Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. Volatility is higher helping the bears but key sectors such as financials, retail and semiconductors remain in the bull camp. Any one of these three would need to drop about -2% to create the bear fuel necessary to move markets strongly lower. Despite the one point difference between the algo number and signal line, the bulls appear to be motoring along fine. Of course, in these erratic and unstable markets, things can change very quickly. Continue to watch the VIX 14 level as a bull-bear market gauge. VIX begins at 14.49 today. If VIX drops under 14 it will be clear that the bulls are taking the markets back to the all-time highs again. If VIX stays above 14, the markets will continue to develop a sick malaise moving forward.
For the SPX starting at 1583, the bulls need to touch the 1598 handle to accelerate the upside and likely begin the trek to the 1620's. The bears need to push under 1581, less than two points lower, and a downside acceleration will occur. A move through 1582-1597 is sideways action today. Markets may react violently, up or down, to the ECB rate decision in less than two hours. Bulls want VIX 14. Bears want SPX 1581.
5/5/13;
7:00 PM EST =
5/3/13;
9:00 AM EST =
5/1/13; 9:36 AM EST =
+32; signal line is +31
4/30/13;
7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +32
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