Tuesday, July 21, 2020


Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is a point below the signal line wanting the model to flip short but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 3215, Keybot will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The S&P 500 begins the Tuesday session at 3252 so the bears have their work cut out for them needing a 37 point drop. The bulls throw up another barrier pumping the S&P futures up +19 about 7 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session. Nonetheless, it is on a silver platter for the bears if they want it.

Bulls must immediately push the NYA index above 12468 and/or UTIL above 827.83. Since the quant is in position to flips short, it likely will at any time any day ahead, unless the bulls immediately push one of these two parameters into the bull camp. If NYA or UTIL do not turn bullish, than the bulls are in big trouble and stocks will likely begin selling off.

Bears are in good shape now focused on driving the SPX price lower so they can seal the deal. Bears must keep the NYA and UTIL weak. Bears will benefit from weaker commodities and need GTX below 1686 which will send the stock market lower.

Note the failure in utes yesterday. This is uber important. The two key bull-bear lines in the sand for this week are 827.83 and 835.35. UTIL is at 817 in the bear camp. This behavior will create sustainable weakness in the stock market, if it continues. Next week, UTIL must remain below 823.98, call it 824, to keep the bear party alive. Thus, check to see how UTIL ends the week since above 824 signals that the bulls will fight back next week while a close this week below 824 signals trouble next week for equities.

The quant wants to flip short but needs the SPX below 3215. Bulls need a stronger NYA index and stronger utilities to save the day. Bears will growl loudly if commodities weaken.

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/20; 10:18 AM EST = +26; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
7/20/20; 10:03 AM EST = +12; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
7/20/20; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
7/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +25

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