STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only 2 points above the signal line. The quant is very active on Friday into today.  The main battle for stock market direction is the commodities versus the retail stocks. Very simply, the bulls need GTX above 3615.80 and the bears need RTH below 161.40. Who will  win?

GTX was in the bull camp this morning and just stumbled into the bear camp so watch it closely. You can watch $GTX on stockcharts.com. If GTX turns bullish again that will hint at more upside in stocks ahead. The stock market will start falling apart if retail stocks turn bearish.

Bulls would also benefit if VIX drops below 25.80. It would be off to the races for stocks. If VIX remains above 25.80, it tells you that stocks are going to remain weak and the rally will fizzle. Stocks typically rally into the Fed decision on Wednesday.

For now, the caution flag remains out. If RTH loses 161.40, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be on the table.

11/6/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/4/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/22; 11:03 AM EST = -34; signal line is -36
10/31/22; 9:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is -37
10/31/22; 3:06 AM EST = -34; signal line is -38
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -39
10/28/22; 3:34 PM EST = -20; signal line is -40
10/28/22; 2:53 PM EST = -34; signal line is -42
10/28/22; 2:32 PM EST = -20; signal line is -43
10/28/22; 1:44 PM EST = -34; signal line is -44
10/28/22; 1:37 PM EST = -20; signal line is -45
10/28/22; 10:14 AM EST = -34; signal line is -46
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -47
10/28/22; 9:59 AM EST = -20; signal line is -48
10/28/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -49
10/26/22; 10:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -50
10/26/22; 9:39 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -53
10/24/22; 11:31 AM EST = -32; signal line is -54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls could not get copper to cooperate so they jump on the retail horse and ride that to the Vault of Heaven. The quant is now tracking banks, retail stocks and copper as the three drivers of stock market direction currently.

Watch XLF 32.03, RTH 160.70 and CPER 21.00. Banks took off higher today pumping the stock market higher along with retail stocks. Bulls need XLF and RTH to remain in their camp and must pull copper to the bull side to create more oomph in stocks. VIX below 26.07 will also help bulls.

Bears need to keep copper and volatility in their camp and pull either XLF or RTH to the bear side. Either one would stop the stock market rally.

Bears need to stab banks and retail stocks to create negativity. Bulls must exalt copper and crush volatility if they want to send stocks strongly higher.

The bulls rule the roost with the algo number 22 points above the signal line trying to pull up and away. The caution flag remains out since the stock market remains erratic and unstable.

10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/24/22; 11:31 AM EST = -32; signal line is -54
10/24/22; 9:59 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/24/22; 9:44 AM EST = -32; signal line is -55
10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side on Friday afternoon at SPX 3742. It is interesting that it was at 2 PM EST-ish the same time as the flip to the short side the day before. The stock market remans a coin toss reacting to Fed  comments.

Banks and copper matter as mentioned in the prior post, and the Friday action was at XLF 32.03 (now at 32.19) and CPER 21.00 (now at 20.98). The banks crept higher on Friday then whammo, once the financials jumped into the bull camp, it was up, up and away with the stock market. Copper, however, could not make it up the bull hill with CPER stalling only 2 pennies from complete bull victory.

Thus, as copper goes, so goes the stock market. Copper futures are trading...... drum roll please ...... flatter than a newlywed's soufflé, so the red metal is not tipping its hand as yet.

Bulls must maintain the strength in banks so watch XLF in the pre-market. GS, BAC, JPM, C, WFC, etc..., will tell you what the banks are doing.

The algo number is  only 8 points above the signal line so the bulls are not safe by any means. A whipsaw occurs on Friday so another may occur Monday. Bulls must keep XLF above 32.03 and push CPER above 21.00 and it will be smooth sailing for the relief rally.

Bears must keep copper futures negative overnight and push XLF below 32.03 on Monday to create negativity and  send the stock market lower again.

On the last trade that lasted a big 6-1/2 hours, the quant's program lost a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant lost -4.4%. Ouchie. That was one heck of a reversal a rare event. The SPX benchmark  is down -22% this year and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +39% for a 61 percentage point outperformance. Keybot exited SDS and entered SPY dropping down into the single 1x ETF's for at least the next 30 days to reduce risk. The whipsaw triggers the robot to draw from the 1x ETF que since there may be a very choppy period ahead for 1 to 4 weeks. Choppy markets are chop suey chewing up and spitting out 2x ETF positions long or short.

Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The month ends the following Monday, 10/31/22, on Halloween. A kid at the Halloween party provided for disadvantaged youngsters told Keystone to take his mask off but he wasn't wearing one.

10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56
10/21/22; 3:05 PM EST = -48; signal line is -57
10/21/22; 2:22 PM EST = -64; signal line is -57 but algorithm remains long
10/21/22; 2:09 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56; go long 3742; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -4.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +39.2%)
10/20/22; 2:12 PM EST = -64; signal line is -56; go short 3661; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +28.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +43.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon at SPX 3661. Banks gave up the ghost so stocks go south. Bulls need XLF above 32.00 and CPER above 21.00 to reconstruct a rally. Today we see what the bears got.

On the last trade, that ran for only one week, the algo program gains a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +2%. For the year thus far, now into Q4, the benchmark SPX is down -23%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +28% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a huge 44% this year outperforming the benchmark by 67 percentage points and likely outperforming all hedge funds on Wall Street or otherwise, or any funds for that matter. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's.

10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/22; 2:12 PM EST = -64; signal line is -56; go short 3661; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +28.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +43.6%)
10/19/22; 11:39 AM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long
10/19/22; 11:17 AM EST = -48; signal line is -54
10/19/22; 10:46 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long
10/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -54
10/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 9:48 AM EST = -64; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains long
10/13/22; 11:20 AM EST = -50; signal line is -52; go long 3620; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +9.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.3%)(Actual results this trade = +20.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +41.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with financials joining the bull party. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 7 points above the signal line.

Financials and retail stocks battle it out to dictate the path ahead for the stock market. Bulls must keep XLF above 32.07 and pull RTH above 160.72. Stocks will take another big leg higher if RTH tags 160.72.

Bears must keep RTH in the bear camp and pull XLF below 32.07 to create negativity. The caution flag remains out for now but it will disappear if RTH turns bullish.

10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the new week of trading. The algo number is 9 points below the signal line wanting the quant to flip back to the short side.

If the SPX fall below 3580, starting the week at 3583, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Only 3 points of downside sounds easy enough for the bears to quickly take back stock market control but S&P futures are trading higher up +11 Sunday evening in the States.

Bulls need to bring game to begin the new week. Bulls need stronger commodities, copper and banks to prove they are deserving of a stock market rally. Bulls need GTX above 3627, CPER above 21.10 and  XLF above 32.07, respectively. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish would be good enough to keep a rally going. Copper and banks need to rally about 3% to meet  the bull goal. Commodities remain key and GTX needs to rally only about +1% to keep the bulls in business.

The bulls will be in big trouble if S&P futures turn negative. The bears will be in trouble if GTX, CPER or XLF turns bullish. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long on Thursday just before munch time at SPX 3620. Commodities  win the day but thwack, today is a different story with commodities slapped lower. The quant wants to whipsaw back into the bear camp with the algo number 10 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch.

Commodities and copper are dictating US stock market direction currently. Also banks.

On the last trade, that ran for a month, the quant program gains +9% and the actual trading gains +20%. That is big time. Keybot the Quant was in SDS during the downfall, but is out of it now, and jumps into SSO the 2x long ETF. The SPX benchmark index is down -24% this year remaining in a bear market. The quant program is up +27% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up an astounding +42%. Keybot is outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark by 66 percentage points and smoking any hedge fund on Wall Street.

10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 9:48 AM EST = -64; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains long
10/13/22; 11:20 AM EST = -50; signal line is -52; go long 3620; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +9.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.3%)(Actual results this trade = +20.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +41.6%)
10/11/22; 2:35 PM EST = -64; signal line is -52
10/11/22; 1:30 PM EST = -50; signal line is -52 but algorithm remains short
10/11/22; 9:56 AM EST = -64; signal line is -51
10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
10/6/22; 10:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -49
10/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -48
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47
10/5/22; 1:30 PM EST = -64; signal line is -45
10/5/22; 12:42 PM EST = -50; signal line is -42
10/5/22; 12:15 PM EST = -64; signal line is -40
10/5/22; 11:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -38
10/3/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -37
10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -48; signal line is -35
9/30/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -34
9/27/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:38 AM EST = -50; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -33
9/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -32
9/23/22; 3:49 PM EST = -50; signal line is -32
9/23/22; 11:37 AM EST = -66; signal line is -31
9/23/22; 11:22 AM EST = -50; signal line is -30
9/23/22; 10:47 AM EST = -66; signal line is -29
9/23/22; 9:37 AM EST = -50; signal line is -27
9/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26
9/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26
9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -25
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -25
9/15/22; 2:54 PM EST = -50; signal line is -24
9/15/22; 2:37 PM EST = -34; signal line is -23
9/15/22; 2:07 PM EST = -50; signal line is -23
9/13/22; 1:49 PM EST = -34; signal line is -22
9/13/22; 1:33 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22 but algorithm remains short
9/13/22; 10:56 AM EST = -34; signal line is -21; go short 3987; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +18.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +21.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears pound away at the bulls. However, the quant is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 1 point above the signal line but other internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Remember the many posts about the utilities and the wrath they would bring? The utilities paint a dire picture for the United States stock market going forward on a long-term basis. The utes indicate that the bear market plans to stay around for a while. UTIL crashes down to 863 and needs to move above 974 to provide any help to bulls in creating a recovery in stocks. That is a tall order.

The quant is currently tracking commodities, copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility. There are a lot of moving parts. Bulls are trying to stabilize the stock market with commodities. GTX needs to remain above 3634 (now at 3721) to provide hope for bulls. If GTX fails at 3634, the stock market will take another leg lower.

If GTX remains in the bull camp, CPER, RTH and/or XLF need to rally about +4% each to help the bull cause. VIX needs to drop below 25.45 to signal the all-clear for bulls but it is trading above 32 right now. Copper futures are up +1.4%. This tells you that the bulls know what they need to do so they are trying to mount a comeback starting with pumping commodities and copper higher.

The quant wants to go long at the opening bell this morning to begin the new week of trading but there is a fly in the stock market soup. The SPX needs to rally above 3707 for Keybot the Quant to flip long that is a 67-point rally that would be needed today. Will it occur? S&P futures are down -12 as this is typed about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street so the bulls obviously have some work to to do.

Perhaps some sideways choppiness is in order as commodities, copper, retail and the banks battle one another to see who will rule the roost and take stocks in that direction. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
10/6/22; 10:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -49
10/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -48
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only one single hair below the signal line. The bulls have been partying this week and have success with pumping copper and commodities higher.

The bears are in charge but the bulls are knocking at the door. CPER must remain above 21.27 and it should since copper futures are up +0.9% currently. With copper in the bull camp, commodities are the next set up to go bullish and GTX rallied higher yesterday. GTX needs to move above 3623 to signal the all-clear for stocks. RTH above 163.65, XLF above 32.51 and VIX below 25.35 will also help the bulls.

S&P futures are down -27 points and the VIX is at 29.26 as this is typed 3 hours before the opening bell in the US for the regular session. A soggy start is on tap.

It looks like the bulls will have to do it with commodities and GTX. If copper remains in the bull camp, and GTX pops above 3623 and remains above, the imminent turn to the long side is in play. If GTX turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 3807, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Bulls are going to need about a 50-point turn around to the upside in futures if they want to bring game today and try and get the quant to flip.

10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47
10/5/22; 1:30 PM EST = -64; signal line is -45
10/5/22; 12:42 PM EST = -50; signal line is -42
10/5/22; 12:15 PM EST = -64; signal line is -40
10/5/22; 11:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -38
10/3/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -37
10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -48; signal line is -35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utilities were the final nail in the stock market's coffin last week. It is remarkable that UTIL actually fell to that 888 number called out in the previous post (before it happened). It did not appear likely days before. The stock market did not wait around for this week instead flushing all equities lower as the utes crumbled.

Utilities will continue adding to the stock market malaise this week unless the bulls can push UTIL back above 954 and then 977. It is a tall order starting from 888.

Bears are in control. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line which is not as much of an advantage for the bears as would be expected considering the market carnage. Bulls need higher utilities and commodities and lower volatility. OPEC is cutting supplies so oil prices will rise boosting commodities.

Keystone prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell.

10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = 
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = 
10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -48; signal line is -35
9/30/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -34
9/27/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:38 AM EST = -50; signal line is -33