Monday, April 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 2096 after this morning's open. The financials, semiconductors and retail stocks flip bullish causing the algo to flip back long creating a whipsaw. Copper weakened during the stock market up day. Note that the algo number is only 3 points from the signal line so Keybot may flip back to the short side tomorrow.

Bulls need either JJC above 32.60 (now only one penny under) or GTX above 3214 to continue the upside party. Bears need either RTH under 76.08, XLF under 24.17 or SOX under 700 to stop the upside market rally, any one will do. If one of the three turns bearish and the SPX drops under 2084, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 2100, the bulls need to touch the 2104 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2084 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2085-2103 is sideways action for Tuesday.

For the last trade only one day in duration, the algo lost -0.5% on both the computer program and the actual trading. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY. The algo will remain in the single ETF's until at least 5/26/15 due to the whipsaws and continued sideways choppy market action. Watch copper closely; bulls are happy with higher copper and bears are happy with lower copper.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/20/15; 2:07 PM EST = +54; signal line is +51
4/20/15; 12:52 PM EST = +70; signal line is +51
4/20/15; 12:42 PM EST = +54; signal line is +49
4/20/15; 11:04 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
4/20/15; 10:15 AM EST = +54; signal line is +48
4/20/15; 9:38 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2096; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.0%)
4/20/15; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
4/19/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +46
4/17/15; 11:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:56 AM EST = +36; signal line is +48
4/17/15; 10:41 AM EST = +52; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 10:25 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:56 AM EST = +50; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45; go short 2086; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.5%)

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