Sunday, January 25, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant begins the new week of trading on the long side but the algorithm wants to flip to the short side. If the SPX drops under 2051, and remains under, Keybot will likely flip short so watch to see if any weakness appears in overnight futures. If a gap down occurs, about 90 minutes of trading may be required before the algo will commit.There is only one point difference between the algo number and signal line and the model wants to flip short as soon as all the necessary parameters latch; the SPX under 2051 is key.

The algo is tracking NYA 10805, VIX 15.85 and SOX 672.43. The bulls need either NYA above 10805 or VIX under 15.85 and it is all systems go for the upside rally in stocks. Either one would do and both will double the upside fuel. The bears need to push SOX (semiconductors) under 672.43 to create further downside selling pressure. If status quo remains, SOX bullish above 672.43 and NYA bearish under 10805 and VIX bearish above 15.85, then markets will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. One of those three parameters will flinch and expose the market direction ahead. Watch the NYA 10805 level closely.

For the SPX starting at 2052, the bears only need a point and one-half, to push under 2050.50 and the downside will accelerate. The bulls need to touch the 2063 handle to create an upside acceleration. A move through 2051-2062 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. Friday is the last day of trading for January; EOM (end-of-month). The month and year started at SPX 2059.

2/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/30/15; 10:00 AM EST =
1/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
1/25/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
1/23/15; 3:42 PM EST = +22; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long

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