STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as trading for the month of October begins. The EOM and EOQ3 for trading ended on Friday. Monday is the first day of Q4.

The SOX came up to poke at the 1370 level, that Keybot called out ahead of time, and failed. Isn't it astounding that Keybot can perform such a feat? That guaranteed soggy stocks to finish the week and US equities were flat on the day. If SOX would have taken out 1370, the stock indexes would have jumped strongly higher. Watch the semi's.

Weak chips and banks are causing market weakness while stronger utilities and copper, and lower volatility, are creating market lift.

Bears need UTIL under 711, JJCTF under 30.34 and/or VIX above 12.97.  Bulls need SOX above 1370 and/or XLF above 28.05. These five parameters are steering the stock market ship to begin the new week ahead. If the bulls flip either the semiconductors or banks bullish, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2921, Keybot may flip long.

Watch SOX 1370 (now at 1367) at the opening bell on Monday morning since it will immediately dictate the broad stock market direction. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =

10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +68; signal line is +73

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algo remains active. The algo number is 5 points below the signal line with the bears in control. The bulls jammed the utilities higher which creates buoyancy in the broad stock market. Financials remain weak. Chips remain weak but the bulls are jamming the semi's higher hoping to gather more upside juice. Volatility remains bullish but was helping the bears a few hours ago.

Bears need VIX above 12.97 and/or UTIL below 710.80 to create stock market mayhem.

Bulls need XLF above 28.06 and/or SOX above 1370 to guarantee an upside path for the stock market ahead. If either the banks or chips turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 2927, Keybot may flip long.

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73

9/28/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73

9/28/18; 8:40 AM EST = +52; signal line is +73

9/28/18; 6:50 AM EST = +38; signal line is +74

9/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +75

9/27/18; 1:12 PM EST = +68; signal line is +76

9/27/18; 12:42 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains short

9/27/18; 12:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +77

9/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77; go short 2908; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side at SPX 2908 late Wednesday. The utilities failed creating a weak day. Chips remain weak. Late in the hump day session, the banks failed.

The bears need the VIX above 12.98 (now trading at 12.50) to create stock market carnage. Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper and commodities.

The bulls need XLF above 28.06 (now at 27.97) pronto. Bulls also need UTIL above 710.80 (now at 704) and SOX above 1370 (now at 1352). Bulls need stronger banks, utilities and chips.

On the last trade, the changes were flat. Keybot had went long at SPX 2907 the other day and now goes short at the same level at 2908. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77; go short 2908; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)

9/26/18; 3:44 PM EST = +52; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long

9/26/18; 10:26 AM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

9/25/18; 1:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +79
9/25/18; 12:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78

9/25/18; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +78

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76

9/20/18; 11:41 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75

9/19/18; 1:45 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73

9/19/18; 1:27 PM EST = +68; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long

9/19/18; 12:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +72

9/19/18; 12:43 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

9/19/18; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71

9/19/18; 10:42 AM EST = +100; signal line is +71; go long 2907; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears continue battling. Utilities failed today at lunchtime so the door was wide open for the bears but they did not have the strength to follow through. The algo number fell below the signal line but the internal parameters would not completely latch to permit Keybot to flip to the short side.

Bears need UTIL under 710.80 (now at 712) to create stock market negativity. If UTIL falls below 711 and remains below, this spells serious trouble for the stock market over the intermediate term (weeks and months ahead). In the very near term, any day, if the UTIL 711 fails, remain alert for a sharp flush lower in the S&P 500. UTIL failed today at 711 but then recovered before any carnage could occur.

Bears also need VIX above 12.97 (now at 12.42). If either UTIL goes sub 711, or VIX pops above 12.97, either one would do, and the SPX drops under 2914, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need strong chips. Bulls need SOX above 1370.50 (now at 1365) pronto. The semiconductors are the only thing that can pull the bulls out of the quagmire. Bears need weaker chips, weaker utes and higher volatility. These three parameters currently dictate stock market direction.

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/25/18; 1:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +79

9/25/18; 12:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday but prints the pre-scheduled number and one other this morning. The algo comes off of the epic +100 number now only 6 points above the signal line. The chips turn weak over the last few minutes creating the slight negativity. Watch SOX 1370.25 since this will tell you if the stock market will go up or down today. For now, the SOX is at 1369 and change, a hair on the bear side, creating market negativity.

Bears will also benefit from VIX above 12.97 and/or UTIL below 710.89. Watch UTIL closely since a failure at 711 will forecast sustained trouble for the US stock market going forward. If either VIX or UTIL turns bearish, and the SPX is under 2913, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Watch those chips.

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78

9/25/18; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +78

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with the algorithm pegged at the historic and epic maximum +100 level. Copper exploded +10% higher last week sending stocks to new all-time record highs. The Dow Jones Industrials, INDU or DJI, overtake the January record highs. It is remarkable to see a +100 print since once stocks eventually roll over, another +100 may not appear for many years.

The bulls are in control. Market bears will need weaker copper (JJCTF below 30.16) and higher volatility (VIX above 13.00) to create negativity.  Weaker chips (SOX below 1369) and weaker utilities (UTIL under 711.23) will also create stock market negativity. If any of the four parameters turn bearish, consider the caution flag out. If two turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX is below 2927 and dropping, Keybot may flip short.

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning the other Friday morning. The last day of trading for September is Friday (EOM and EOQ3).

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/25/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76

9/20/18; 11:41 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long printing one number today again achieving the +100 level the highest possible number for the algorithm. It is historic. The stock market is receiving all systems go from its root parameters. The S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials print new all-time record highs.

Copper jumps into the bull camp creating stock market joy. Bears need JJCTF below 30.06 pronto to stop the upside in equities. SOX below 1368 and/or VIX above 13.00 would also help the bears. For now, the bulls rule the stock market with a +100 orgy party.

The bears likely need 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish to flip Keybot to the short side. Watch copper, chips and volatility.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/20/18; 11:41 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75

9/19/18; 1:45 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today as the algorithm tags +100 the highest number possible for the oscillator. It completely pegged to the maximum possible number and that triggers Keybot to finally flip long at SPX 2907. The stock market is a coin-flip right now, perhaps traders are biding their time ahead of the big Wednesday, 9/26/18, Fed rate hike next week that is a done deal? Watch out for a potential whipsaw.

The bulls pulled copper into their camp to print the +100 algo number but that only lasted for an hour and the bears pull copper back into their camp. The chips are in the bull camp.

The Thursday battle is copper versus semiconductors. The bulls need JJCTF above 30.06 and stocks will experience an orgy of upside joy with new record highs on tap. Bears need to push SOX below 1367.44, and the stock market will become ill and deteriorate lower. If the VIX then moves above 13.00, the stock market will fall apart.

Generally, if SOX turns bearish and the SPX drops below 2904, Keybot may be getting ready to whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade, Keybot exits TWM and enters SSO. The algo program loses -0.7% since the direction was short but the stock market generally headed higher. However, the small caps did drift lower so TWM (2x invert ETF) was a +1.8% winner nonetheless. Sometimes the ETF selection helps and sometimes it can hurt. Keybot strives to typically play the SSO (2x), SDS (-2x), SPY (1x) and SH (-1x) derivatives of the S&P 500. The actual trading is up almost +15% this year thus far. 

JJCTF 30.06 and SOX 1367.44 tell the market direction story. They will join together on one side or the other and dictate the direction of the stock market ahead. Copper and chips. You can check copper futures overnight to see how they are trading.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/19/18; 1:45 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73

9/19/18; 1:27 PM EST = +68; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long

9/19/18; 12:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +72

9/19/18; 12:43 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

9/19/18; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71

9/19/18; 10:42 AM EST = +100; signal line is +71; go long 2907; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.7%)
9/19/18; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short

9/18/18; 10:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short

9/18/18; 10:16 AM EST = +70; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short

9/18/18; 10:07 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67

9/18/18; 9:07 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short

9/17/18; 3:12 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68

9/17/18; 3:03 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short

9/17/18; 2:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short

9/17/18; 1:20 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

9/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 3:11 PM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 11:17 AM EST = +84; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/12/18; 3:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short

9/12/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61

9/12/18; 11:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short

9/12/18; 10:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +62

9/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +68; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

9/12/18; 6:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63

9/12/18; 3:45 AM EST = +68; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64

9/11/18; 10:55 AM EST = +70; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 10:19 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66

9/11/18; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 9:53 AM EST = +56; signal line is +67

9/11/18; 9:47 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 9:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
9/10/18; 10:38 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short

9/10/18; 10:09 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69

9/10/18; 9:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short

9/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +71

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +71

9/7/18; 1:10 PM EST = +40; signal line is +72

9/7/18; 1:01 PM EST = +56; signal line is +73

9/7/18; 12:30 PM EST = +40; signal line is +73

9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74
9/6/18; 11:16 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74

9/5/18; 3:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75

9/4/18; 3:59 PM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short

9/4/18; 9:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74; go short 2888; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +12.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the chips and high volatility jump back into the bear camp. The algo prints four numbers to begin the week and the algo is back under the signal line by 14 points. Chips, volatility and banks dictate the path ahead for the stock market.

Bears need XLF under 28.02 (now at 28.11) and stocks will take a significant leg lower.

Bulls need either SOX above 1367 (now at 1357.48) and/or VIX below 13.03 (now at 13.68).  If one of the two turn bullish, the turn to the long side is firmly on the table. If both turn bullish, the stock market will be ramping higher towards new all-time highs. If either SOX or VIX turns bullish, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2905, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

Bears need weaker banks while bulls need stronger chips and lower volatility. Watch XLF 28.02 since that likely tells you if the stock market plans on collapsing, or not. The odd price action continues.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/18; 9:00 AM EST =

9/17/18; 3:12 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68

9/17/18; 3:03 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short

9/17/18; 2:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short

9/17/18; 1:20 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the strange price action continues. It has been a long time since the algo has wanted to go long tick after tick but is held back by the internal parameters not fully latching. In a nutshell, SPX price needs to move up into the 2908-2914 range and higher to prove that the upside is real and flip Keybot to the long side. The turn appears imminent. The algo number is 20 big points above the signal line so the bulls have the strength available but it is odd that the S&P 500 price continues stalling.

The bulls receive juice from the recovery in the semiconductors. Banks also rallied on Friday providing stock market joy. The bears cling on to weak copper as the major drag on the stock market. Bulls need stronger copper. Bears need lower chips, banks and commodities and higher volatility.

The bulls should be able to move the stock market higher with the chips in their camp. The bears need SOX below 1365.25 and VIX above 13.15. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Wednesday morning.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/18; 9:00 AM EST =

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

9/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 3:11 PM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the bull party in the stock market. The algo number is 7 points above the signal line with Keybot champing at the bit to flip long but the internal parameters are not fully latched as yet to permit the move. It is fascinating market price action.

As of the end of day hump day, Keybot wants to go long so all the bulls had to do on Thursday morning was to move the S&P 500 slowly higher. Instead, whammo, the bulls jammed stocks skyward with a gap-up move. This triggers a gap-up timer which prevents the move to the long side. It provides time for the markets to settle and stabilize. Once that timer expired, the SPX was unable to take out the HOD at 2906.76 which is one of the many parameters it needed to latch.

Thus, the bulls still have it on a silver platter if they want it. If the SPX moves above 2907 (begins at 2904.18) on Friday morning, only 3 points higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The bulls can receive upside juice if they push the SOX above 1365.20 (now at 1362).

The bears need to keep the chips in their camp while they push the XLF below 27.99 (now at 28.03) and/or VIX above 13.16 (now at 12.37). The XLF collapsed in the Thursday trade to 27.99 but bounced. If that would have failed, the stock market would have likely crumbled. It is amazing that Keybot can identify these key parameters before they happen.

So the bulls need SPX 2907 and SOX 1365.20 and it will be one big upside party with Keybot likely flipping long. The bears need banks to fail and the stock market will be in big trouble. If volatility then spikes, stocks will drop like a rock. The bears will likely need at least the XLF or VIX to turn bearish on Friday.

Focus on SPX 2907 and XLF 27.99 since they will tell the story when the opening bell rings. Also, monitor the futures. If the S&P's are +3 or higher, that will hint that the bulls are going to rock and roll. Otherwise, the bears may stay in control. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/13/18; 3:11 PM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 11:17 AM EST = +84; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short

9/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/13/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/12/18; 3:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short

9/12/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61

9/12/18; 11:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short

9/12/18; 10:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +62

9/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +68; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short

9/12/18; 6:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63

9/12/18; 3:45 AM EST = +68; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. The algo was very active in the Tuesday trade printing seven numbers and is off to an early start on hump day. Interestingly, the SPX sits at 2888 exactly where Keybot went short on Tuesday, 9/4/18. The bulls and bears remain in a tug-o-war for stock market directional control.

Volatility is the key. Bears need the VIX above 13.16 while bulls need the VIX below 13.16. Wednesday begins with the VIX at 13.02 the bulls are jamming volatility lower which provides lift in the US futures. If the SPX moves above 2893, about 5 points higher than Tuesday's closing price for the regular session, Keybot will likely flip long. S&P futures are up.....wait for it..... wait a little bit longer for it....+5 (2888+5=2893). So the bulls are making a run higher in the S&P futures trying to regain stock market control when the opening bell rings for the regular session in about five hours.

Bears must push VIX above 13.16 as quick as possible or they will go down in flames today. The VIX 13.16 level dictates the direction forward for equities. Chips are also key. Watch SOX 1365.40 (now at 1361.89). Bulls will be throwing confetti watching stocks run strongly higher if the SOX moves above 1365.40. Bears must keep the chips below SOX 1365.40.

Thus, the battleground for hump day is volatility and semiconductors. As this message is typed, the VIX slips below 13 to 12.97. S&P +5. The beat goes on.

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/12/18; 3:45 AM EST = +68; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64

9/11/18; 10:55 AM EST = +70; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 10:19 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66

9/11/18; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 9:53 AM EST = +56; signal line is +67

9/11/18; 9:47 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short

9/11/18; 9:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
9/10/18; 10:38 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The bulls and bears are in a tug-o-war struggle for stock market directional control as evidenced by the algo number 1 point above the signal line. Keybot wants to go long but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move.

To keep things simple and give you something to follow, if the SPX moves above 2887 on Tuesday, Keybot will likely flip long. The bulls are creating the strength in the stock market with stronger commodities and chips. Bulls will be throwing confetti and driving the market higher if they can push the VIX below 13.19 (now at 14.16).

The bears need to push SOX under 1366.55 (now at 1375.74) and/or GTX under 2710 (now at 2716.50) to create stock market negativity. Thus, the bulls need SPX above 2887 and lower volatility. Bears need weaker chips and commodities.

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/10/18; 10:38 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short

9/10/18; 10:09 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69

9/10/18; 9:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short

9/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +71

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +71

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short heading into the new week of trading. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 31 points below the signal line. Bears need weaker banks and a weaker NYA Index to extend the stock market losses.

The bulls need SOX above 1366.25 (now at 1360.77), GTX above 2709.85 (now at 2707.50) and/or VIX below 13.24 (now at 14.88). If one of the three parameters turn bullish, the caution flag will be out. If two of the three turn bullish, the imminent turn will be in play and if this occurs with the SPX moving above 2884, Keybot may flip back to the long side.

So the bears need weaker banks while the bulls need stronger chips and commodities and lower volatility. The VIX 14.69 level will dictate stock market direction. Bears will win ever day forward if the VIX remains above 14.69. The bulls will be pushing back if the VIX slips below 14.69. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST =

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +71

9/7/18; 1:10 PM EST = +40; signal line is +72

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The stock market bears are cruising with the algo number 32 points below the signal line. The semiconductors join the bear camp and create weakness in the broad stock market. Commodities are also in the bear camp but the bulls are trying to jam GTX higher to stop the market selling. Bulls need higher commodities and chips and lower volatility if they want to place the stock market upside back on track.

Bears will likely focus on damaging the banks next week to try and continue the downside in the stock market.

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/18; 1:10 PM EST = +40; signal line is +72

9/7/18; 1:01 PM EST = +56; signal line is +73

9/7/18; 12:30 PM EST = +40; signal line is +73

9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74
9/6/18; 11:16 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side as commodities join the bear camp providing additional negativity to the stock market. In addition, semiconductors collapse and the SOX teases the 1366.20 level that Keybot identifies as the bull-bear line in the sand. It is amazing how the algorithm can identify these levels before they occur. The SOX price bounced off this level during the afternoon. If it would have failed, the stock market would have been toast.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. However, the US Monthly Jobs Report is on tap in the morning which may create a wild move up, or down, in the stock market. The bears need to push SOX below 1366.20 (now at 1366.35) which will create stock market carnage.

The bulls need the chips to recover higher which may occur considering the AVGO and MRVL earnings reports result in big gains for these tickers in late trading tonight. The bulls need GTX above 2709 (now at 2700) and/or VIX below 13.21 (now at 14.65). If either GTX or VIX turns bullish, consider the caution flag to be out. If both turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX then prints above 2892, Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

Note that the VIX closed at 14.65 only 2 pennies under the critical 14.67 level. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST and this will immediately provide a hint as to what direction the stock market will move on Friday (stocks move inversely to volatility). Bulls need the VIX to remain under 14.65 and head lower below 13.21. Bears need the VIX to pop above 14.67 and they will begin slapping the bulls silly. The stage is set for Friday's drama. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = 

9/6/18; 11:16 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74

9/5/18; 3:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. Stock market direction is currently dictated by volatility and commodities. Stock market bulls need the VIX below 13.20 (now at 13.88) while the bears need GTX below 2711 (now at 2721). One of these two parameters will flinch and tell you the path ahead for equities.

If the VIX remains above 13.20 in the bear camp and GTX above 2711 in the bull camp, stocks will chop sideways with a slight downward bias. If the GTX turns bearish, the stock market will take a strong leg lower and if the VIX takes out the 14.65 level heading higher, stocks will be dropping like a rock.

If VIX falls below 13.20, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play especially if the SPX rallies above 2894. The beat goes on.

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/18; 3:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Tuesday at SPX 2888. The VIX prints above 13.19 the current bull-bear line in the sand for the stock market. Bulls need VIX below 13.19 (now at 13.74 as this is typed) to stop the stock market selling.

Bears need weaker commodities, banks and NYA Index to continue the path lower for equities. Bears need GTX under 2714 (now at 2748).

On the last trade, the algo program gains +0.7% and the actual trading +1.4%. The actual trading is up nearly +13% this year versus the benchmark SPX up +8%. Keybot exited SSO and entered TWM remaining in the 2x ETF's.

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =

9/5/18; 3:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75

9/4/18; 3:59 PM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short

9/4/18; 9:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74; go short 2888; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +12.9%)

9/4/18; 7:16 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

9/4/18; 6:05 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
9/4/18; 5:03 AM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long
9/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +72

8/31/18; 3:40 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71

8/31/18; 3:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long

8/31/18; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +69

8/31/18; 11:53 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68

8/31/18; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +66

8/31/18; 9:47 AM EST = +84; signal line is +65

8/31/18; 7:28 AM EST = +70; signal line is +63

8/31/18; 4:37 AM EST = +84; signal line is +63

8/30/18; 3:01 PM EST = +70; signal line is +62

8/30/18; 2:39 PM EST = +84; signal line is +61

8/30/18; 2:28 PM EST = +70; signal line is +60

8/28/18; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +59

8/26/18; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58

8/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +58

8/23/18; 10:30 AM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2868; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +7.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = -2.9%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +11.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a volatile Friday session. The VIX was jumping to and fro but at the closing bell stays in the bull camp. US markets are closed tomorrow for the Labor Day holiday.

On Tuesday, when US trading is back on line, the bulls need higher copper to provide upside legs to the stock market rally and more new all-time record highs.

The bears need VIX above 13.41, GTX below 2710 and/or XLF under 27.85. If any of the three parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be on the table, and if the SPX then drops under 2892, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bears will benefit from higher volatility and weaker commodities and banks. Bulls need stronger copper.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday, 9/7/18.

9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =

9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =

9/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +72

8/31/18; 3:40 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71

8/31/18; 3:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long

8/31/18; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +69

8/31/18; 11:53 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68

8/31/18; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +66