Tuesday, March 17, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side shortly after the opening bell this morning at SPX 2077. One day is stranger than the next. The bears perform a triple parameter reversal beginning with copper before Monday's closing bell and then both the VIX and NYA fail into the bear camp after the bell. The bulls fight back in the afternoon and Keybot clearly wants to flip back to the long side with the algo number 18 points above t he signal line, however, a timer has prevented the move today. This timer expires shortly after Wednesday's opening bell. If the SPX moves above 2080 tomorrow morning, Keybot will likely flip back to the bull side.

Volatility made several reversals during the Tuesday session with 2% moves occurring in seconds of time. This is very erratic and unstable behavior. The bulls are ready to receive the nod after Wednesday's opening bell unless the bears can send both the VIX above 15.86 and the NYA under 10842.

For the SPX starting at 2074, the bulls need to push above 2080 and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2065 and boom, the stock market will accelerate lower. A move through 2066-2079 is sideways action for Wednesday. Markets are on a wild ride this week and tomorrow will probably continue the excitement. The imminent turn notation is displayed since Keybot will likely flip back to the long side unless the VIX and NYA turn bearish as described.

The algo exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into single ETF's since a  whipsaw occurred with a direction change in less than 10 hours trading time. The robot uses single ETF's for the next 35 days since markets are too erratic and unstable and may be prone to more whipsaw choppy action that has hallmarked the trading year thus far.. The algorithm program and actual trading each log marginal gains on the last trade.

3/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/15; 3:11 PM EST = +51; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 2:35 PM EST = +37; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 2:09 PM EST = +51; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 1:04 PM EST = +37; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +23; signal line is +28; go short 2077; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.1%)
3/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +29
3/17/15; 9:00 AM EST = +51; signal line is +28
3/16/15; 2:35 PM EST = +51; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 11:17 AM EST = +67; signal line is +27
3/16/15; 10:30 AM EST = +53; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 10:13 AM EST = +67; signal line is +25
3/16/15; 9:48 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24
3/16/15; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24; go long 2066; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.6%)

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