Sunday, August 25, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new trading week but the algo number is now only one tiny point away from flipping the algo to the long side.  Utilities are key, thus, Treasury yields are important. Rising yields sends utes lower and visa versa. UTIL is 482.94 and the bulls only need 20 pennies higher, to push UTIL up over 483.14, and stay above, to verify the recovery rally.  If UTIL moves above 483.14, and the SPX moves above 1665, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip long. Also watch VIX 14.24 (now creating bullishness), XLF 20.12 (now creating bearishness) and RTH 53.96 (now creating bearishness). The movement of UTIL, VIX, XLF and RTH dictate market direction this week.

For the SPX starting at 1664, the bulls need to touch the 1665 handle and an upside acceleration will occur which likely locks in a sustainable upside rally.  The bears need to push under 1655 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1656-1664 is sideways action. Bulls need to push utilities and financials higher while keeping volatility low. Bears need to keep utilities and financials lower while pushing volatility higher. Watch the Sunday evening futures since a couple positive points will likely signal that the recovery rally has sustainability. 

9/1/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/13; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/13; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/13; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +0
8/23/13; 3:20 PM EST = -1; signal line is +1

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