Tuesday, February 4, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips long a few minutes after the opening bell at SPX 3288. The bulls goose the banks, retail stocks and chips resulting in euphoric upside glory. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 27 points above the signal line. The choppy whippy market action continues.

Volatility is the odd man out. The VIX remains in the bear camp. Thus, to continue the stock market joy, the bulls must push the VIX below 13.93. Stocks can rally all they want but if the VIX does not go under 13.93, the bulls got nothing, and the stock market will roll over to the downside again. If VIX goes sub 13.93, it is nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead and Fed Chairman Powell will be carried around on adoring trader's shoulders to celebrate.

The bears need to pull one of the following three parameters back into their camp to stop the rally. Bears need RTH below 119.90, XLF below 30.26 and/or SOX under 1823. 

On the last trade, that ran for three days, the algo program and actual trading each lose a percent. The benchmark SPX is up a couple percent this year with the actual trading generated by Keybot up about +8% thus far this year. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw pricing action.

The bulls turned the tables on the bears this morning thanks to the PBOC promising endless supplies of easy money to pump stocks higher. Whoa. The SPX is up 51 points, +1.6% to 3300. Ding, ding. Sound the Seven Trumpets!

2/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =
2/4/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +29; go long 3288; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +0.7%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +7.8%)
2/3/20; 3:41 PM EST = +8; signal line is +28
2/3/20; 3:36 PM EST = +24; signal line is +30
2/3/20; 3:29 PM EST = +40; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
2/3/20; 3:18 PM EST = +24; signal line is +31
2/3/20; 3:10 PM EST = +40; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
2/3/20; 1:55 PM EST = +24; signal line is +32
2/3/20; 1:43 PM EST = +40; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
2/3/20; 1:18 PM EST = +24; signal line is +33
2/3/20; 12:52 PM EST = +40; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
2/3/20; 12:38 PM EST = +24; signal line is +34
2/3/20; 12:24 PM EST = +40; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
2/3/20; 11:41 AM EST = +24; signal line is +35
2/3/20; 9:43 AM EST = +40; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
2/3/20; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +35
2/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +8; signal line is +35
1/31/20; 1:15 PM EST = +8; signal line is +37
1/31/20; 10:05 AM EST = +24; signal line is +39
1/31/20; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
1/31/20; 9:39 AM EST = +40; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
1/31/20; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
1/30/20; 3:01 PM EST = +40; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
1/30/20; 2:15 PM EST = +24; signal line is +39
1/30/20; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +40
1/30/20; 11:24 AM EST = +24; signal line is +42
1/30/20; 10:50 AM EST = +8; signal line is +43
1/30/20; 10:40 AM EST = +24; signal line is +46; go short 3250; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +1.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +9.0%)

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