STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears made a run at it on Thursday morning but performed a faceplant. The Federal Reserve and Congress keep promising limitless money. The Fed places its knee on the neck of volatility holding it low to the ground so stocks catapult higher. The SPX launched 22 points in the last 8 minutes of trading on Friday. Chips are pushed higher which also carries the broad stock market higher along with lower volatility. The bull orgy party sends the SPX to 3974.54 a new all-time closing high by only 42 pennies although it fell short of setting a new record intraday high.

You always dance with the lady that you brought to the party, no gentlemen would do otherwise, so the likely culprits that would precipitate a reversal would be weaker chips and higher volatility. The copper joy may also end. Bears need SOX below 2995, CPER below 24.28 (a drop in copper futures of about -3.2%) and/or VIX above 22.75.

Any 1 of the 3 parameters flipping bearish will immediately halt the rally in stocks and the caution flag would be out. If any 2 of the three parameters flip bearish, the imminent turn to the short side would be in play, and Keybot will be champing at the bit to go short, and, if the SPX loses 3917 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Also, if 1 parameter flips bearish, and then back to bullish, then maybe a half hour or hour later back to bearish again, rinse and repeat, oscillating above and below the bull-bear numbers, jogging, that would hint that the bears are trying to set things up short. Also, if all 3 parameters fail, the quant will likely immediately flip short.

Bulls are on easy street cruising higher. If the 3 parameters remain bullish the bulls will kick back and enjoy a stock market that floats higher. The rally in utilities is hugely important for the stock market. It takes the intermediate and long-term stock market weakness somewhat off the table. Bears need UTIL below 857.26 (now at 874). If UTIL loses 857, consider that to be an extremely negative development. If UTIL remains above 857, it is looking good for bulls through summer.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week Tuesday morning, hump day evening and Friday morning. The month of March ends on Wednesday, EOM, and the first quarter ends, EOQ1, so the year is already 25% over with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing and the US fourth wave underway. Chips, volatility, copper and utes are the only parameters impacting stock market direction currently. You can sprinkle in some commodities as well.

4/4/21; 7:00 PM EST =
4/2/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/21; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +62
3/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +82; signal line is +61
3/26/21; 9:52 AM EST = +80; signal line is +59
3/25/21; 11:21 AM EST = +64; signal line is +57
3/25/21; 10:55 AM EST = +50; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
3/24/21; 3:52 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo is potentially set up to flip short. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

Bulls desperately need to pull the chips back into their camp. Bulls need SOX above 2979 to save the day, stop the selling, and resume the rally.

Bears need either weaker utilities, weaker copper or higher volatility. Bears need UTIL below 855.10, CPER below  24.15 and/or VIX above 22.87, respectively. If any 1 of these 3 parameters flip bearish, and the SPX drops below 3889 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX begins at 3889 and S&P futures are tanking -15 points.

Copper futures need to fall about -2.8% to cause serious stock market selling and the red metal is down -2.2% right now. The bears are pushing. The VIX is at 21.87 and rising, no, check that 21.89. It looks like the bears are going to make a run for it at the opening bell. Will dip buyers show up or will the market be flushed lower?

Watch utilities, copper, volatility and semiconductors; these are the only four parameters that matter today. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

3/28/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/26/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/24/21; 3:52 PM EST = +64; signal line is +54
3/24/21; 9:47 AM EST = +80; signal line is +52
3/24/21; 9:37 AM EST = +64; signal line is +49
3/23/21; 11:46 AM EST = +80; signal line is +47
3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +44
3/19/21; 10:26 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43
3/19/21; 10:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +41
3/19/21; 9:57 AM EST = +64; signal line is +40
3/19/21; 9:46 AM EST = +48; signal line is +38
3/18/21; 9:58 AM EST = +64; signal line is +37
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +36
3/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. As you can see, the fight is at the UTIL 856.13 bull/bear line in the sand previously mentioned. Price is at 858.93 right now after testing the critical 856.13 area. UTIL punched up through 856.13 which creates the broad stock market joy. Also, the chips. SOX jumps above its 2985 line in the sand creating a happy tech sector and stock market. The bulls are running with the algo number 47 points above the signal line.

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time high at 3981.04.

Bears got nothing unless UTIL 856.13 fails and/or if SOX fails below 2985 and/or if VIX pops above 23.96. Any 1 of these 3 will stop the upside rally.

Utilities are a key tell on the intermediate term so if UTIL loses 856, view that as extremely bearish for the stock market. If UTIL then drops lower and loses the 825-826 level, it would be lights-out for stocks.

UTIL is at 858.80. SOX is at 3104. VIX is at 19.37. Utes would likely be first to fall so kick back until UTIL 856.13 occurs; then you will know trouble is starting.

3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/15/21; 3:59 PM EST = +80; signal line is +33
3/15/21; 2:34 PM EST = +64; signal line is +32
3/15/21; 1:15 PM EST = +80; signal line is +31
3/15/21; 9:56 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 19 points above the signal line. Chips are weak despite the stock market moving higher. Bulls need stronger semiconductors and utilities to keep the upside party going. Bears need weaker utilities and retail stocks and higher volatility.

Bulls need UTIL above 856 and/or SOX above 2978 and the upside party will be in full swing.

Bears need UTIL below 825.55 which will usher-in stock market misery. Bears also need RTH below 157.45 and VIX above 23.96. VIX is trading at 21.77 right now. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If 2 of the 3 flip bearish and the SPX drops below 3915 trending lower, Keybot would likely flip short.

The quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning. 

3/21/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/12/21; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/11/21; 11:04 AM EST = +64; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algorithm remains active this week. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 36 points above the signal line. The Shiny Happy People keep buying stocks with reckless abandon. Chips and retail stocks are pumped higher to created the buoyant stock market.

For bulls to keep moving higher, they need stronger utilities. Bulls have their chests puffed-out since most parameters are in the bull camp and the happy sentiment is strong and euphoric.

Bears need weaker chips, retail stocks and utilities while pushing volatility higher. Bears likely need at least 3 of the 4 to flip into the bear camp to flip Keybot short. Watch the SOX 2980 and RTH 157.45 lines in the sand. If they fail, it tells you the bears are growling and want to have another go at taking the market down. VIX 23.98 will also signal trouble ahead. VIX is trading at 22.50 a couple hours before the opening bell, only one handle away, with S&P futures down -16.

Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell. 

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/11/21; 11:04 AM EST = +64; signal line is +28
3/11/21; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
3/10/21; 3:19 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
3/10/21; 2:39 PM EST = +48; signal line is +28
3/10/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
3/10/21; 9:53 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/9/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29; go long 3882; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +3.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +7.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 3882. Bulls pump utilities higher and drag volatility lower creating a big stock market rally. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only a measly 3 points above the signal line.

Bears need higher volatility or they got nothing. VIX is trading at 23.49 right now with S&P futures up +4, about 3 hours in front of the bell on Wall Street. Bears need VIX above 24.05 to create stock market weakness so this is only 56 cents away. The stock market remains a toss-up moving through choppy slop.

UTIL regaining the critical 825.55 line in the sand, the trap-door is bigtime. This failure told you that the selloff in stocks was long lasting many weeks if not months ahead. The bulls knew the seriousness of the situation so they pumped UTIL to 831 to save the day. However, that is only a 5 point difference which is nothing. If UTIL becomes soggy again, and the trap-door at 825.55 opens again, she is likely not coming back. It will tell you that the path ahead is going to become very rocky. Conversely, if UTIL remains above 825.55, it will be Fed wine and roses all day long every day forward.

If either UTIL or VIX turn bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3852, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side. 

Bulls will benefit from stronger retail stocks such as AMZN. Bulls also win with higher chips. It will be off to the races for stocks if SOX moves above 2975, if not, that tells you that trouble will be returning. 

Bears will benefit from weaker copper. Bulls win with RTH above 157.25 and/or SOX above 2975 while bears win with VIX above 24.05 and UTIL below 825.55.

On the last trade, which ran for a couple weeks, the quant program lost a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant lost -2.5%. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500, which is the US stock market, the SPX, is up +3.4%. The quant program is up +4% and the actual trading is up +7% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. Watch for a potential whipsaw back to the short side. 

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/9/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29; go long 3882; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +3.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +7.0%)
3/9/21; 9:56 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
3/9/21; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +31
3/8/21; 3:57 PM EST = +2; signal line is +33
3/8/21; 12:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +35
3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +37
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +39
3/3/21; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +42
3/3/21; 2:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +44
3/3/21; 2:27 PM EST = +2; signal line is +47
3/3/21; 7:34 AM EST = +18; signal line is +49
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +52
2/25/21; 11:52 AM EST = +18; signal line is +53
2/25/21; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +54
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +34; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:16 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 8:50 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51; go short 3849; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +9.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are in charge of the stock market direction currently with the algo number 35 points below the signal line. It is surprising with the rally on Friday that the algo number did not gain ground higher. Bears need weaker banks and copper to create more downside pressure. These two sectors are very strong.

The US Senate approves the $1.9 trillion Christmas package so the week ahead will either show upside celebration or a sell-the-news event, or both.

Volatility, chips and utes are the Three Stooges controlling the stock market show right now. Bulls need either VIX below 24.20, SOX above 2985 and/or UTIL above 824.30. All three are in striking range and if the three flip the model will likely flip long immediately. You can gauge the strength in the stock market with these parameters.

If all three remain bearish and the banks and copper weaken, the next big leg lower in the stock market will begin. If 1 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, any one would do, the stock market selling will immediately stop and stocks will stabilize. Consider the caution flag out if this occurs. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, and that would likely be vol and semi's, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play and if the SPX moves above 3852 trending higher, Keybot will likely flip long. As mentioned, if all 3 parameters turn bullish, Keybot will likely flip long immediately.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +37
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +39
3/3/21; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +42
3/3/21; 2:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +44
3/3/21; 2:27 PM EST = +2; signal line is +47
3/3/21; 7:34 AM EST = +18; signal line is +49
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild snap-back rally to begin the week. Volatility drops so stocks pop. VIX fell through the key 24.21 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls throw confetti.

Utilities are jammed higher but bulls are unable to push UTIL back up through the trap-door at 824.20. Also, the bull party was in full swing but retail stocks decided to stay in the bear camp with RTH remaining under 158.80.

So the stage remains set. If either UTIL or RTH turn bullish, either one would do, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be in play and if SPX then runs above 3915 heading higher, Keybot will likely flip long. Tuesday is a huge day.

Bears need VIX above 24.21 or they got nothing. Bears must wrestle the Fed's jackboot from Uncle Vix's throat and allow VIX to jump up which would send stocks lower.

Thus, the bears path to victory is higher volatility and VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. The bulls need higher utilities and/or retail stocks (think AMZN) to carry the stock market to victory and flip the model to the long side.

Volatility, retail stocks and utilities are all that matter; they alone dictate stock market direction for Tuesday.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51