STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The bulls pumped copper higher yesterday to create stock market joy. Generally, if the SPX moves above 2891, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX will begin the US trading session in 5 hours at 2848. Thus, the bulls need 43 upside points. The S&P futures are currently up +34 so the bulls are knocking at the door.

The problem for the bulls is that a slow gradual move higher would be far better than a gap-up open. If the gap-up open occurs, it will likely trigger a gap timer that prevents Keybot from flipping until about 90 minutes has passed. So the price action around 11 AM EST today may be interesting to watch.

As mentioned, the bulls need SPX 2891 and higher to flip the model long. Lower volatility would also help. Bulls need the VIX below 31.80 to prove and verify that they can take stocks higher.

Bears need to prevent SPX 2891 and they will be fine. Bears need to pull copper back into their camp and they will try to pull CPER below 14.83 which represents about a -0.666% drop in copper futures; which are currently up +1.1%. The big show is on tap tomorrow morning with the jobs report.

5/10/20; 7:00 PM EST =

5/8/20; 9:00 AM EST =

5/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = -37; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains short

5/4/20; 3:12 PM EST = -53; signal line is -46