Thursday, September 5, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as more market drama plays out. Markets stumble sideways all day awaiting the Monthly Jobs Report in the morning. Copper was up all night in the overnight session making for happy bulls but one hour before the equities session opened copper collapsed into negative territory. Things were looking good for bears until retail sky-rocketed higher with RTH up and over 53.74. Keybot was only one whisker from going long. Then at the close, RTH faded and closed at 53.73, one single penny under the critical 53.74 bull-bear line in the sand. Amazing how Keybot identifies these numbers in advance of when they occur.  RTH 53.74 is key since markets will now move in the same direction as the retail sector moves. Also watch JJC 39.93, now at 39.84, only 7 cents away, in the bear camp causing market negativity. Retail and copper hold the fate of the markets in their hands.

For the SPX starting at 1655, the bulls need to push above 1659 and it is clear sailing higher. The bears need to push under 1653 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1654-1658 is sideways action, a very tight range, so a winner will likely be decided and price will commit in that direction. If either RTH moves above 53.74, or JJC above 39.93, and the SPX moves and stays above 1659, Keybot will likely flip long. Markets are likely ready to leap one way or the other and the Jobs Report may be the trigger, so a gap up, or gap down is on the table. For now, the bears continue driving the bus but the markets are a coin flip moving forward. Watch copper overnight for an initial hint on how JJC will move. The algo prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning so the action can be updated at that time.

9/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
9/5/13; 3:43 PM EST = -15; signal line is -8
9/5/13; 9:42 AM EST = +1; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
9/4/13; 1:59 PM EST = -15; signal line is -8

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