Keybot the quant remains short after the Federal Reserve raises the key rate a half-point. Fed Chairman Powell takes the 75-bip hikes off the table so his comments are viewed as dovish and voila, stocks experience an orgy rally.
The Fed tries to maintain its jackboots on the throat of volatility and despite the wild over 100-point gain in the SPX after the announcement, the VIX remains bearish. Volatility is a metric that should have turned bullish for that magnitude of orgy.
Bears remain in control of the US stock market with the algo number 50 points below the signal line.
The quant has been quiet for over a week. Last week it did not print any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number. This week Keybot has not printed any numbers either. Status quo. Technical damage remains in play despite yesterday's happy day.
Chips and volatility tell you if the rally has legs going forward. Bulls need SOX above 3187 (now at 3164) so any semiconductor news is uber importante. Bulls need VIX below 24.64 (now at 26.07 with S&P futures down -20). Even if these 2 parameters flip into the bull camp, Keybot the Quant may still not flip long. The NYA index will come into play if chips and volatility extend the rally.
The bears simply need to prevent the chips and volatility from turning bullish and that will guarantee more stock market misery ahead.
5/8/22;
7:00 PM EST =
5/6/22;
9:00 AM EST =
5/1/22;
7:00 PM EST EOM = -19; signal line is +31
4/26/22;
10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +33
4/24/22;
7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +35
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