Monday, January 1, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is in the bear camp to begin the new year. The market sogginess is caused by higher volatility and lower chips and utilities. For the first trading week of the year, the bull-bear lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction are UTIL 719.63, UTIL 726.63, VIX 10.43 and SOX 1255.55. US markets are closed today for New Year's but resume trading Tuesday morning.

The market bears have the downside on a silver platter; if they want it. UTIL begins the week at 723.37 and if price drops below 719.63, the stock market will likely go into a mini free fall.

The market bulls need UTIL above 726.63 to prove that stocks will continue rallying higher. The bulls also need SOX above 1255.55 (now at 1253.05) and VIX below 10.43 (now at 11.04) which will create stock market strength.

The stock market will remain weak if SOX stays below 1255.55 and VIX above 10.43. One thing you can watch is the VIX 200-day MA at 10.96. This will be an immediate tell on stock market direction. If the VIX remains above 10.96, the stock market is going to trend lower. If the VIX slips below 10.96, the bulls are fighting back and will keep the stock market buoyant and elevated.

If either UTIL moves above 726.63, or SOX above 1255.55 or VIX below 10.43, any one will do, consider the imminent turn to the upside in play. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 2692, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. On Tuesday (tomorrow), we will see what the bears got. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is zeroed for the new year. Last year was disappointing with the algo model up +2.1% and the actual trading up +1.3%. The benchmark S&P 500 jumped +19.4% last year. The trades in 2017 are listed below. The algo flipped 36 times in 2017 as compared to only 26 times in 2016 which verifies the choppy whipsaw action. The sawtooth price action in the stock indexes and low volatility wreaks havoc on the algorithms. The S&P 500 begins 2018 at 2674. The beat goes on.

1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
1/1/18; Begin 2018 Data Set = +54; signal line is +78; go short 2674; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2018 = 0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2018 on the Short Side from SPX 2674. All Data 0%. Begin 2018.

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START 2018 PROGRAM

Begin Printing

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/18; 3:11 AM EST

START 2018 PROGRAM

Copyright Enforced. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. Keybot the Quant. The Keystone Speculator. K E Stone. All Rights Reserved.

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

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END OF 2017 RESULTS:

SPX Benchmark Final 2017:  +19.4% Gain (SPX Started at 2239 and Ended at 2674)

Keybot the Quant Actual Trading +1.3% Underperforms SPX Benchmark

Keybot the Quant has never printed a negative year

Keybot the Quant is a long-short algorithm that oscillates between a bullish (long) position and a bearish (short) position seeking the smoothest path through the trading year

Number of Position Changes (Long to Short or Short to Long) During 2017:  36
Number of Broker Commissions Required During 2017:  72

Benchmark SPX During 2017:  +19.4% Gain

Keybot the Quant Algorithm (Computer Program Only) During 2017: +2.1%

Keybot the Quant Actual Trading Return for 2017 Including All Commissions, Costs and Fees:  +1.3% Return


1/1/2017
2239
Cover short
3:59 AM
SDS
15.11
1/1/2017
2239
Go Short
3:59 AM
SDS
15.11
1/6/2017
2280
Cover short
12:33 PM
SDS
14.57
1/6/2017
2280
Go long
12:33 PM
SSO
78.86
1/23/2017
2263
Sell Long
10:32 AM
SSO
77.61
1/23/2017
2263
Go Short
10:32 AM
TWM
24.07
1/24/2017
2272
Cover short
11:40 AM
TWM
23.69
1/24/2017
2272
Go long
11:40 AM
SPY
226.82
1/30/2017
2282
Sell Long
9:35 AM
SPY
227.87
1/30/2017
2282
Go Short
9:35 AM
SH
35.85
2/9/2017
2293
Cover short
11:15 AM
SH
35.66
2/9/2017
2293
Go long
11:15 AM
SPY
229.10
3/3/2017
2379
Sell Long
9:59 AM
SPY
238.09
3/3/2017
2379
Go Short
9:59 AM
SDS
13.30
3/28/2017
2361
Cover short
3:57 PM
SDS
13.49
3/28/2017
2361
Go long
3:57 PM
SSO
84.63
3/31/2017
2367
Sell Long
10:17 AM
SSO
85.10
3/31/2017
2367
Go Short
10:17 AM
SDS
13.41
4/5/2017
2369
Cover short
9:43 AM
SDS
13.38
4/5/2017
2369
Go long
9:43 AM
SSO
85.37
4/5/2017
2357
Sell Long
3:28 PM
SSO
84.38
4/5/2017
2357
Go Short
3:28 PM
SH
34.62
4/6/2017
2363
Cover short
1:29 PM
SH
34.48
4/6/2017
2363
Go long
1:29 PM
SPY
235.84
4/7/2017
2358
Sell Long
10:36 AM
SPY
235.46
4/7/2017
2358
Go Short
10:36 AM
PSQ
42.33
4/24/2017
2376
Cover short
3:07 PM
PSQ
41.63
4/24/2017
2376
Go long
3:07 PM
DIA
207.50
5/17/2017
2376
Sell Long
9:57 AM
DIA
208.00
5/17/2017
2376
Go Short
9:57 AM
SDS
13.20
5/22/2017
2390
Cover short
9:38 AM
SDS
13.08
5/22/2017
2390
Go long
9:38 AM
SSO
86.91
6/20/2017
2442
Sell Long
12:28 PM
SSO
90.89
6/20/2017
2442
Go Short
12:28 PM
SDS
12.49
7/10/2017
2425
Cover short
9:36 AM
SDS
12.65
7/10/2017
2425
Go long
9:36 AM
SSO
89.61
8/10/2017
2455
Sell Long
10:05 AM
SSO
91.89
8/10/2017
2455
Go Short
10:05 AM
SDS
49.31
8/18/2017
2433
Cover short
12:17 PM
SDS
50.12
8/18/2017
2433
Go long
12:17 PM
SSO
90.27
8/21/2017
2426
Sell Long
9:36 AM
SSO
89.76
8/21/2017
2426
Go Short
9:36 AM
SH
33.41
8/22/2017
2452
Cover short
3:59 PM
SH
33.05
8/22/2017
2452
Go long
3:59 PM
SPY
245.33
8/29/2017
2434
Sell Long
9:44 AM
SPY
243.64
8/29/2017
2434
Go Short
9:44 AM
PSQ
39.25
8/30/2017
2452
Cover short
10:49 AM
PSQ
38.70
8/30/2017
2452
Go long
10:49 AM
DIA
218.77
9/5/2017
2469
Sell Long
9:36 AM
DIA
219.12
9/5/2017
2469
Go Short
9:36 AM
DOG
16.90
9/11/2017
2484
Cover short
11:42 AM
DOG
16.83
9/11/2017
2484
Go long
11:42 AM
IWM
140.61
9/25/2017
2494
Sell Long
10:54 AM
IWM
144.33
9/25/2017
2494
Go Short
10:54 AM
SH
32.47
9/29/2017
2511
Cover short
9:33 AM
SH
32.26
9/29/2017
2511
Go long
9:33 AM
SPY
250.42
10/19/2017
2549
Sell Long
9:52 AM
SPY
254.56
10/19/2017
2549
Go Short
9:52 AM
SDS
45.49
10/20/2017
2572
Cover short
12:23 PM
SDS
44.74
10/20/2017
2572
Go long
12:23 PM
SPY
256.70
10/25/2017
2565
Sell Long
9:49 AM
SPY
256.14
10/25/2017
2565
Go Short
9:49 AM
PSQ
37.50
10/27/2017
2576
Cover short
11:09 AM
PSQ
36.97
10/27/2017
2576
Go long
11:09 AM
DIA
233.95
11/14/2017
2568
Sell Long
10:04 AM
DIA
233.45
11/14/2017
2568
Go Short
10:04 AM
SH
31.49
11/16/2017
2589
Cover short
2:05 PM
SH
31.24
11/16/2017
2589
Go long
2:05 PM
IWM
148.16
12/5/2017
2636
Sell Long
2:23 PM
IWM
149.90
12/5/2017
2636
Go Short
2:23 PM
SDS
42.35
12/15/2017
2668
Cover short
10:16 AM
SDS
41.40
12/15/2017
2668
Go long
10:16 AM
SSO
108.79
12/29/2017
2678
Sell Long
3:56 PM
SSO
109.49
12/29/2017
2678
Go Short
3:56 PM
TWM
17.43
1/1/2018
2674
Cover short
3:00 AM
TWM
17.46
1/1/2018
2674
Go short
3:00 AM
TWM
17.46


Date – SPX – Position – Date Stamp – ETF – Price

Begin Printing Trade Data Entries Exits Reverse Order

FINAL 2017

Mark and Set

Date Stamp 1/1/18; 3:04 AM EST

End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End – End

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1/1/18; Algorithm Zeroed for 2018 Data = +54; signal line is +78; go short 2674; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 Final = +19.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 Final = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 Final = +1.3%)
12/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2017 = +54; signal line is +78

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