STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo finally printing a few numbers. Volatility pops so stocks drop. The algo number is only 10 points above the signal line.

Bulls need to push VIX below 14.38, now trading at 14.666, to save the day and continue the upside path of the stock market. Bears win going forward if they keep the VIX above 14.38.

Bears need RTH below 119.00, weaker retail stocks, and/or weaker utilities, with UTIL losing the 863 level, as previously discussed, to create stock market carnage. If the retail stocks and utes remain in the bull camp, the bears got nothing. Copper futures need to drop about -3% to help the bear case. Copper futures are currently down -0.9% so the bears need another -2% to create stock market carnage.

The bulls only need to drive volatility lower and they can celebrate the arrival of 2020 with smiles and confetti while sipping Fed wine. Bears need weaker retail stocks, utilities and copper to celebrate the new year. If one of these three parameters fail today, on this last trading day of 2019, EOM, EOQ4, EOH2, EOY2019, and if the SPX drops below 3217, Keybot will likely flip short.

Therefore, the caution flag is out and if any of these Three Stooges turn bearish consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. Happy New Year and Great Prosperity to All!!

The trading data will be closed out after 4 PM EST today and the quant will be re-zeroed and started for the 2020 trading year.

1/5/20; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2019 =

12/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/30/19; 1:08 PM EST = +74; signal line is +64

12/30/19; 12:28 PM EST = +88; signal line is +63
12/30/19; 9:42 AM EST = +74; signal line is +61

12/29/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers last week. The bulls are riding high into 2020 with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. Bears need VIX above 14.61 and/or RTH below 119.00, otherwise, they got buptkis. 

Utilities rally the last couple weeks stabbing the bears in the back and allowing the bulls to freely celebrate the central banker glory. Bears need UTIL below 862.90 (now at 876). Stocks will not trade on Wednesday due to the New Year's Day holiday but the 863 bull-bear line in the sand remains in effect all week long.

The plot thickens for the week of 1/6/19, the first full trading week of the new year, when UTIL 876.46 is the key bull-bear line in the sand (exactly where price is right now). Thus, if UTIL is below 876.46 come Friday, 1/3/19, at 4 PM EST, as the new week of trading ahead ends, the stock market will be in serious trouble going forward.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week on Tuesday. The 2019 trading year ends at 4 PM EST Tuesday so the quant will be re-zeroed and the program started for 2020. The year was a huge success.

Watch utes, volatility and retail stocks since these are the three key drivers of stock market direction as the new week of trading begins.

1/5/20; 7:00 PM EST =

12/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2019 =

12/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/29/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +59

12/22/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as trading is set to begin for the day after Christmas which is also Boxing Day and Kwanza. Same dealio as prior message. The bulls are cruising along without a care in the world. The bears need VIX above 14.58 and/or RTH below 118.70 to create market mayhem.

Keep watching utilities. UTIL 862.90 is a key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week. Therefore, focus on where UTIL finishes the week tomorrow, Friday, at 4 PM EST, since that provides a heads-up for Monday morning. If UTIL finishes the week below 863, there will be H*ll to pay in the stock market next week. If UTIL finishes the week (tomorrow) above 863, the bulls will be celebrating all weekend long drinking Fed wine and singing songs.

12/29/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the band plays on. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3227.78 and new all-time closing high at 3224.01. The bears are running for their lives leaving the coal in their stockings behind. Keybot did not print any numbers in the Monday session and the algo number remains 31 points above the signal line with the bulls running the show.

The bulls want the stock market joy to continue into 2020 as the Santa Claus Rally period begins. The quant is tracking volatility and the retail stocks as the two key parameters controlling market direction currently.

Bears need VIX above 14.58 and/or RTH below 118.70. If one parameter turns bearish, the caution flag will be out. If both turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be in play. If both turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 3222, Keybot may flip short. If both parameters remain bullish, stocks will float higher into 2020.

Tomorrow is Christmas Eve and an early close at 1 PM EST. Usually, the day is a low volume quiet session, however, in recent years, the holiday days sometimes prove quite volatile. It actually will not take much for the VIX to spike and retail stocks to drop so keep your eyes open.

The central bankers are busy behind the scenes. The Fed is pumping money into the markets to make sure a liquidity event does not occur at the end of the year. The PBOC promises to keep cutting reserve requirement ratio's (RRR's; the triple R's) for banks. Never forget; the central bankers are the market. The beat goes on. Happy Holidays.

12/29/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3225.65 and new all-time closing high at 3221.22 on Friday, 12/20/19. This is the complete opposite of last year's finish with the Christmas Eve collapse. The view from this permanently-high plateau, as Irving would say, is astounding.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 31 points above the signal line. One of the few negative parameters in the Keybot model is that the quant continues to signal a housing recession has begun despite the market joy.

The Federal Reserve's Q4 money-pump creates the distortions in pricing over the last couple months. Utilities sky-rocket higher, so, as explained a week or so ago, that is a major win for the bulls in the intermediate and long-term ahead. However, when stocks roll over and die, watch the utes, since if they drop along with stocks and continue lower in tandem that will signal an extended bear market ahead for equities. If utilities remain elevated when stocks retreat, that will indicate that the stock market should hold up well for much of next year. For now, everyone is fat, dumb and happy, eating holiday food, drinking Fed wine and celebrating the Power and Majesty of the Fed.

Parameters are pegged into the bull market ceilings. Bears may have some hope in stopping the never-ending upside stock market records if volatility spikes higher or if retail stocks, commodities and/or utilities drop lower. Bears need VIX above 14.84 and/or RTH below 118.57. A drop of -3% and more for commodities and utilities will also help the bear case. Other than that, the bulls rule as 2019 ends and 2020 begins soon.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The stock market is closed on Wednesday for Christmas and Tuesday, Christmas Eve, is an early close at 1 PM EST. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/29/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/22/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +57

12/20/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +55
12/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls control the stock market while singing songs each day. The Federal Reserve money pump in Q4 has sent equities to the moon. The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3205.48 and all-time closing high at 3205.37 above the 3.2K level for the first time in history. The view from the permanent plateau is astounding.

The quant's parameters are pegged to the upside. It is interesting that the model continues calling for a housing recession as stocks make new record highs. Keybot is tracking several parameters currently with volatility at the top of the list. Bears need the VIX above 14.84 (now at 12.48) if they want to growl. If the VIX remains below 14.84, the bulls rule.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning. The bulls saved the utilities this week. Commodities and copper rally on the happy US-China trade deal. The quant has not printed any numbers this week except for the pre-scheduled number. Everything is jammed to the upside on the Fed's easy money. Everyday is a party in the stock market, however, the underlying price action remains unstable and erratic.

12/22/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/20/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +54

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the SPX prints another new all-time record high at 3197.71 and new all-time record closing high at 3191.45. Every day is wine and roses. Keybot did not print any numbers during the Monday session. The pre-scheduled number prints in about 3 hours.

Housing Starts are key this morning. The quant has identified the start of a housing recession in July but since then the central bankers have been printing money like madmen. The housing sector has received a boost with Starts at long-term record highs so the data is very important this morning and each month ahead. It will be interesting to see if Keybot rejects the recession call or continues on its merry way predicting trouble ahead for housing.

Note how UTIL was jammed higher to 867 well away from the 848.30 line in the sand. The bulls want no part of this level since doom and gloom begins below 848.

Bears need higher volatility and need to push the VIX above 14.84 (VIX is now trading at 12.30 with S&P futures down -5) if they expect to growl. The bulls are cruising along without a care in the world.

12/20/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish heading into the new week of trading. The bulls are jolly on happy US-China trade talk and the never-ending central banker easy money policies. The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 35 points above the signal line.

Bears need VIX above 15.08, RTH below 118.08 and/or UTIL below 848.30. The caution flag will be out if one of the three parameters turn bearish. The imminent turn to the short side will be in play if 2 of the 3 turn bearish. If all 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling like rocks. If all 3 remain bullish, every day will continue to be a party for the bulls.

UTIL 848.30 is critically important this week. If UTIL fails below here, the stock market is in serious trouble on a longer-term (many months and a year or two ahead) basis going forward. If UTIL remains above 848.30 and is ramping higher, the bulls will remain on easy street with record stock market highs continuing.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning.President Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives this week due to the Ukraine scandal. It will be interesting to see if markets react to that news.

Bulls are joyous and euphoric professing blue skies and rainbows ahead. Bears need higher volatility and weaker retail stocks and utilities to create stock market negativity. The stock market remains highly unstable and erratic.

12/22/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/20/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +53

12/11/19; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as joyous trade news and the UK election create global positivity in markets. The quant did not print any numbers on Thursday and Friday. Keybot is cruising along showing that the bulls remain in full control of the stock market with the algo number 36 points above the signal line.

Bears will need higher volatility and weaker retail stocks and utilities next week if they expect to growl. Commodities rallied last week helping to maintain buoyancy in the stock market.

Note how the market makers came in and jammed UTIL higher during the Friday session, 10 points intraday, to the 856.85 closing print. Do you think the utes are important? The bulls know they have to prevent any failure in utilities to maintain the upside stock market happiness. This is how the cat and mouse game is played.

The key bull-bear line in the sand number for next week is UTIL 848.30. If UTIL 848-ish fails, the stock market will be rolling over and starting to fall apart. The bulls are fine and worry-free enjoying an elevated stock market as long as UTIL remains above 848-ish next week. The stock market is very erratic and unstable currently.

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/19; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The US and China announce a trade deal agreement but comically, nothing is in writing. Prime Minister Johnson maintains power after the UK elections creating a positive vibe around the world. S&P futures are up +13 with the VIX tumbling lower to 12.93.

The quant did not print any numbers yesterday. The bulls are cruising along with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. The Fed wine is flowing like water. The algo is tracking volatility, retail stocks, commodities and utilities as the key drivers of stock market direction currently.

Bears need higher volatility; the VIX above 15.18 (now at 12.93). Bears need RTH below 118.05 (now at 119.70). Bears need GTX below 2459 (now at 2529).

Utilities are providing drama. As previously mentioned, the utes are of uber importance going forward. UTIL is at a critical bounce or die decision at the 20-week MA. If utilities begin rallying higher again, the stock market bulls will be celebrating into early 2020 with more record highs. However, if utilities trend lower from here, that forecasts doom and gloom for the broad stock market for months, perhaps years forward.

UTIL is at 849.68 only about 4 points from the important 845.52 bull-bear line in the sand number. If UTIL loses the 845.52 level today, the stock market will begin rolling over and dying. For next week, the UTIL bull-bear line in the sand number is 848.30 (the 845.52 number becomes meaningless). Thus, watch utes very closely today and especially at the 4 PM EST closing bell. If UTIL ends today below 848.30, which is only about a buck away, the stock market is in serious trouble going forward. If UTIL ends today above 848.30, the bulls are fine and look forward to more upside equity joy next week.

If either volatility, retail stocks, commodities, or utes fall into the bear camp, any one would do, the upside move in US stocks will stop and the caution flag will be out. If 2 of the 4 turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side for Keybot will likely be on the table. If 3 or all 4 of the parameters turn bearish, the stock market will be collapsing lower. If all four parameters remain in the bull camp, traders will be drinking Fed whiskey, ECB champagne, BOJ sake and PBOC rice wine into the weekend and buying stocks with reckless abandon.

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/19; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell flaps his dovish wings sending stocks higher. The wealthy elite dance with glee watching stock portfolios grow ever larger. Such is the crony capitalism system.

Interestingly, volatility remained in the bear camp for the entire day yesterday until the final three minutes of trading. The bulls then came in and jammed the VIX lower. The central bankers maintain their jack boots on the throat of volatility to send equities higher and perform the bidding of Wall Street's investment banks. The beat goes on.

The bulls are in control with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. The bears need higher volatility and weaker retail stocks to position the quant to go short. Bears need VIX above 15.20 and RTH below 117.97. The VIX is currently trading at 14.90 making for happy bulls.

ECB President Lagarde speaks in about 4-1/2 hours which will move global markets. The central bankers are the market.

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/19; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

12/9/19; 3:09 PM EST = +74; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Markets are waiting for the Fed decision and Powell presser tomorrow. Keybot did not print any numbers today. As long as the VIX remains above 15.20, bulls are in trouble.

Bears would also benefit from weaker utilities, retail stocks and commodities. Bears need UTIL below 845.52, RTH below 117.99 and/or GTX below 2456, respectively. The caution flag will be out if one of the three turn bearish and the imminent turn to the short side will be in play if 2 or 3 of the 3 parameters turn bearish. If utilities fail going forward, this is a big-time negative signal for stocks that may begin to accelerate wildly lower.

Global traders await Chairman Powell on hump day afternoon and ECB President Lagarde on Thursday morning.

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/9/19; 3:09 PM EST = +74; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears lightly snap back at the bulls. Volatility jumps higher yesterday sending stocks lower. The VIX is currently trading at 16.45. The bulls need to push the VIX below 15.20 to send equities higher. The longer the VIX remains above 15.20, the sicker the stock market will become.

The bears need to maintain elevated volatility. At the same time, the bears need to spank the retail stocks lower. Bears need RTH below 117.97 (now at 119.21) which will begin market mayhem and the caution flag will be out. Bears also need weaker commodities. Bears need GTX to fall below 2451 (now at 2500).

If either RTH or GTX fail into the bear camp, the caution flag is out. If they both fail, the imminent turn to the short side will be in play for Keybot. Stocks are typically bullish into the Fed meetings 80% of the time but not this week thus far. S&P futures are down -11 about 2 hours before the opening bell for the regular Tuesday trading session. The VIX is at 16.49.  Professional traders may be willing to buy the lows today hoping for a little rally into the Wednesday afternoon Fed meeting.

The VIX, RTH and GTX are controlling stock market direction currently. Bulls need lower volatility and higher retail stocks and commodities. Bears need higher volatility and lower retail stocks and commodities. The beat goes on.

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/9/19; 3:09 PM EST = +74; signal line is +52

12/9/19; 2:54 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

12/9/19; 2:12 PM EST = +74; signal line is +52

12/8/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. The quant is tracking the retail stocks as the key driver of the broad stock market to begin the week.

The bears need RTH below 117.73 (now at 118.86). Bears also need to push the VIX above 15.08 (now at 13.62). Copper took off like a rocket which creates a happy stock market. The Fed rate decision and press conference is on Wednesday and usually stocks are buoyant into the meeting. The ECB decision and press conference on Thursday may be far more important.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Bears need weaker retail stocks and commodities and higher volatility if they want to growl.

12/15/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/8/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52

12/6/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long after the US Jobs Report that creates lift in the stock market. The bulls are throwing confetti and celebrating the joyous stock market. The bulls are in control with the algo number 37 points above the signal line.

Weaker retail stocks and commodities would help the bears, as well as a higher VIX, but everything is moving in the bulls favor. Keybot prints the two pre-scheduled numbers for this week. The beat goes on.

12/8/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/6/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +51

12/6/19; 9:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +51

12/4/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 3104 at the opening bell. The bulls jam volatility lower and copper and commodities higher turning the tables on the bears; a trifecta of bullish joy. Today's positive price action is a mirror-image of yesterday's negative behavior. The bulls are in full control with the algo number 37 points above the signal line.

President Trump says the US-China trade talks are going well. Yesterday he said a deal would not occur until after the November 2020 elections. The Barnum & Bailey showman jerks the stock market to and fro with his daily news embellishments. This morning's sound bites send futures and stocks up, up and away.

The bulls are driving the bus partying like its 1999. The bears need either CPER below 16.59, GTX below 2448 and/or VIX above 15.11. Any one of the three will stop the stock market upside. If all three remain bullish, the stock market moves sideways to sideways higher going forward. Watch copper. As copper goes, so goes the market.

On the last trade, that ran only four days, the algo program gains over +1% and the actual trading gains nearly +3%. The benchmark SPX is up +24% this year and the actual trading return generated by Keybot is up +43% this year. Keybot exits QID and enters QLD remaining in 2x leveraged ETF's. Markets are very erratic and unstable so expect the unexpected.

12/8/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/6/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/6/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/4/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +51

12/4/19; 9:30 AM EST = +58; signal line is +51; go long 3104; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +23.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +20.6%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +42.8%)

12/4/19; 9:03 AM EST = +58; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short

12/4/19; 8:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +53

12/4/19; 7:22 AM EST = +58; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
12/3/19; 3:52 PM EST = +44; signal line is +55
12/3/19; 3:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +56
12/3/19; 3:27 PM EST = +44; signal line is +58
12/3/19; 3:25 PM EST = +28; signal line is +59

12/3/19; 1:57 PM EST = +12; signal line is +60
12/3/19; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +63

12/3/19; 10:39 AM EST = +12; signal line is +65

12/3/19; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +67

12/3/19; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +70

12/3/19; 10:21 AM EST = +28; signal line is +71

12/3/19; 9:54 AM EST = +12; signal line is +73
12/3/19; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +75
12/3/19; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +78

12/3/19; 5:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +79

12/2/19; 11:25 AM EST = +74; signal line is +80
12/2/19; 11:11 AM EST = +60; signal line is +80

12/2/19; 10:07 AM EST = +74; signal line is +80
12/2/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains short

12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +81

11/29/19; 12:42 PM EST = +74; signal line is +81; go short 3142; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +25.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.4%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +40.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a very active day for the algorithm. The quant prints 14 numbers today the most in quite some time. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 11 points below the signal line.

We saw early this morning that commodities were bearish, copper was collapsing turning bearish, and volatility started spiking higher after President Trump said a US-China trade deal may not occur until after the November 2020 election. You knew the day would be ugly for the bulls.

Thus, weaker commodities and copper, and higher volatility, are creating the stock market mayhem. The chips and retail stocks failed into the bear camp today causing stock market weakness but recovered intraday. Watch SOX 1662.41 and RTH 117.70 as key bull-bear lines in the sand. Bears need to smack semiconductors and retail stocks lower to send stocks further south.

Bulls need either commodities, copper or volatility to turn bullish, any one of the three would do to place the algo in the imminent turn to the long side position, and if the SPX would then move above 3095, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long. The stakes are high for hump day. One of the five parameters above will flinch and immediately send the broad stock market in that direction.

Bulls win if the VIX drops below 15.14. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so that will give you a heads-up on ow the US stock market plans on trading during the hump day session. Bears win if SOX drops below 1662.41 and/or RTH below 117.70. The stage is set for the Wednesday battle.

12/6/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/3/19; 3:52 PM EST = +44; signal line is +55

12/3/19; 3:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +56

12/3/19; 3:27 PM EST = +44; signal line is +58

12/3/19; 3:25 PM EST = +28; signal line is +59

12/3/19; 1:57 PM EST = +12; signal line is +60

12/3/19; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +63

12/3/19; 10:39 AM EST = +12; signal line is +65

12/3/19; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +67

12/3/19; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +70

12/3/19; 10:21 AM EST = +28; signal line is +71
12/3/19; 9:54 AM EST = +12; signal line is +73

12/3/19; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +75

12/3/19; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +78
12/3/19; 5:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +79

12/2/19; 11:25 AM EST = +74; signal line is +80

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 6 points below the signal line. Keybot was active in the Monday session printing four numbers. Commodities, copper and volatility control stock market direction currently. Commodities are in the bear camp with copper and volatility in the bull camp. One of these will flinch and tell you the direction ahead.

Stock market bulls need to push GTX (commodities) above 2445 (now at 2432) which will create stock market upside, position Keybot to flip long and signal the all-clear for new record highs ahead.

The bears must keep GTX in the bear camp while at the same time sending CPER (copper) below the 16.61 palindrome (now at 16.62 only one measly penny above) and/or the VIX above 15.11 (now at 14.73). Copper futures are down -0.5%. Houston, we have a problem. Copper representative CPER will fail at the opening bell if this price action remains in place.

S&P futures are up +5 which is surprising since copper is failing. The VIX popped above 15.11 yesterday for a short time which corresponded to the lows in the S&P 500. If the VIX moves above 15.11, it is lights-out for stocks.

Do not forget to watch the utilities closely. Bears need UTIL to fall below 832-ish this week (now at 845) which will create market carnage. If the bulls can keep UTIL elevated and keep the bears at bay, next week the bears only need to push UTIL below 845 to create stock market mayhem and misery (and price is here now).

Thus, bulls need stronger commodities. Bears need weaker copper, which they are receiving this morning, and higher volatility. The VIX is a hair lower in today's trade now at 14.80 (the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST). With the copper failure on tap, futures should be lower not higher. The bulls may be trying to goose commodities behind the scenes to counteract the negativity of copper collapsing.

This is an important juncture. The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. They took the VIX above 15.11 yesterday and were holding a strong stock market selloff in their furry paws but the bulls slapped it away jamming vol lower to stage a slight recovery in equities as the session played out. The beat goes on.

12/8/19; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/6/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/2/19; 11:25 AM EST = +74; signal line is +80
12/2/19; 11:11 AM EST = +60; signal line is +80
12/2/19; 10:07 AM EST = +74; signal line is +80
12/2/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains short
12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +81

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side near the end of the holiday-shortened Friday trading session at SPX 3142. Commodities are taken to the wood shed out back and beaten severely. GTX loses -2.6%. CRB drops -2.1%. Analysts proclaim that commodities are in an uptrend after a four-month rally but they are crushed in the Friday session. Copper drops but remains a hair in the bull camp. The bears are in charge with the algo number 7 points below the signal line.

Commodities and copper are controlling stock market direction. It is simple. Bulls need GTX back above 2447 (now at 2423) to regain the mantle of victory and send the SPX to more new record highs.

Bears need CPER to drop below 16.59 (now at 16.65) to send equities sharply lower. Note that the market makers moved the number off the ominous 16.66 since many folks in the financial industry are superstitious. Bears need copper futures to drop about -0.4%, call it a half-percent, so watch this closely overnight Sunday into Monday since it will tell you the direction of the US stock market when it opens for trading. Bears would also benefit from higher volatility.

If commodities (GTX) remains bearish, and copper (CPER) remains bullish, status quo, stocks will chop sideways.

On the last trade, that only started on Monday and ran to Friday, with Turkey Day in the middle, the Keybot the Quant program gains +0.3% and the actual trading gains +0.6%. Keybot exits SSO and enters QID remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

The benchmark S&P 500 is up over +25% this year. The power of the Federal Reserve and the global central banker cabal is astounding. The world is awash in central bank liquidity for over a decade and all asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, vineyards, art, collectibles, antique cars, etc...) are continually pumped higher and higher, and higher, and higher. The actual trading by Keybot the Quant is up +40% this year clearly outperforming the SPX benchmark index as well as all its peers on Wall Street.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one before the Friday opening bell and one after. Now we see what the bears got. Commodities and copper are controlling the broad stock market direction currently. If GTX flips back into the bull camp, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If copper fails into the bear camp, stocks will be dropping like rocks and the bears will be growling loudly. If copper fails and then the VIX pops above 15.10, the stock market is toast. The beat goes on.

12/8/19; 7:00 PM EST =

12/6/19; 10:00 AM EST =

12/6/19; 9:00 AM EST =
12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +81

11/29/19; 12:42 PM EST = +74; signal line is +81; go short 3142; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +25.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.4%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +40.0%)
11/29/19; 10:34 AM EST = +74; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long

11/26/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +82

11/25/19; 3:31 PM EST = +88; signal line is +82; go long 3133; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +25.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +39.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market late-year melt-up continues fueled by US-China trade deal hype. Happy Thanksgiving to all. US markets are closed today as traders lounge around at home eating turkey legs and pumpkin pie. Under the cover of the Turkey Day holiday, President Trump signs the US bill supporting the Hong Kong protesters which will draw the ire of President Xi that told him for the last five months to not meddle in their Chinese domestic affairs. Comically, Trump tells Xi he is doing him a favor. Trump signed the bill because he would have been overruled by Congress anyway due to the bipartisan (majority of democrats and republicans) support for the bill.

S&P futures drop -10 on the news last evening and have remained there so not a big retreat on the negative news. Traders are likely waiting to see how China responds. Of course, signing the Hong Kong bill throws a wrench into the trade talks but it appears that Trump and Xi need political wins so both may desire a trade deal.

The big up in copper creates the new all-time high for the S&P 500 at 3153.63 the highest number in history and a new all-time closing high, the 26th of this year, at 3154.26.

The bears need weaker copper and commodities, CPER below 16.63 and/or GTX below 2452, respectively. This reflects a drop in copper futures of about -1.7% and a drop in commodities of about -1.5%. Copper futures are currently trading down -0.8% so the bears are halfway there.

The bears would also benefit from higher volatility. The stock market will fall apart when the VIX moves above 15 but the bulls are happy and content with the current 11-handle. Weaker utilities would also benefit the bears. Watch UTIL 832-ish through Friday, 12/6/19. If this level fails before then, stocks will be in serious trouble. If UTIL falls below 846 during the week of 12/16/19, stocks will be in serious trouble. UTIL is currently at 853.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. The caution flag remains out since the markets can turn on a dime due to the trade deal drama. Tomorrow, Friday is the last day of trading for November (EOM). It is surprising to see the stock market continue higher since when a month is up from start to finish, like November, it typically ends in weakness the last 2 or 3 days.

12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/26/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +82

11/25/19; 3:31 PM EST = +88; signal line is +82; go long 3133; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +25.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +39.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side late in the Monday session at SPX 3133. The bulls are keeping copper in their camp, by a hair, so stocks remain elevated. Keybot was champing at the bit to go long yesterday but the gap-up move activated a delay timer which prevented the move long, but by late day, the stock market overcame its record highs to print more new record highs and cause the quant to flip.

The S&P 500 prints the highest number in history at 3133.83 and a new all-time closing high at 3133.64 both on Monday, 11/25/19, only three days before Thanksgiving Day.

Stay alert for a potential whipsaw move back to the short side. It all depends on copper. Copper futures were positive overnight but starting at 4 AM EST turned negative down -0.2% five hours before the start of the US Tuesday trading session. Weak copper would help the bears flip the model back to the short side.

On the last trade, that only ran for three trading days, the Keybot algo program loses -0.6% and the actual trading loses -1.3%. For the year, with only a month remaining, the S&P 500 benchmark stock market index is up +25% and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up over +39%. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

Interestingly, Keybot only flipped long yesterday due to the market behavior in that one-minute time slot at 3:31 PM EST; if that had not occurred, Keybot would still be short. In other words, markets are a toss-up right now, a coin-flip. Keybot is a smart robot and it may have wanted to flip long to potentially whipsaw back to the short side today or tomorrow since that would drop it into single 1x ETF mode to reduce risk in choppy markets. Time will tell.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning. Trading volume is light since it is a holiday-shortened trading week. The caution flat remains out and if copper remains negative and slumps lower, the imminent turn back to the short side will be in play. For now, the bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number only 6 points above the signal line. Doctor Copper is deciding who he wants to take to the dance.

12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/26/19; 10:00 AM EST =

11/25/19; 3:31 PM EST = +88; signal line is +82; go long 3133; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +25.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +39.4%)
11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains short

11/22/19; 10:52 AM EST = +88; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains short
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +81
11/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +80

11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

11/20/19; 10:25 AM EST = +74; signal line is +79; go short 3113; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +24.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.7%)(Actual results this trade = +13.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +40.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. Once again, the bulls pumped copper on Friday and you can see from 11 AM EST on, the stock market went straight up. 'As copper goes, so goes the market' these days.

The bulls need the SPX to move above the 3113 palindrome and trend higher and Keybot will likely flip long, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The SPX is at 3110 so watch to see if the S&P futures are up a couple points or more overnight Sunday.

The bears need copper to turn bearish. Bears need CPER below 16.59 and price is only 2 pennies above at 16.61. Bulls will rejoice with upside ecstasy for the stock market if CPER remains above 16.59 and heads higher. Watch to see if copper futures drop from -0.2% to -0.4% which is what the bears need if they want to send stocks south.

Weaker commodities, GTX falling below 2448, and/or higher volatility, the VIX moving above 15.10, will send stocks strongly lower. The stock market will be okay if commodities and volatility remain in the bull camp. If they fail, the stock market will fall apart.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning. The trading month of November finishes on Friday (EOM). Thursday is the Thanksgiving Day holiday so markets are closed. Friday is an early close. Trading volume may be light. The stock market is usually quiet and buoyant around Thanksgiving but in these epic times, anything goes.

Watch Doctor Copper; he's laying on the gurney but the central bankers and US-China trade representatives keep shooting him with morphine every now and then so he jumps up and dances a jig.

12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/26/19; 10:00 AM EST =

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains short

11/22/19; 10:52 AM EST = +88; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains short

11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +81

11/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +80

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Copper fails into the bear camp creating stock market sogginess. Bears need weaker commodities and higher volatility to increase the selling pressure. Bulls need to pump copper higher to save the day. The SPX is down 4 points at 3104.

11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =

11/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +80

11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side today as the wild and crazy market action continues. Keybot flips bearish today but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. The bulls jam commodities higher to try and regain control of the stock market.

If the SPX moves above 3119, which will probably have to occur after 10:25 AM EST tomorrow (Thursday, 11/21/19), Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The quant is short but the bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The internal parameters of the model are creating market negativity. It is a bull-bear battle. Flip a coin.

The bears need weaker copper and commodities and higher volatility if they want to take the stock market lower. Bears must push CPER below 16.59, GTX under 2446 and/or VIX above 15.12, respectively, to create market carnage. In fact, you can gauge the amount of downside juice that is in the stock market by these three parameters.

If none of the three parameters turn bearish, the bears got nothing and stocks will rally. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, the imminent turn notation immediately goes away and equities will be falling. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will be accelerating lower. If all 3 turn bearish, the caution flag will be removed and stocks will be falling into oblivion taking out stops like they are not even there.

Pay attention to copper. For the last couple weeks, 'as copper goes, so goes the market'. Copper futures need to drop -0.2%, a marginal amount, to guarantee stock market downside ahead; futures are currently down -0.1%. Copper overnight provides a heads-up for the US stock market on Thursday.

S&P futures are down -6 on Wednesday evening in the States on the East Coast. The Impeachment Hearings continue into the evening. The US-China trade deal negotiations continue. The global central bank money printing continues. The beat goes on.

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at the SPX 3113 palindrome. The S&P 500 continues bumping along sideways ever since. The bulls jam commodities higher to try and save the day but stocks remain soggy and the quant remains short. The Impeachment Hearings against President Trump continue with Ambassador Sondland testifying and the stock market idles sideways.

The bears need GTX below 2446, CPER below 16.59 and/or VIX above 15.12 to prove that down is the correct direction ahead. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw move back to the long side. The bull-bear battle continues since the algo flips short but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw long again. Time will tell. Bears need one of those three parameters to fail and they will comfortably start walking the stock market lower. If status quo continues, the bulls will slowly regain strength.

On the last trade, which lasted about 6 weeks, the rally was huge. The Keybot algo program gains over +6% while the actual trading gains +13%! The benchmark SPX index is up an astounding +24.2% this year. Wow. Even more impressive is the Keybot the Quant actual trading up almost +41% this year obviously outperforming every quant model on Wall Street. Keybot is a smart robot. The quant exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. Let's see if down is the way forward for stocks or if a whipsaw is on tap over the next day.

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

11/20/19; 10:25 AM EST = +74; signal line is +79; go short 3113; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +24.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.7%)(Actual results this trade = +13.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +40.7%)

11/19/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/19/19; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +79

11/15/19; 10:56 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79

11/13/19; 10:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

11/13/19; 10:21 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79

11/12/19; 3:36 PM EST = +72; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/8/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +78

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78

11/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77

11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

10/31/19; 9:48 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long

10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +74

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72

10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +70

10/23/19; 10:33 AM EST = +88; signal line is +67

10/22/19; 11:46 AM EST = +74; signal line is +64

10/22/19; 10:52 AM EST = +88; signal line is +61

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +59

10/18/19; 10:32 AM EST = +74; signal line is +56

10/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +54

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +50

10/15/19; 11:55 AM EST = +58; signal line is +48

10/15/19; 11:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +45

10/15/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +42

10/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +40

10/14/19; 9:20 AM EST = +88; signal line is +37
10/14/19; 5:26 AM EST = +74; signal line is +33
10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +30

10/11/19; 1:46 PM EST = +88; signal line is +27

10/11/19; 12:40 PM EST = +74; signal line is +24

10/11/19; 11:57 AM EST = +60; signal line is +23

10/11/19; 11:53 AM EST = +74; signal line is +22

10/11/19; 11:25 AM EST = +88; signal line is +20

10/11/19; 10:58 AM EST = +74; signal line is +18

10/11/19; 10:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +16

10/11/19; 10:08 AM EST = +74; signal line is +14
10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +11
10/11/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +9

10/10/19; 2:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +6

10/10/19; 11:21 AM EST = +42; signal line is +5
10/10/19; 9:57 AM EST = +26; signal line is +4
10/9/19; 3:33 PM EST = +12; signal line is +3; go long 2928; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.7%)

Note Added 1:09 PM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The news wires say the US-China trade deal hits a snag so stocks collapse. The SPX is down 23 points, -0.7%, to 3097 now sub 3.1K. The three parameters mentioned above, however, remains bullish. Bears need to turn at least one of them negative.