Monday, March 30, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today shortly after the opening bell at SPX 2082. The algo exits DOG and enters DIA. The Keybot algorithm program is flat on the last trade with the actual trading taking a minor loss. The benchmark index remains up +1.1% on the year.

4/5//15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
3/31/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/30/15; 11:16 AM EST = +66; signal line is +43
3/30/15; 10:11 AM EST = +50; signal line is +42
3/30/15; 10:01 AM EST = +66; signal line is +42
3/30/15; 9:46 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41; go long 2082; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.0%)
3/29/15; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +41
3/27/15; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +41
3/26/15; 3:39 PM EST = +35; signal line is +41
3/26/15; 3:07 PM EST = +21; signal line is +41
3/26/15; 11:45 AM EST = +35; signal line is +41
3/26/15; 10:35 AM EST = +21; signal line is +42
3/26/15; 10:10 AM EST = +7; signal line is +43
3/26/15; 9:36 AM EST = +21; signal line is +45
3/25/15; 11:34 AM EST = +35; signal line is +46; go short 2082; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2015 = -2.6%)

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short today at SPX 2082; algo exits SPY enters DOG.

3/29/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/15; 11:34 AM EST = +35; signal line is +46; go short 2082; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2015 = -2.6%)
3/25/15; 11:22 AM EST = +51; signal line is +48
3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST = +67; signal line is +48
3/20/15; 9:36 AM EST = +67; signal line is +46
3/19/15; 10:13 AM EST = +51; signal line is +45
3/19/15; 9:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +44
3/19/15; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +42
3/18/15; 3:11 PM EST = +67; signal line is +41
3/18/15; 2:13 PM EST = +51; signal line is +39; go long 2090; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.9%)

Friday, March 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The algo printed three numbers in the Thursday session. Copper receives a  boost which creates ongoing buoyancy in the stock market. JJC ends yesterday's session at 31.84 exactly at the number the algo called out one day before it occurred. Isn't it amazing and remarkable that the algorithm can identify these important parameters and levels before they occur? There are, however, surprisingly, only a few of the over 3,000 daily users of the KE Blog sites that view this information as important, useful and valuable to their daily trading.

The algo is tracking JJC 31.88 currently. Market bulls will receive upside juice driving stock prices higher if JJC moves above 31.88 and copper is trading higher this morning which will create this outcome. Bears need to push copper lower to create a ceiling in the stock market.

UTIL 597 is another important level to watch. UTIL begins at 591 and bulls will receive strong upside juice if UTIL moves above 597. The UTIL 597.56 bull-bear level is very important for every day next week so pay attention to this level at the 4 PM EST closing bell today for a heads up on market direction come Monday. If JJC moves above 31.88 and UTIL above 597-598, the SPX will be running well above 2100. Bears must prevent both these levels with all their might to halt the stock market rally.

For the SPX starting at 2089, the bulls need to touch the 2099 handle and a several-handle upside acceleration will occur above 2100. S&P futures are +7 at this writing about 2-1/2 hours in front of the opening bell so bulls are targeting 2099 and want to make a run using copper as the upside fuel. The bears must push below 2086 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2087-2098 is sideways action to end the week.

The algo number is only six points above the signal line so the caution flag is out. The bulls are driving the bus and relying on copper to carry stocks higher. Bears can only lock-in a downside move ahead if either the VIX moves above 15.86, or NYA under 10842, or UTIL under 575; any one of the three will do.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/15; 10:13 AM EST = +51; signal line is +45
3/19/15; 9:53 AM EST = +67; signal line is +44
3/19/15; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +42
3/18/15; 3:11 PM EST = +67; signal line is +41

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today at SPX 2090, another whipsaw, shortly after 2 PM when Fed Chair Yellen began speaking at the FOMC press conference. It was surprising that the algo did not flip long after the opening bell and in fact as seen shortly before 2 PM, the bears were cruising along, then whammo, the bears got punched in the face. A wild day was anticipated and it occurred in spades.

The algo is tracking UTIL 596.72 and price is only pennies above. The stock rally will stall if UTIL drops under 596.72. Bulls will continue the party if UTIL remains bullish above 596.72 and will receive further upside fuel with higher copper; if JJC moves above 31.84.

For the SPX on Thursday starting at 2100, the bulls need to touch 2107 and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2061 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2062-2106 is sideways action for Thursday. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

Keybot exited SH and entered SPY. The last trade lost less than one percent in both the algo program and the actual trading. The SPX benchmark is up +1.5% this year. The algorithm program is dead flat on the year and actual trading is down -1.5%. Watch utilities and copper.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/18/15; 3:11 PM EST = +67; signal line is +41
3/18/15; 2:13 PM EST = +51; signal line is +39; go long 2090; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.9%)
3/18/15; 2:04 PM EST = +37; signal line is +38
3/18/15; 1:37 PM EST = +23; signal line is +37
3/18/15; 1:25 PM EST = +37; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
3/18/15; 1:13 PM EST = +23; signal line is +36
3/18/15; 1:11 PM EST = +37; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
3/18/15; 11:47 AM EST = +51; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
3/18/15; 11:37 AM EST = +37; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
3/18/15; 10:12 AM EST = +51; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
3/18/15; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 3:11 PM EST = +51; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 2:35 PM EST = +37; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 2:09 PM EST = +51; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 1:04 PM EST = +37; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +23; signal line is +28; go short 2077; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.1%)

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side shortly after the opening bell this morning at SPX 2077. One day is stranger than the next. The bears perform a triple parameter reversal beginning with copper before Monday's closing bell and then both the VIX and NYA fail into the bear camp after the bell. The bulls fight back in the afternoon and Keybot clearly wants to flip back to the long side with the algo number 18 points above t he signal line, however, a timer has prevented the move today. This timer expires shortly after Wednesday's opening bell. If the SPX moves above 2080 tomorrow morning, Keybot will likely flip back to the bull side.

Volatility made several reversals during the Tuesday session with 2% moves occurring in seconds of time. This is very erratic and unstable behavior. The bulls are ready to receive the nod after Wednesday's opening bell unless the bears can send both the VIX above 15.86 and the NYA under 10842.

For the SPX starting at 2074, the bulls need to push above 2080 and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2065 and boom, the stock market will accelerate lower. A move through 2066-2079 is sideways action for Wednesday. Markets are on a wild ride this week and tomorrow will probably continue the excitement. The imminent turn notation is displayed since Keybot will likely flip back to the long side unless the VIX and NYA turn bearish as described.

The algo exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into single ETF's since a  whipsaw occurred with a direction change in less than 10 hours trading time. The robot uses single ETF's for the next 35 days since markets are too erratic and unstable and may be prone to more whipsaw choppy action that has hallmarked the trading year thus far.. The algorithm program and actual trading each log marginal gains on the last trade.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/15; 3:11 PM EST = +51; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 2:35 PM EST = +37; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 2:09 PM EST = +51; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 1:04 PM EST = +37; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +23; signal line is +28; go short 2077; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.1%)
3/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +29
3/17/15; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +28
3/16/15; 2:35 PM EST = +51; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 11:17 AM EST = +67; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 10:30 AM EST = +53; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 10:13 AM EST = +67; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 9:48 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24
3/16/15; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24; go long 2066; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Tuesday session. The bulls need higher copper and JJC above 31.88 but copper is dropping. The bears need either VIX above 15.86 and/or NYA under 10842 to create market selling pressure. If one parameter turns bearish the caution flag will be out if both turn bearish then Keybot will be in the imminent turn mode to flip back to the bear side.

For the SPX starting at 2081, the bulls only need a smidge of positivity and the upside will accelerate but S&P futures are -5. The bears need to push under 2055 to accelerate the downside. The pre-scheduled number prints a short time ago with a one tick increase in the signal line. The bulls are in charge. Watch volatility and the NYA Index.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/15; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +28
3/16/15; 2:35 PM EST = +51; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 11:17 AM EST = +67; signal line is +27

Monday, March 16, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips ot the long side after the opening bell today at SPX 2066. This move was telegraphed from late last Friday and utilities jump higher and volatility lower to create upside juice. In addition, the NYA Index moved above the 10841 level creating more bull fuel. Interestingly, howerver, the VIX is at 15.62 and the bull-bear line is 15.87 so the  move under is not overly convincing. Most importantly, copper is benign today and sitting only a single hair above the 31.88 bull-bear line in the sand printing at 31.89. Thus, bears can stop the upside rally if they push JJC under 31.88 only a couple pennies lower. Bears also need either NYA under 10841 or VIX above 15.87 to also stop the bull party today.

The Keybot algorithm computer program gains a couple percent on the last trade and is now positive on the year up +0.5% and a hair above the benchmark SPX index up +0.3% on the year (call it flat). The actual trading for the year is recovering from the choppy start that had chewed up bulls and bears alike during January-February and is now down -1.6% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the double-leveraged ETF's.

The algo number is 40 points above the signal line so the bulls have strength and are in full control. If either JJC, NYA or VIX turn bearish again, as described above, consider the caution flag to be out and the bears fighting back. For now, the bulls are driving the bus again. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw. Anything can happen in these erratic and unstable markets.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/15; 11:17 AM EST = +67; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 10:30 AM EST = +53; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 10:13 AM EST = +67; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 9:48 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24
3/16/15; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24; go long 2066; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.6%)
3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST = +23; signal line is +24
3/13/15; 2:02 PM EST = +23; signal line is +26
3/13/15; 1:01 PM EST = +7; signal line is +28
3/13/15; 12:25 PM EST = +23; signal line is +31
3/13/15; 10:32 AM EST = +7; signal line is +33
3/13/15; 10:24 AM EST = +21; signal line is +35
3/13/15; 10:12 AM EST = +7; signal line is +37
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is +39
3/13/15; 9:47 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
3/12/15; 3:05 PM EST = +38; signal line is +42
3/12/15; 12:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is +43
3/12/15; 11:23 AM EST = +38; signal line is +44
3/12/15; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +45
3/12/15; 10:15 AM EST = +8; signal line is +48
3/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +48
3/10/15; 11:25 AM EST = -8; signal line is +49
3/10/15; 10:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +51
3/10/15; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +54
3/9/15; 11:05 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56
3/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +56
3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +57
3/6/15; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +58
3/6/15; 3:08 PM EST = +36; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 2:44 PM EST = +22; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 10:42 AM EST = +36; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)

Sunday, March 15, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new week of trading but the algo number is only one point from the signal line. The battle liens are drawn. Flip a coin. The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want to take control. The bulls need UTIL above 574 (only one-point away) and/or VIX under 15.75 to lock in the bull victory moving forward. If either parameter flips into the bull camp, and the SPX touches the 2065 handle, Keybot will likely flip long so tomorrow morning's trade will be interesting.

The bears need to push JJC (copper) under 31.86 and/or XLF (financials) under 24.15 to create selling pressure and send stocks lower. For the SPX starting at 2053, the bulls need to touch the 2065 handle and bingo, it will be a big bull party to begin the week. The bears need to push under 2041 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2042-2052 is sideways action to begin the week. The bears are driving the bus but only hanging on by a thread. The bulls need either higher utilities or lower volatility to take control. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST = +23; signal line is +24
3/13/15; 2:02 PM EST = +23; signal line is +26

Saturday, March 14, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish over the weekend but the bulls are knocking at the door. Copper was pushed higher late Friday sending the stock market higher into the closing bell. The algo printed three numbers in the afternoon and the algo number is now only three points away from the signal line warranting the imminent turn notation. If the bulls boost utilities higher, or volatility lower, either one would do, at Monday's opening bell, and send the SPX to 2065 it is very likely that Keybot will flip long. It appears that the bulls have it on a silver platter to begin a recovery rally.

Bears are going to need weaker banks and copper if they want to keep pushing stocks lower. The areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/15; 2:02 PM EST = +23; signal line is +26
3/13/15; 1:01 PM EST = +7; signal line is +28
3/13/15; 12:25 PM EST = +23; signal line is +31
3/13/15; 10:32 AM EST = +7; signal line is +33

Friday, March 13, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and today is just as wild a trading day as yesterday; a mirror image. Lower utilities and higher volatility carry the day thus far sending stocks lower. The algo prints five numbers so far including the pre-scheduled number. The algo number is 26 points under the signal line so the title line is reduced to a caution status.

Bulls need either UTIL 574 or VIX 15.75 to stop the bleeding. Watch financials. Bears will flush the markets lower into the weekend if XLF drops under 24.15. XLF is currently printing at 24.26 eleven cents away from causing market mayhem.

3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/15; 10:32 AM EST = +7; signal line is +33
3/13/15; 10:24 AM EST = +21; signal line is +35
3/13/15; 10:12 AM EST = +7; signal line is +37
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST = +21; signal line is +39
3/13/15; 9:47 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
3/12/15; 3:05 PM EST = +38; signal line is +42

Thursday, March 12, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Friday session. The bulls stage a big comeback rally on Thursday and the algo was very active printing six numbers. Financials were key and the XLF moved above 24.15 so the fix was in and the bull party began. The algo number is only four points from the signal line so the imminent turn status is in play. The algo is tracking volatility, utilities, copper and the NYA index. The bulls need either JJC (copper) above 31.86 (only pennies away) and/or NYA above 10845 to lock in the upside rally. If either parameter turns bullish, one of the two is good enough, and the SPX moves above 2066 (only a smidge higher), Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

The bears need to push either VIX above 15.75 and/or UTIL below 574 to halt the stock market rally. For the SPX starting at 2066, the bulls only need a smidge higher, to push above 2066.40, and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2041 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2042-2066 is sideways action to end the week. 

Watch copper overnight since any positivity in copper likely points the way to bull victory and the algo likely flipping long. Ditto the S&P futures; any positivity likely points to a bull victory. Bears need to keep copper negative and S&P futures negative overnight. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls have their hands on the steering wheel as well trying to wrestle back control. Tomorrow may be a more interesting day of trading than today's wild day. On Thursday evening, both the S&P futures and copper are a smidge higher although there are many hours before Friday morning's opening bell.

3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/15; 3:05 PM EST = +38; signal line is +42
3/12/15; 12:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is +43
3/12/15; 11:23 AM EST = +38; signal line is +44
3/12/15; 10:16 AM EST = +24; signal line is +45
3/12/15; 10:15 AM EST = +8; signal line is +48
3/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +48
3/10/15; 11:25 AM EST = -8; signal line is +49

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Thursday session. The algorithm did not print any numbers on Wednesday. Financials and utilities are key. Market bears will continue the downside pressure unless either XLF moves above 24.15 or UTIL above 574. The bank stress test results were released Wednesday evening and the XLF is up +0.4% in AH trading which will set the XLF up for a fight at the 24.15 level tomorrow. If stocks rally and the XLF moves above 24.15 a near term bottom is in for stocks. If stocks rally but XLF fails to overtake XLF 24.15, the selling and downward path for stocks should continue.

For the SPX starting at 2040, the bears need any smidge of negativity in the S&P futures overnight and stocks will accelerate lower at the opening bell. The bulls need to push above 2050 to create an upside acceleration that will test the 2055-2057 level in a heartbeat. A move through 2040-2049 is sideways action for Thursday. Watch XLF 24.15 since it provides the market direction answer in the very short term.

3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/10/15; 11:25 AM EST = -8; signal line is +49
3/10/15; 10:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into Wednesday trading. The stock market collapses in the Tuesday session with the algo number now 57 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. A snap-back rally appears on tap for Wednesday with S&P futures up +10 at this writing less than three hours ahead of the opening bell. The bears need weaker semiconductors and retail stocks to gain further downside.

The bulls need higher utilities, copper, and/or financials to stop the bleeding. The US bank stress test results are on tap after the closing bell. Lower volatility will also help the bulls recover. Pay attention to UTIL 574 and VIX 15.78 which will signal that the bulls have created a base in markets. Stocks are set to rally but if these two parameters do not occur, the selling will likely resume.

For the SPX starting at 2044 closing at the lows yesterday, the bears need any smidge of negativity and stocks will accelerate lower, however, futures are strongly higher. The bulls need to retrace yesterday's 35-point drop to regain their mojo. A move through 2045-2075 is sideways action for today. The bears are driving the bus.

3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/10/15; 11:25 AM EST = -8; signal line is +49
3/10/15; 10:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +51
3/10/15; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +54
3/9/15; 11:05 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56

Monday, March 9, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls recover from the Friday drubbing. The algo number is only 4 points below the signal line so the caution flag is out. Bulls need to push UTIL above 574 to signal the all-clear for the rally and likely flip Keybot to the long side. Bears will stop the move higher in stocks with either JJC 31.86, VIX 15.78 and/or NYA 10845.

For the SPX starting at 2079, the bulls need to push above 2083.50 to accelerate the upside. Bears need to push under 2072 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2073-2083 is sideways action.

3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/9/15; 11:05 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56
3/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +56
3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +57

Sunday, March 8, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the new week of trading. The bulls need to push NYA above 10845 and/or UTIL above 573.07 to stop the market selling and mount a substantive recovery rally. If both turn bullish, and the SPX prints above 2101, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need either VIX above 15.80 or XLF under 24.12 to create more selling pressure in stocks.

For the SPX starting at 2071, the bulls need to push above 2101 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2067 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2068-2100 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus to begin the week. If either NYA or UTIL turn bullish consider the caution flag to be in play. If both turn bullish consider an imminent turn back to the long side to be in play. At the opening bell, watch NYA 10845 like a hawk since it will tell you the broad market direction answer. NYA begins at 10842 only three bucks on the bear side. If NYA turns bullish stocks will be buoyant and the bears will be unable to push lower.

3/15/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/15; 10:00 AM EST =
3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +57
3/6/15; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +58

Saturday, March 7, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The algorithm was active today printing five numbers including the pre-scheduled number before the opening bell. The bears are cruising with the algo number 36 points below the signal line, however, in these markets anything can change quickly. The late day weakness was locked in by the NYA losing the 40-week MA at 10845. This is also a cyclical market signal that indicates the stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern. The problem for bears is that NYA is only three measly points below and on Monday morning the bulls can easily save the day and reverse the negativity.

On Monday, the NYA is the most important parameter at the opening bell; utilities, volatility and financials are also important. Levels of interest and Monday's projections can be set up after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. Bulls will need to push the NYA Index higher and utilities higher to save the day. Bears will need higher volatility and weaker financials to continue the market selling.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +58
3/6/15; 3:08 PM EST = +36; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 2:44 PM EST = +22; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 10:42 AM EST = +36; signal line is +59

Friday, March 6, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The pre-scheduled number prints before the opening bell and one number prints after the bell. UTIL fails at 573 so markets flush lower. Bulls need UTIL above 573 or they will remain in trouble. Market bears will receive more fuel with VIX above 15.76 and/or XLF under 24.12 and/or the NYA Index under 10845.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 10:42 AM EST = +36; signal line is +59
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Friday session and today is a photo-copy of yesterday. The algorithm did not print any numbers yesterday. The pre-scheduled number prints in a couple of hours. Market bulls need to push copper higher to begin an upside recovery rally. Watch JJC 32.01 the bull-bear line in the sand. Copper is trading lower this morning. Bears win if JJC stays under 32.01. Bulls win above JJC 32.01.

Bears will receive more downside fuel if VIX moves above 15.76 and/or if XLF drops under 24.11. Bulls receive upside juice with JJC 32.01 and/or UTIL above 596. If JJC or UTIL turn bullish, either one will do, and the SPX moves above 2104, Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

The algorithm identifies UTIL 596 as a key bull-bear level but this expires today and is replaced with UTIL 599.70, thus, a harder upside target for bulls to achieve. The UTIL 599.70 level is in play for every day next week so watch where UTIL closes at this afternoon in relation to 599.70. Another key level is UTIL 573 which will create strong downside selling pressure for stocks if it fails. Consider UTIL 573 to represent a trap-door in the stock market where a potential large flush downward will occur quickly for the stock market if the UTIL 573 fails. UTIL begins at 588.

For the SPX starting at 2101, the bulls need to touch the 2104 handle, only three points higher, and bingo, the upside will accelerate several more handles to 2110. The bears need to push under 2095 to accelerate the downside into the 2080's. A move through 2096-2103 is sideways action but unlikely since the range is tight. Bulls will win above 2103-2104 and bears will win under 2095-2096.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)

Thursday, March 5, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Thursday session. Market bulls need to push copper higher to begin an upside recovery rally. Watch JJC 32.01 the bull-bear line in the sand. Copper is trading higher this morning setting up a big fight at JJC 32.01 today to determine the winner moving forward. Bears win if JJC stays under 32.01. Bulls win above JJC 32.01.

Bears will receive more downside fuel if VIX moves above 15.76 and/or if XLF drops under 24.11. Bulls receive upside juice with JJC 32.01 and/or UTIL above 596. If JJC or UTIL turn bullish, either one will do, and the SPX moves above 2108, Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

For the SPX starting at 2099, the bulls need to touch the 2108 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate several more handles well above 2110. The bears need to push under 2088 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2089-2107 is sideways action.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side moving into the Wednesday trading. The battle is between utilities and copper. Bulls need JJC above 32.00 and/or UTIL above 596 to signal the all-clear and begin a rally move higher in the stock market. Bears will receive more downside energy with either the VIX above 15.75, XLF below 24.15 or UTIL under 573.30. If all the parameters remain status quo, stocks will move sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2108, the bulls need to touch the 2116 handle and bingo, the upside will run strongly higher into the 2120's. The bears need to push under 2098 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2099-2115 is sideways action for Wednesday. So the bulls need an 8-point boost to claim victory and the bears need a 10 point drop to claim victory. S&P futures are -7 at this writing about five hours before the opening bell. Copper is trading slightly lower.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today shortly before lunch at SPX 2104. The weakness in utilities and copper are creating market weakness. Bulls need to push JJC above 32.01 to stop the market selling. Bears need either UTIL under 573 or XLF under 24.15 to create the next leg lower in equities. If UTIL 573 fails, consider that as a trap-door in markets and a large flush lower in stocks will occur in quick order.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program and the actual trading both gain +2.5% on the last trade. The benchmark SPX is up +2.2% this year. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The 35-day single ETF timer expires so the algo is back to the double ETF's again. The bears are driving the bus. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw. Watch JJC 32.01 since it will tell you if markets continue lower or if the bulls can stage a comeback rally. JJC is currently printing 31.75.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/15; 11:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +60; go short 2104; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.8%)
3/3/15; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
3/2/15; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61
3/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +61
2/27/15; 10:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +59
2/27/15; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
2/27/15; 9:48 AM EST = +68; signal line is +56
2/26/15; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +54
2/24/15; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +52
2/23/15; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +51
2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50
2/19/15; 12:22 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50
2/19/15; 12:03 PM EST = +70; signal line is +49
2/19/15; 11:08 AM EST = +54; signal line is +47
2/18/15; 2:17 PM EST = +70; signal line is +45
2/18/15; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +43
2/15/15; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +42
2/13/15; 12:14 PM EST = +54; signal line is +41
2/13/15; 10:32 AM EST = +70; signal line is +40
2/13/15; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +37
2/13/15; 9:40 AM EST = +54; signal line is +36
2/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +35
2/10/15; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +33
2/10/15; 9:35 AM EST = +40; signal line is +32
2/10/15; 9:32 AM EST = +26; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +30
2/8/15; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +29
2/6/15; 12:15 PM EST = +56; signal line is +28
2/6/15; 10:03 AM EST = +70; signal line is +27
2/6/15; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +25
2/5/15; 9:59 AM EST = +56; signal line is +23
2/5/15; 9:49 AM EST = +40; signal line is +23; go long 2055; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -7.3%) [E: 201501260931A]

Monday, March 2, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. The bulls pushed copper higher with JJC up to 32.28 creating the afternoon stock market rally. The bull-bear line in the sand is JJC 32.01. UTIL is under the 596 level in play all this week so that creates market negativity. The algo is now tracking UTIL 573.33 as another bull-bear level of import. UTIL is at 583.20. Thus, bulls need UTIL above 596 and/or GTX above 3390 to receive upside fuel. Both of these appear difficult so the stock market upside may be limited.

Bears need to push UTIL under 573.33 and/or JJC under 32.01 to take control of equities. If either UTIL drops under 573.33 or JJC under 32.01, either one will do, and the SPX drops under 2105, Keybot will likely flip short. If either of these two parameters turn bearish consider the imminent turn notation to be in play. If UTIL stays above 573, and JJC above 32.01, status quo, equities will float sideways to sideways higher.

For the SPX starting at 2117, the bulls need less than one point higher to accelerate a move several handles higher so watch to see if the S&P futures are positive overnight which will point the way to bull victory on Tuesday. The bears need to push under 2105 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2106-2116 is sideways action.

3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/2/15; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls throw a euphoric party with the Nasdaq hitting 5000 not seen in 15 years. Treasury rates jump higher so utilities are in complete collapse. UTIL tumbles to 579 which is an ominous signal for markets for the weeks ahead. Copper remains buoyant so the bulls are able to print new highs in stocks. JJC is at 32.13 remaining above the 32.00 bull-bear line in the sand identified by the algorithm albeit by 13 pennies.

Watch copper like a hawk; it is running the show today and the major influence on stock market direction. If JJC drops under 32, markets will begin selling off. If JJC loses 32, and the SPX drops under 2104, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short. Hence, the caution appears in the title line. If JJC loses 32 consider the imminent turn status to be in play. So despite the euphoric equity highs, the market metrics are shaky. If copper moves strongly higher the bulls will be creating further new highs in equities.


The SPX is battling at the 2113-2114 area trying to create an upside acceleration but cannot yet push up through; the bears are maintaining this level as a resistance ceiling. JJC 32.00 determines the market directional answer. JJC is currently printing at 32.19 so the bulls are now 19 cents on the good side. Bears need to push copper lower or they got nothing.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/2/15; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61
3/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +61

February Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and Word Economics 2015-02 Available from Amazon

The February publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2015-02 is available through Amazon (AMZN). February is another wild month for markets. Stocks were trading choppy sideways chewing up bulls and bears but the bulls win out in February catapulting markets higher on the Ukraine ceasefire, Greece bailout and central banker happy talk. Deflation remains rampant in Europe. Global stock indexes are printing record highs with bond yields at record lows. One-third of Europeans bonds are trading negatively!

The West Coast dock slowdown created angst. Chinese rings in the lunar New Year; the "Year of the Sheeple." Net neutrality is approved changing the internet forever; the government steps in to fix problems that do not exist. The Holy War waged by ISIS Islamist radicals against Christians and Jews continues. Social unrest and wars continue around the world. Ukraine fighting is ongoing despite the ceasefire. ISIS Islamist radicals are performing genocide against Christians and Jews while the world looks on.

The chronology records economic history in real time preventing revisionist tampering in future years. Many of the same asset managers telling everyone to go long the market in 2008 are repeating the same mantra these days. Their quotes and words are recorded. Perhaps they are correct with their market cheer leading; perhaps they are not.  If a multi-year top prints during the weeks ahead, the chronology serves as the most accurate accounting of the market topping process. The chronology is the most reliable and easy to understand source on the web or in hard print explaining global markets.

As always, all monthly publications are available from the links in the left margin. We are living through historic stock market and economic times. The daily chronology is the most accurate accounting on how a potential epic stock market top forms in real-time. The detailed chronology prevents the writing of revisionist history in the future.The monthly publications are compatible with most electronic devices and include an extensive Business Acronym List and Ticker Symbol List. The Acronym List is the most comprehensive list available on the internet. The chronology is not available in hard copy and only distributed around the world electronically.

Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics February 2015-02

Sunday, March 1, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. UTIL begins at 594.17 below the important 596 level that is in play for every day this week. This will provide the bears an edge but if UTIL jumps higher at the opening bell above 596 the fix is in and the bulls are going to run stocks higher.

JJC begins at 32.19 above the important 31.98 bull-bear level identified by the algo. This creates market lift and the strength in copper last week prevented equities from moving lower. Watch copper overnight into Monday for an early tell on market direction. If copper is weak the bears are in good shape especially with UTIL under 596. If copper is trading higher overnight, JJC will move higher and the bears will be slapped in the face.

For the SPX starting at 2104.50, the bulls need to push 8 points higher, above 2112.50 and bingo, the upside will accelerate into a big bull party. The market bears have an easier path only needing to push under the 2104 level, less than one point lower, and boom, the SPX will accelerate lower likely in concert with falling utilities and copper. A move through 2104-2112 is sideways action to begin the week. The bulls continue to have the wind at their backs with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. The graphical printout for the algorithm is at its heart an oscillator (a chart that moves above and below a mid-point similar to RSI and MACD indicators on stock charts) so the +84 number above the 80 level indicates an overbot condition.

3/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +61
2/27/15; 10:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +59