Thursday, April 6, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side after taking a wild ride the last couple days first flipping long, then whipsawing back to the short side, both occurring on Wednesday, then back to the long side this afternoon. Market bears need lower copper and retail stocks. Bulls need higher banks and commodities and lower volatility to keep the rally alive. The Jobs Report is tomorrow morning. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

The whipsaw behavior in the stock market reflects the ongoing bull-bear battle and indecision and the model may flip back to the short side tomorrow. Markets are very unstable and erratic.

Two significant events occur over the last two days. First, a whipsaw move occurs in the same day (Wednesday) which is very rare for the algo this only occurring a couple times before over the last nine years. Second, the algo prints a maximum +100 number which is extremely rare. Remember the +100 prints a few weeks ago which hints that there is something very significant occurring in the stock market. The +100 number only lasted for 26 minutes on Wednesday.

Three quick trades occur over the last couple days. The benchmark SPX index remains up +5.5% this year. The Keybot program is up a percent on the year but the actual trading remains negative down about -3% thus far this year. The whipsaw behavior triggers the algo to use single ETF's for the actual trading rather than double-leveraged ETF's. This will remain in place for about 35 days. The robot is in SPY currently.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =
4/6/17; 2:52 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
4/6/17; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2363; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.7%)
4/6/17; 12:49 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
4/6/17; 12:11 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55
4/6/17; 12:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
4/6/17; 11:41 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56
4/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +58
4/5/17; 3:54 PM EST = +40; signal line is +58
4/5/17; 3:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +60; go short 2357; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.3%)
4/5/17; 10:37 AM EST = +70; signal line is +61
4/5/17; 10:33 AM EST = +86; signal line is +61
4/5/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +61
4/5/17; 9:57 AM EST = +86; signal line is +60
4/5/17; 9:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +60; go long 2369; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.1%)
4/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short
4/4/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60
4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +40; signal line is +61
3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62
3/31/17; 2:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +63
3/31/17; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is +64; go short 2367; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.9%)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.