STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears pound away at the bulls. However, the quant is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 1 point above the signal line but other internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Remember the many posts about the utilities and the wrath they would bring? The utilities paint a dire picture for the United States stock market going forward on a long-term basis. The utes indicate that the bear market plans to stay around for a while. UTIL crashes down to 863 and needs to move above 974 to provide any help to bulls in creating a recovery in stocks. That is a tall order.

The quant is currently tracking commodities, copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility. There are a lot of moving parts. Bulls are trying to stabilize the stock market with commodities. GTX needs to remain above 3634 (now at 3721) to provide hope for bulls. If GTX fails at 3634, the stock market will take another leg lower.

If GTX remains in the bull camp, CPER, RTH and/or XLF need to rally about +4% each to help the bull cause. VIX needs to drop below 25.45 to signal the all-clear for bulls but it is trading above 32 right now. Copper futures are up +1.4%. This tells you that the bulls know what they need to do so they are trying to mount a comeback starting with pumping commodities and copper higher.

The quant wants to go long at the opening bell this morning to begin the new week of trading but there is a fly in the stock market soup. The SPX needs to rally above 3707 for Keybot the Quant to flip long that is a 67-point rally that would be needed today. Will it occur? S&P futures are down -12 as this is typed about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street so the bulls obviously have some work to to do.

Perhaps some sideways choppiness is in order as commodities, copper, retail and the banks battle one another to see who will rule the roost and take stocks in that direction. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
10/6/22; 10:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -49
10/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -48
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47