Sunday, March 24, 2019


Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo number is 15 points above the signal line as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls are driving the bus but the bears are trying to wrestle control of the steering wheel. Banks and copper are the two key parameters controlling broad stock market direction currently. CPER came down to the 17.76-17.77 level called out by Keybot ahead of time but price bounced instead of failing.

XLF is at 25.34 below the critical 25.93 bull-bear line in the sand which creates negativity in the stock market. CPER is at 17.83 above the critical 17.77 bull-bear line in the sand which creates positivity in the stock market. One of these two will flinch. Bulls need happier banks if they want to send stocks higher. Bears need weaker copper if they want to take stocks lower. Since copper is in a battle over 6 cents, it is the key to market direction. Watch the copper futures overnight since as copper goes, so goes the market.

Bears will also accelerate the downside in equities if NYA drops below 12472 (now only 67 points above at 12539) and/or if the SPX falls below 2749 (now 52 points above at 2801). Conversely, if selling continues in the stock market but neither of these two parameters fail, the bears got nothing, and equities will recover. If either parameter fails, stocks are in big trouble. If both fail, the stock market may collapse into free fall.

Thus, listen for news on the banks and copper. Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week two on Tuesday and the other on Friday. The trading month ends on Friday, EOM, and this is also quarter-end, EOQ1. Typically, there will be window-dressing but everything has gone up thus far this year so instead, investment houses may be more keen on locking in their big profits for this year.

So banks moving higher will create lift in equities while weaker copper will sink stocks. The imminent turn notation is in the title line. If CPER drops below 17.77 (say a -0.3% drop in copper futures), and if the SPX drops below 2801 and trends lower, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. So bears need lower copper futures and S&P 500 index futures and they will be good to go. Bulls must push copper and banks higher with all their might.

3/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/19; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/19; 9:00 AM EST =
3/24/19; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +69
3/22/19; 12:42 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68

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