Saturday, May 16, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side the last couple days joining the bull party first thing Thursday morning at SPX 2110. As per the last post, semiconductors led the way exploding higher at Thursday's opening bell so you knew up was the direction forward. On Friday, higher utility and retail stocks create further upside fuel. The SPX benchmark is up a couple percent this year continuing the sideways choppy action. Keybot exits PSQ and enters DIA. The algorithm program lost -0.7% on the last trade and the actual trading lost -1.0%.

The algo number is +81 showing the bulls in firm control but the move above 80 creates an overbot condition in the stock market. It is likely prudent to bring on index shorts here forward shorting any further bounces but Keybot will motor along and only reverse to the short side if the 1's and 0's dictate. Remember, Keybot is not designed to catch exact tops and bottoms but instead chart the smoothest path through the year maximizing returns with minimal risk. The +81, however, should alert you that markets are toppy.

For next week, focus on retail and utility stocks; the key values the algo are tracking currently are RTH 76.38 and UTIL 582.60. If one of these turn bearish consider the imminent turn to be in play and if both turn bearish then Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

5/17/15; 7:00 PM EST =
5/15/15; 2:39 PM EST = +81; signal line is +54
5/15/15; 11:40 AM EST = +65; signal line is +52
5/15/15; 11:13 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
5/15/15; 10:23 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51
5/15/15; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
5/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +49; go long 2110; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.6%)
5/13/15; 3:36 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
5/13/15; 2:39 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 2:23 PM EST = +33; signal line is +48
5/13/15; 1:08 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 11:06 AM EST = +33; signal line is +48
5/13/15; 10:04 AM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 9:37 AM EST = +65; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/12/15; 3:58 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
5/12/15; 12:35 PM EST = +49; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 10:57 AM EST = +33; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 10:46 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 9:30 AM EST = +33; signal line is +50; go short 2096; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2015 = -2.6%)

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