Thursday, November 28, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the Thursday holiday. Happy Thanksgiving. Happy Hanukkah. The bulls keep pushing higher and will receive upside confirmation with stronger utilities, copper and commodities, but all 3 remain bearish. Watch UTIL 490.64 and 481.68, now at 487.16 creating market bearishness under 490.64 but creating bullishness above 481.68. Bulls need UTIL above 490.64 and the SPX will run towards the 1820's. Bears need UTIL under 482 and this will confirm that the much-awaited market selling is finally here. For next week, UTIL 490.64 and 482.94 will be the 2 important numbers so in Friday's trade, moving into the early close at 1 PM EST, watch to see where UTIL settles. If UTIL finishes the week under 483, the market bears will have an advantage next week. The UTIL 478-485 range is important for the next 7 weeks and a major tell on markets. If UTIL loses 483 in the coming days and then the lower end of the range under 480 and 478 and lower, the broad indexes will be selling off in force. If UTIL drifts higher and stays above 483 and higher, and moves above 491, the bulls are on easy street moving forward. For Friday, if UTIL moves above 490.64 and/or JJC above 39.94, and the SPX moves above 1808.50, and remains above, Keybot will likely flip long.

Semiconductors are on a wild ride lately moving 1% per day, up and down, over the last 2 weeks. Bears need weaker semi's to lock in the market downside. The algo is also focused on volatility; VIX 13.90.  VIX is 12.98 causing market bullishness but less than one point away from the 13.90 bull-bear danger line. Bad things will happen to markets if the VIX moves above 13.90. Bulls will be drinking wine without a care in the world as long as VIX stays under 13.90. For the SPX starting at 1807, the bulls need to push above 1808.50, only 1-1/2 point higher, and an upside acceleration will occur with the SPX moving toward 1820. The bears need to push under 1803 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1804-1808 is sideways action for the Friday shortened session. Watch UTIL 490.64, VIX 13.90 and SPX 1808.50 and 1803 to determine market direction.

12/1/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/27/13; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36
11/26/13; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36

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