STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utilities and copper continue running the show over the last week or so. Note how UTIL tested the important 708.93 bull-bear line in the sand on Friday and remains above. The stock market will fall apart if UTIL drops below 708.93.

The bulls will mount a strong recovery rally if copper rallies. Bulls need CPER above 17.15. If this occurs, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. The move in copper will have to be about +2.5% higher to reward the bulls.

If UTIL remains above 709, and CPER below 17.15, the stock market will chop sideways with a very slight upward bias.

Many global stock markets are already closed for the year. Monday, 12/31/18, is the last day of trading for 2018; EOM, EOQ4, EOY2018. US markets are closed Tuesday for New Year's Day. Wednesday, 1/2/19, begins the 2019 trading year.

On Tuesday, the Keybot the Quant algorithm will be re-zeroed for the 2019 trading year and the 2018 performance will be assessed. Keybot the Quant smoked most other algorithms on Wall Street in 2018. The quant's outperformance is not surprising. The model could not care less whether the stock market goes up or down. All Keybot sees is 1's and 0's. The model is programmed to take the smoothest path through the trading year always tracking the dominant trend, up or down.

12/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2018 =

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -20

12/27/18; 3:59 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market stages a record-setting comeback rally intraday on Thursday. UTIL moves above the critical 709 level to 711 which creates upside joy for equities. However, the bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. Things are getting interesting now. Bulls need stronger utes and copper and the two may be finally cooperating, hence the caution flag is out.

Bulls need CPER above 17.17 to create more upside strength for the stock market. Interestingly, even if copper turns bullish, Keybot may not flip long. If CPER comes up to 17.17, watch its behavior closely. If it oscillates above 17.17 for a while, then back below for a while, then back above, jogging above and below, that tells you the stock market will likely continue higher and begin mounting a strong relief rally higher and Keybot is likely ready to flip to the long side.

Bears need UTIL to fall back below 708.93 because pain and misery will immediately begin for stocks. There are only two trading days remaining in the year; today and Monday. Volume should be light. Continue watching copper and utilities.

12/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2018 =

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/27/18; 3:59 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18

12/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = -52; signal line is -17

12/24/18; 10:13 AM EST = -52; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage a humongous rally due to the uber negative sentiment. The bulls are all smiles patting each other on the back. However, the bulls need stronger copper and utilities; so far they got buptkis.

Bulls need UTIL above 708-709 pronto (now at 704), otherwise, stocks will roll back over into oblivion. Bulls need CPER above 17.18 (now at 16.88) which would also verify that a substantive relief rally has begun.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 37 points below the signal line. Keybot likely wants to see both the utes and copper above the levels indicated for the algo to flip long. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/24/18; 10:13 AM EST = -52; signal line is -15

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bears are cruising with the algo number 22 points below the signal line. As the previous post explains, UTIL 736.88, UTIL 708 and CPER 17.27 will tell the market directional story. Watch utilities and copper.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday. There are only five trading days remaining in the year. The Monday session, Christmas Eve, is a shortened session in the US. Markets are closed tomorrow for Christmas Day. Liquidity is thin so it will be another tricky week ahead. The beat goes on.

1/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =

1/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2018 =

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -14

12/21/18; 1:56 PM EST = -36; signal line is -13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. President Trump harpoons the stock market over the last couple days. A US partial government shutdown, that caused stock market angst, is underway.

The Friday session started out with bulls hopeful. Utilities jump strongly higher with UTIL above the key bull-bear levels which stops the stock market selling. However, bulls need stronger copper to mount a strong relief rally but copper was negative and sinking. This told you that the bulls do not have strength to push higher. Sure enough, the utes rolled over to the downside and the stock market slid down the rabbit hole printing the worst week in a couple decades. December is the worst month since the 1930's and the Great Depression.

Utes and copper remain a key focus of the algorithm which is now tracking the UTIL 736.88 and 708.35 levels, extremely important for all of next week, and CPER 17.27. Bulls need UTIL above 737 and CPER above 17.27 to mount a strong stock market relief rally.

If UTIL loses the 708 level, the stock market will likely crash a la 1929.

IF UTIL remains between 709 and 736, and CPER below 17.27, status quo, the stock market will likely chop sideways with a slight downward bias. However, anything can happen since the Keybot algorithm only sees 1's and 0's as the "Trump Shutdown," according to the democrats, plays out. Poor Santa Claus is stuck in the middle.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 1:56 PM EST = -36; signal line is -13

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -11

12/21/18; 9:41 AM EST = -20; signal line is -10

12/20/18; 1:46 PM EST = -36; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utes move back into the bear camp which created more stock market weakness into the closing bell. The bears are cruising. Stock market weakness will continue if UTIL remains below 733.60.

Bulls need UTIL above 733.60 and CPER above 17.28. UTIL 736.88 is important for all of next week instead of 733.60 so watch how UTIL ends the Friday session since this will hint at stock market direction on Monday. Bulls need to push UTIL above 737 in the Friday session to prove that they can create a strong relief rally. Watch copper since bulls cannot gain upside acceleration without Dr Copper on their team.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/18; 1:46 PM EST = -36; signal line is -10

12/20/18; 11:21 AM EST = -20; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. The bears remain in charge with the algo number 10 points below the signal line. Steady negative news bites keep stocks weak. Fed Chairman Powell harpooned equities yesterday. President Trump started crushing markets today by not agreeing to sign a stop-gap bill to prevent a government shutdown. So there is lots of negativity and doom and gloom in the air.

Utilities remain bullish which are the bulls big hope. UTIL is at 734 above the critical 733.60 bull-bear level for all of this week but only above by pennies. Next week this key level changes to 736.88 so the bulls need to push utes higher as the week ends or that portends a weak stock market come Monday.

Bulls need to keep UTIL above 733.60 and must also push copper higher. Bulls need CPER above 17.28.

Bears need weaker utilities, UTIL under 733.60, and stocks will collapse. Ho, whoa, whoa. UTIL is now printing 733.63........

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/18; 11:21 AM EST = -20; signal line is -10

12/19/18; 1:03 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11

12/19/18; 12:46 PM EST = -20; signal line is -11

12/18/18; 12:39 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo becomes more active today printing five numbers including the pre-market pre-scheduled number. The algo number is 25 points below the signal line so the bears are happy and throwing confetti.

You can see the battle at the UTIL 733.60 bull-bear level that is ongoing. Bulls need UTIL above 733.60 while bears are happy with UTIL sitting on the underside.

Bulls need stronger copper but futures collapse -3% today. The bulls are trying to push the semiconductors higher to gain strength from the chips. Bulls need SOX above 1217.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/18/18; 12:39 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11

12/18/18; 12:24 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10

12/18/18; 11:06 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9

12/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -9

12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -8

12/17/18; 3:29 PM EST = -36; signal line is -7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the bears spank the bulls to begin the new week of trading. Utilities failed. UTIL slips below the critical 733.60 bull-bear line in the sand creating and verifying today's stock market negativity. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 29 points below the signal line. The bulls are begging for mercy but they never showed the bears mercy during the near-one-decade central banker induced stock market rally.

If UTIL moves above 733.60, the stock market selling will stop and prices will stabilize sideways. Bulls still need higher copper; CPER above 17.33.

Bears need UTIL to remain below 733.60 and the stock market mayhem and carnage will continue going forward. If UTIL 709 fails, there is a high probability the stock market will crash. Thus, watch utes and copper the two most important parameters in the stock market currently.

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =

12/17/18; 3:29 PM EST = -36; signal line is -7

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The algo did not print any numbers last week. Parameters remain very bearish sans utilities. The bears remain in control with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities to continue the downside fun. Bears need UTIL under 733.60 (now up at 758) to create long-term market carnage. The 733.60 number is valid for all of this week and then it will change to 736.88 for all of the following week. Thus, the UTIL 733-737 level can be considered an important support gauntlet into year end. The stock market could potentially crash if this UTIL 733-737 level fails into the new year; especially if UTIL then fails at 708.

Bulls need to keep utes buoyant. It appears, looking at Keybot's data, that copper remains the key for the bulls. Stronger copper will stop the downward slide in stocks. Bulls need CPER above 17.34 (now at 17.22) which will signal that the stock market selling is over. Let's see, that is 12 cents, or a +0.7% increase needed in copper to make the bulls happy. Thus, watch the copper futures overnight to see if the bulls can rally the red metal +0.7%, or not. It will tell you the story for the US stock market on Monday.

If copper turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the upside to be in play and if the SPX would move above 2635, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. Watch to see if copper shines higher, or, if it is tarnished and shunned.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the whole week goes by without the algorithm printing one number. That is a rarity but it does occur now and then. The market strangeness continues. Friday was a huge flush lower for stocks, however, the utilities remain strongly positive. If this was a long-term downturn, you would expect the utes to be far lower.

The bulls keep trying to push copper higher so they can put a floor in the stock market selling. They only manage to move it sideways.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algorithm idles along all week not yet printing any numbers. The bears remain in control with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

Copper remains key. Bulls need CPER above 17.34 to prove that they can stop the stock market selling. Copper futures are flat to lower. No, check that. Copper futures turn a hair positive up +0.1% as this message is typed 5-1/2 hours before the Wednesday regular stock market trading session. The bears are growling but S&P futures are starting to receive a bid higher. The beat goes on.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bears are in charge with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Friday was bear carnage.

The bulls are hurting. Bulls will likely try to push copper higher on Monday to try and start a relief rally in the stock market. Bulls need CPER above 17.35 (now at 17.23). Thus, watch the copper futures overnight to see if they are up or down and if up, if they are over +0.7% higher. That will tell you about the stock market direction when Monday begins trading in the regular session. If CPER moves above 17.35, consider the imminent turn to be in play for the algorithm, however, the SPX will likely need a rally above 2708 on Monday to flip long.

Utilities are in the stratosphere. UTIL is at 754. Bears need this to drop to 726.41 any day this week to create further weakness in stocks. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Copper should be key on Monday.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the carnage occurs on Wall Street. There is blood in the streets. Two traders, unable to deal with the turmoil, jumped from windows; fortunately they were on the ground floor. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points below the signal line. The algo idles along quietly since Tuesday only printing the two pre-scheduled numbers yesterday morning.

Bulls will likely need stronger copper to stop the stock market selling and begin a relief rally.

Despite the stock market bearishness, it is interesting to see utilities run higher. Bears need weaker utilities if they want to create a sustainable market malaise for many months. The price action in markets is historic. Markets remain erratic and unstable. The S&P 500 is negative on the year.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

12/4/18; 12:11 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a short time ago at SPX 2767. Markets obviously remain erratic and unstable. The bulls were on easy street but the stock market deteriorated after the US-China trade deal is looking like smoke and mirrors. The yield curve is inverting spooking investors. It is one heck of a turnaround.

The banks are in an all-out free fall down -3% as a sector. Utilities catapult higher. The bulls are going to need to push the SPX back above 2752 to steady the ship. Price is at the lows of the day as this message is typed at 1:37 PM EST. The SPX is at 2713 a 77-point drubbing, down -2.8% on the day; a mini-crash.

On the last trade that lasted about a week, the Keybot computer program gains +1.7% and the actual trading gains +3.5%. The S&P 500 benchmark is up +3.5% on the year with only 16 days trading remaining in the year. The algo program is up +7% this year and the actual trading is up over +19%. Keybot is a smart robot. US markets are closed tomorrow for the funeral of former President George HW Bush; Bush 41. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The beat goes on.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/4/18; 12:11 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/4/18; 11:32 AM EST = -6; signal line is -6; go short 2767; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +6.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +19.2%)
12/4/18; 11:19 AM EST = +10; signal line is -7
12/4/18; 10:59 AM EST = +26; signal line is -8
12/4/18; 9:58 AM EST = +42; signal line is -9
12/3/18; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is -11

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16

11/30/18; 11:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17
11/30/18; 11:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long

11/29/18; 3:11 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18

11/29/18; 2:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks rocket launch higher in the Monday session. The happy talk from the Trump-Xi meeting on the weekend creates an orgy of bullish joy. The algo number spikes to +58 so the bulls are in full control of the markets with the algo number 69 points above the signal line.

Bulls will continue the stock market rally if NYA moves above 12668 (now at 12577). VIX below 15.83 will launch the stock market into the stratosphere.

Bears need the NYA and VIX to remain in the bear camp and at the same time need stronger banks. Bears need XLF below 26.84 (now at 27.14) and a visible leg lower in the stock market will occur. There are a lot of moving parts right now with many parameters in play. The bulls are on easy street cruising down the road with their feet up on the dashboard. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =

12/3/18; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is -11

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the new week of trading set to begin. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 25 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. The algo number should jump even higher in the opening minutes of trading Monday morning because UTIL will be above 731.08 an important bull-bear level for the week ahead.

The bulls are on easy street with UTIL above 731.08. Going forward, you can tell that the upside stock market rally has additional legs higher if either SOX moves above 1246 or RTH above 104.26. The upside in equities may stall if the chips and retail stocks do not join the bullish party.

The bears need UTIL to drop below 731, CPER below 17.34, XLF below 26.79 and/or SPX below 2752. There are lots of moving parts in the market right now. The S&P 500 begins at 2760 so pay close attention to that 2752 level; bulls are happy above 2752 while bears will begin growling strongly under 2752.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning. President's Trump and Xi agree to delay further implementation of increased tariffs so the markets should view that positively.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16

November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 is Available from Amazon

The November publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 is available from Amazon. The October crash is explained in real-time as it occurs in the 2018-10 publication. November is sideways choppiness with AAPL crashing -18% and oil crashing -22%.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-12 for December is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Tuesday, 1/1/19.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the bulls and bears battle. The algo is tracking copper, utilities and banks. The key SPX 2751-2752 level was breached to the upside. Stock market bulls cheer and throw confetti since this level is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull and cyclical bear market. The fight will likely continue at this level.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. Utilities will likely add more bullish joy on Monday morning. UTIL 731.08 is a key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week and utes are in position to blow up through here on Monday's opening bell.

The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out. The meeting between President's Trump and Xi begins shortly (Saturday) and the two leaders will either be dancing the tango come later this evening, or, both will be doing the two-step out opposite doors. Obviously, the results of the meeting will move markets on Sunday evening and Monday. November is in the bag. Trading for December begins Monday. The Sunday and end-of-month (EOM) November pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16
11/30/18; 11:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17

11/30/18; 11:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long
11/29/18; 3:11 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18

11/29/18; 2:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19

11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)