Sunday, November 18, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the new holiday-shortened trading week. The bears remain in control despite the market bounce on Friday. Watch NYA 8000 and SPX 1369 which will indicate the degree of bullish market strength. If neither level is achieved, the bulls got nothing. If one or both levels are attained, the upside market rally is real and will likely extend a few days.  If both levels are achieved and the VIX drops under 16, Keybot will likely flip to the long side and the upside rally will obviously be real and healthy.

For the SPX starting at 1360, the bulls only need two positive points, to punch up thru 1362 and an upside acceleration will occur with the SPX attacking 1369 as discussed above.  Thus, watch the futures overnight tonight to see if the bulls can gain two points of oomph, or not. The bears need to push under 1344 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1345-1361 is sideways action for Monday.  NYA 8000, SPX 1369 and VIX 16 will dictate market direction early this week. All three begin in the bear camp. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers before Thanksgiving.

11/25/12; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/12; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/12; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/12; 7:00 PM EST = -74; signal line is -34

3 comments:

  1. I've been following the adventures of Keybot for some time now, and have been meaning to ask the following question: do you have simulated returns for 2008 (and perhaps earlier). I ask because it would be very instructive to see how Keybot might have performed in a bear market.

    Having said that, I appreciate and admire the work you do here. Thank you.

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  2. Algyros,

    I'll echo your thanks for the work and sharing of info here as it's interesting and I know it takes substantial time...thank you also.

    I don't think there is data going back that far since Keybot the Quant Algorithm Go-Live Date was 11/23/08 (that's on the left column down below a few ads).

    G

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  3. Hello Al and G, yes, Keybot's go-live date is November 2008, in the middle of the crash, how is that for timing? The model took a decade to develop so all the behavior was explored going back many years, even decades, but the model did not gel into its complete package where the detailed data is recorded until late 2008. Keybot flipped long at the open today.

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