STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 3882. Bulls pump utilities higher and drag volatility lower creating a big stock market rally. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only a measly 3 points above the signal line.

Bears need higher volatility or they got nothing. VIX is trading at 23.49 right now with S&P futures up +4, about 3 hours in front of the bell on Wall Street. Bears need VIX above 24.05 to create stock market weakness so this is only 56 cents away. The stock market remains a toss-up moving through choppy slop.

UTIL regaining the critical 825.55 line in the sand, the trap-door is bigtime. This failure told you that the selloff in stocks was long lasting many weeks if not months ahead. The bulls knew the seriousness of the situation so they pumped UTIL to 831 to save the day. However, that is only a 5 point difference which is nothing. If UTIL becomes soggy again, and the trap-door at 825.55 opens again, she is likely not coming back. It will tell you that the path ahead is going to become very rocky. Conversely, if UTIL remains above 825.55, it will be Fed wine and roses all day long every day forward.

If either UTIL or VIX turn bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3852, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side. 

Bulls will benefit from stronger retail stocks such as AMZN. Bulls also win with higher chips. It will be off to the races for stocks if SOX moves above 2975, if not, that tells you that trouble will be returning. 

Bears will benefit from weaker copper. Bulls win with RTH above 157.25 and/or SOX above 2975 while bears win with VIX above 24.05 and UTIL below 825.55.

On the last trade, which ran for a couple weeks, the quant program lost a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant lost -2.5%. On the year, the benchmark S&P 500, which is the US stock market, the SPX, is up +3.4%. The quant program is up +4% and the actual trading is up +7% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. Watch for a potential whipsaw back to the short side. 

3/14/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/12/21; 10:00 AM EST =
3/9/21; 10:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29; go long 3882; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +3.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +7.0%)
3/9/21; 9:56 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
3/9/21; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +31
3/8/21; 3:57 PM EST = +2; signal line is +33
3/8/21; 12:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +35
3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST = +2; signal line is +37
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +39
3/3/21; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +42
3/3/21; 2:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +44
3/3/21; 2:27 PM EST = +2; signal line is +47
3/3/21; 7:34 AM EST = +18; signal line is +49
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51
2/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +52
2/25/21; 11:52 AM EST = +18; signal line is +53
2/25/21; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +54
2/24/21; 10:21 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:41 AM EST = +34; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 9:16 AM EST = +48; signal line is +53
2/24/21; 8:50 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 1:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +52
2/23/21; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +51; go short 3849; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +4.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +9.5%)