Thursday, February 5, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long today at SPX 2055 as the parameters previously highlighted all turn bullish creating the lift in markets. The choppy sideways pattern on the year remains in play. The SPX has already covered nearly 25% of its 2000-point range this year already. The bulls created strength with NYA 10809, SOX 670.05 and XLF 23.86. Continue to monitor these three characters continuously since they will push the stock market in the same respective direction. All three are in the bull camp so the bears need to push price under one of the levels to stop the upside rally. If all three remain bullish the bear beatings will continue and equities will keep floating higher.

The algo is tracking financials and volatility as the two key parameters effecting market direction right now. Volatility dropped today but it remained in the bear camp causing market negativity. The bulls need to push VIX under 16.48 and a strong leg higher will occur for stocks with the SPX at 2067 in a heartbeat and working towards the 2070's.  The bears need to push XLF under 23.86 (now at 23.95) and the equities rally will be stopped. Bears cannot receive strong negative juice, however, unless 2 of the 3 parameters in the first paragraph turn bearish.

The algorithm takes another loss this year of one-half percent for the algorithm program and the actual trading. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY. The algo is in single ETF mode for at least one month forward due to the erratic whipsaw action in markets currently. The Monthly Jobs Report hits in the morning so who knows, perhaps another whipsaw occurs to the downside. Markets are very erratic and unstable.

For the SPX on Friday starting at 2063, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 2064 handle and boom, price will be at 2067 in an instant and likely poke up through in quick order on its way to 2070+. Watch the S&P futures to see if the bulls have one point in them. Global markets should be quiet overnight and the rubber hits the road at 8:30 AM EST where futures may react violently one way or the other. The market bears need to push under 2044 to regain their mojo. A move through 2045-2063 is sideways action to end the week. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow before the opening bell. The bulls are driving the bus; how far will they travel? VIX 16.48 and XLF 23.86 will tell you the answer at the opening bell.

2/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
2/5/15; 9:59 AM EST = +56; signal line is +23
2/5/15; 9:49 AM EST = +40; signal line is +23; go long 2055; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -7.3%) [E: 201501260931A]
2/5/15; 9:48 AM EST = +40; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
2/5/15; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 3:51 PM EST = +10; signal line is +21
2/4/15; 3:47 PM EST = +26; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 3:46 PM EST = +40; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 3:25 PM EST = +56; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 3:22 PM EST = +40; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 3:09 PM EST = +26; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 1:53 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23
2/4/15; 1:33 PM EST = +24; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 12:45 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23
2/4/15; 10:50 AM EST = +24; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
2/4/15; 10:29 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24
2/4/15; 10:07 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
2/4/15; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +25
2/3/15; 2:50 PM EST = +24; signal line is +25
2/3/15; 2:33 PM EST = +10; signal line is +24
2/3/15; 1:35 PM EST = +24; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
2/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +24
1/30/15; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24
1/28/15; 2:26 PM EST = +10; signal line is +24
1/28/15; 11:34 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
1/28/15; 11:21 AM EST = +10; signal line is +23
1/28/15; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
1/27/15; 3:02 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23
1/27/15; 3:01 PM EST = +24; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
1/27/15; 2:27 PM EST = +40; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
1/27/15; 2:25 PM EST = +24; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
1/27/15; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +21
1/27/15; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +22; go short 2047; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = -6.8%) [E: 201501260931A]

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