the algo would be staying short today.  The algo number is at -74, a very low number and for an oscillator, think of this as an indication of oversold conditions.  Looking back, you can study the data in the archives, the market bottoms in October and November 2011 occurred with the -70's prints.  Interestingly, the November 2011 action occurred in this same time frame. The markets dropped into Thanksgiving, even the half session Friday, which would be seven days from now, then the markets rallied on the Monday following Thanksgiving.  In October 2011, Keybot printed the low -70's numbers the first few days of the month which identified that bottom.  Thus, both market bottoms last Fall were identifed by the -70's prints and the market bottom occurred from zero to within three days of the first -70's print.  In other words if the October and November fractals play out the same way now, the markets likely either bottomed today, or will bottom tomorrow or Friday, and by Monday, Keybot will likely flip long to signal a rally. Stay very alert.  The caution flag, however, was removed since the bears have driven markets strongly negative today.

Watch VIX 16, NYA 8000 and SPX 1369 for any signs of life by bulls. For the SPX starting at 1355, the bears only need to push under 1352.50 and the downside selling will accelerate with the SPX on its way to 1345.  The bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding and that will begin by preventing the SPX from falling under 1353.  A move thru 1353-1375 is sideways action. The bears are in firm control but the markets are likely going to print a bottom over the next one to three days, so stay nimble. Remember, Keybot is not designed to catch the exact market bottoms or tops, it takes the smoothest path thru the year, thus, the markets will likely spike off the bottom perhaps as much as ten handles or more before Keybot likely flips to the long side. If trading the markets, you must be married to your mouse for the next three days since it appears that a market bottom may occur at anytime as this week plays out.

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/14/12; 12:12 PM EST = -74; signal line is -31

11/14/12; 11:34 AM EST = -60; signal line is -29

11/14/12; 11:24 AM EST = -74; signal line is -26

11/14/12; 11:08 AM EST = -60; signal line is -24

11/14/12; 10:45 AM EST = -74; signal line is -22

11/14/12; 10:28 AM EST = -60; signal line is -20

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = -46; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and did not print any numbers yesterday. The bears explored the lower side of the current SPX range of 1369-1391, and the bears explored the upper side, in the Monday session. The U.S. futures are elevated as this is typed with the S&P's up about ten.  SPX 1369 remains as the cliff edge for markets.  Ditto NYA 8002.  The NYA fell to 8004 at yesterday's open but immediately bounced, now at 8023. Big trouble occurs if either SPX 1369 or NYA 8002 is lost. Bulls will create a recovery rally if they can prevent these danger levels from triggering. Watch VIX 16, now at 16.65. Bulls will stage a recovery rally if they move the VIX under 16.

For the SPX starting at 1375, the bulls need to touch the 1389 handle, if so, an upside acceleration will occur.  Thus, ten points will not do it, the bulls need about 14 points and more. The bears need to drop under 1371, only four points lower, and a downside acceleration will occur for markets with an immediate test of the 1369 cliff edge which will likely fail if 1371 fails. A move thru 1372-1388 is sideways action.

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = -46; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Tuesday session and did not print any numbers yesterday.  Trouble over Greece has the global markets and the U.S. futures lower overnight.  Yesterday was a throwaway session since the volume was fumes, likely the second lowest volume day of the year.  The quant continues to track the lines in the sand; SPX 1369.44 (now at 1380.03) and NYA 8003 (now at 8054).  The NYSE had technical gliches yesterday so the NYA was not printing properly until after lunch. 

For the SPX starting at 1380, the bulls need to touch the 1385 handle and an upside market acceleration will occur.  The bears have a slightly easier path only needing to drop under 1377, three points lower, and a downside acceleration will occur sending the SPX for a test of the edge of the cliff at 1369. If 1369 is lost, all hope is lost for market bulls. A move thru 1378-1384 is sideways action. The S&P's are down 11 in the overnight session right now, about 5 1/2 hours before the U.S. opening bell.

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = -46; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short going into the new trading week.  For the SPX starting at 1380, the bears need to drop under 1373 to accelerate a downside move. The 1369 level would likely trigger serious selling and would probably fail in short order if the 1373 fails.  The NYA, now at 8054, is at a similar crossroads. IF NYA loses 8001, the broad indexes will move strongly lower.  The bulls need to punch up thru 1391 and an upside acceleation will occur.  If the SPX stays under 1391, the bulls got nothing.  The bulls will also try to lure the financials, XLF, back into the bull camp, and this would occur if the XLF moves above 15.73. If XLF is over 15.73 a relief rally will be confirmed. A move thru SPX 1374-1390 is sideways action. The bears are in firm control. Exercise caution.

11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST = -46; signal line is -18

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the weekend. The algo is showing significant technical damage across many sectors and other indicators.  The quant is tracking SPX 1369 and NYA 8001 as the lines in the sand for the broad markets, the edge of the cliff. The ugliness will accelerate if either of these levels give way, if both do, then the markets have a  high chance of dropping into free fall. Next week's levels of interest can be identified once the pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17

11/8/12; 10:06 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the Friday pre-scheduled number prints. The bears are driving the bus.  The SPX 1375 level is strong support and the 1369 cliff edge remains in play. The NYA 8001 cliff edge is also in play, the NYA now printing 8067 with a LOD thus far at 8014 only 13 points away from causing disaster.

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST = -46; signal line is -17

11/8/12; 10:06 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and did not print any further numbers after 10:06 AM. The major sectors making up the the broad indexes are all in the bear camp.  SPX 1369 represents the cliff edge for the markets. This is a major cyclical bear signal. Likewise, NYA 8001.  If either one of these fails, the other will follow quickly, and the markets will be tumbling in near free fall.  The Friday session is very important. The bulls have to bounce the markets now, probably tomorrow morning, otherwise they will lose all control and the dramatic downside move will create panic.

For the SPX tomorrow, beginning at 1377.51, closing at the lows, the bears have an easy path. If the futures are negative even by only a smidge a downside acceleration will occur at the opening bell and the SPX 1369 and NYA 8001 tests will occur where the fate of the markets will be decided. The bulls continue to try and stop the bleeding and that begins by keeping the overnight futures positive with all their might.  Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the action can be updated at that time.

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/8/12; 10:06 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16

11/8/12; 9:38 AM EST = -31; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as another active day for the algo begins with three numbers printing thus far.  The RTH is under 44.38, in fact giving up the ghost right now approaching the flat 44 level, contributing bearishly to markets.  The XLF popped at the open but is currently under 15.73 causing maket bearishness as well.  With both of these negative it is surprising that the markets are not several handles lower. The SPX is moving sideways thus far today. The bears are cruising.

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/8/12; 10:06 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16

11/8/12; 9:38 AM EST = -31; signal line is -15

11/8/12; 9:30 AM EST = -47; signal line is -13

11/7/12; 1:19 PM EST = -31; signal line is -12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bearish ahead of the ECB's rate decision and press conference in the morning before the U.S. open.  The session ended  with the RTH above 44.38 contributing bullishly to markets and the SOX under 378.60 and XLF under 15.73 contributing bearishly.  The bulls need to push the SOX above 378.60 and XLF above 15.73.  The bears need to push the RTH under 44.38 to accelerate the downside. A breach of NYA 8003 will create further market downside.

For the SPX starting at 1395, the bears need to push back down to 1388 to reignite the strong downside selling.  The bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding and will succeed if they bring XLF above 15.73.  A move thru 1390-1425 is sideways action.

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/7/12; 1:19 PM EST = -31; signal line is -12

11/7/12; 1:09 PM EST = -15; signal line is -11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Lots of excitement ongoing today. Five more numbers print today. It is interesting how days may go by where Keybot does not make a peep then other days it goes wild.  The algo number dropped lower indicating further bearishness but the signal line is close behind.  Watch RTH 44.40 (the new level that Keybot calculated and is now tracking) and XLF 15.73.  Above either of these two levels and the bulls will recover.  If both stay below the levels shown, the markets are in for further pain.  The XLF is 15.72 right now, a hair bearish, and the RTH is 44.48 on the bullish side. Thus, bulls want to see the XLF above 15.73 and the broad indexes will recover higher. Bears want to see RTH fail under 44.40 and the downside will accelerate into the close. Keybot also continues to track SOX 378.60 which would be positive for the bulls.

11/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

11/9/12; 10:00 AM EST =

11/7/12; 1:19 PM EST = -31; signal line is -12

11/7/12; 1:09 PM EST = -15; signal line is -11

11/7/12; 1:01 PM EST = -31; signal line is -9

11/7/12; 10:58 AM EST = -47; signal line is -7

11/7/12; 10:56 AM EST = -31; signal line is -3

11/7/12; 10:01 AM EST = -15; signal line is -1