STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears are starting to scratch at the bull's door. Commodities were weak yesterday and that sogginess follows through this early Friday morning. The bulls are in charge but their lead is lessening with the algo number only 22 points above the signal line.

Typically, a 22-point separation means the current trend will continue but there could be a big push lower today so the imminent turn notation is placed in the title line. Stock market direction is currently controlled by copper, commodities, banks and utilities. That's a motley crew. Motley Crue.

Copper is in the bull camp creating lift to stocks. Bears need CPER below 23.59 which represents a -1.7% drop in copper futures that are now down -1.6%. The bears want to turn the red metal negative to create market negativity.

Commodities are in the bear camp creating market sogginess. Bulls need GTX above 3283 to stop the stock market selling.

Banks are bullish but teasing the critical bull/bear line at XLF 32.75. XLF begins today at 32.88 only pennies away from failure (0.4%). XLF drops -0.5% in the pre-market to 32.72 so the banks are set up to fail today with the opening bell less than 4 hours away.

Utilities are a mixed bag. Bulls need UTIL above 954 to create big upside in stocks but price is at 917. For next week, UTIL 923 is also a critical bull/bear line in the sand. Watch the 923 like a hawk today. If UTIL ends the week below 923, that spells trouble for next week for stocks beginning Monday morning. If UTIL finishes the week above 923, that hints that the stock market selling should not develop into something big.

Summing up the mumbo-jumbo, if both XLF drops below 32.75 and if CPER drops below 23.59, both are likely needed to turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 4360 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Bulls simply need to stop the deterioration in the banks and copper and they will be fine. Today will be interesting.

In early trading, XLF remains at 32.72 in failure, and copper futures are down to, wait for it,...... wait a bit longer for it ........ just a bit longer ........ -1.7%. It may be an exciting day ahead. Is the stock market livin' on a prayer?

6/25/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/22/23; 11:09 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
6/20/23; 2:33 PM EST = +46; signal line is +8