STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at the opening bell at SPX 5039. The upside orgy in stocks is so obscene it would make Caligula blush. How does it feel?

The quant wanted to flip back to the long side all this week. Monday was a holiday. The NVDA euphoria put things over the top today sending stocks into the stratosphere. Ground control to Major Tom.

But coming back down to Earth, the path ahead for the US stock market is dictated by utes and volatility. VIX 14.42 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Write that number on your forehead with a Sharpie. VIX begins trading, in the wee hours of tomorrow morning at 14.54, and will provide a heads-up on the day ahead. Volatility is in the bear camp now but only by 12 measly cents. Watch it like a hawk since bears win above VIX 14.42 and bulls win below 14.42.

The UTIL 838 palindrome is the key bull/bear line in the sand for this week and the bulls have managed to keep the utes buoyant now at 846. The stock market will drop if UTIL falls below 838 tomorrow and Keybot the Quant would also be in position to whipsaw back to the short side. That is easy enough to understand but the plot thickens.

The UTIL 838 becomes meaningless at 4 PM EST tomorrow and is replaced with 863.50 for all of next week. Thus, watch UTIL at the closing bell because a closing price below 863.50 spells big trouble for stocks next week. The bulls got work to do starting at 846 (bulls need a gain of 18 points in UTIL tomorrow to keep happy bull time going next week).

If UTIL drops below 838 tomorrow, and the SPX drops below 5039, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. If UTIL remains above 838 tomorrow but ends the week below 863.50, Keybot the Quant will be itching to go short next week which could occur Monday or Tuesday.

Interestingly, the bulls better bring game tomorrow since they need both the VIX to drop below 14.42 and UTIL to rally above 863.50 to guarantee that the bull party continues next week; otherwise, the Nvidia punchbowl will go empty.

For the last trade that ran for only one week, the quant program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses about -4%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up almost +6%, mainly on AI hype and the chip orgy and the expectation for an accommodative Fed. The Keybot the Quant algo program is dead flat on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent so far in 2024. It is another year of choppy, whipsaw slop. The quant exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Bears need UTIL below 838 and SPX below 5039 to whipsaw short again. Bulls need VIX below 14.42 that will signal further upside in stocks into the weekend. If VIX remains in the bear camp and UTIL closes below 863.50 tomorrow, there will be Hell to pay in US stocks next week.

For now, the bulls rule and this evening they are planning ways to force Uncle Vix's head to the floor. The ole codger keeps popping-up like a beach ball underwater. Maybe he has a baby's brain and an old man's heart.

2/25/24; 7:00 PM EST =
2/22/24; 2:21 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5039; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)
2/22/24; 3:06 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
2/20/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
2/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
2/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
2/16/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
2/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
2/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 3:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 10:56 AM EST = +2; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
2/13/24; 2:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 4939; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Tuesday afternoon at SPX 4939 and remains short after today's relief rally. Volatility, copper, commodities and utes are all that matter. Nothing Else Matters.

Copper futures need to rally about +2% to help the bull case for stocks and this may be a hard sell. Keep an eye on it and if you see copper jump higher, the fix will be in and more upside in stocks ahead. The guess is that copper will remain in the bear camp creating a pall across the stock market but the robot only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell.

Volatility finally spiked. The corrupt Fed's jackboot slipped off Uncle Vix's neck so he rises up from the dirty linoleum floor. The quant is tracking VIX 14.59 as the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 14.38 in the bull camp creating lift in stocks (volatility moves inversely to the stock market). Thus, watch volatility tomorrow morning. If the VIX moves above 14.59 and remains above, the US stock market will deteriorate. Stock market bulls will be fine if the VIX remains below 14.59 moving lower.

Commodities are also dancing on the bull/bear tightrope at GTX 3461 with price at 3486 only a bushel of beans away. If commodities fail, it will be lights out for stocks.

Utilities are warning of bad things coming for US stocks. UTIL 860 is a key bull/bear line in the sand this week. Price is at 833 firmly in the bear camp creating weakness in the stock market. Next week, the 860 is meaningless and replaced with the 838 palindrome. This is why price is hanging around the 830's like the single office guys hanging around pretty Emily the new administrative assistant. Watch UTIL as the week ends to see if it finishes above or below next week's 838 line in the sand. If UTIL finishes below 838 on Friday afternoon, there will be Hell to pay in stocks come Monday morning. Bulls will have hope if UTIL finishes the week above 838.

Is all that clear as mud? Whittling it down, the quant likely needs to see either CPER above 23.50 and/or UTIL above 860 for the bulls to regain control of the stock market. This may be a tough row to hoe.

The bears need either VIX above 14.59 and/or GTX below 3461 to lock-in the downside for US stocks going forward. One turning bearish will be big trouble and both turning sour will send the bulls running for their lives.

VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Check VIX in the morning to find out the path ahead. Check GTX after the US opens. Check UTIL on Friday at 4 PM EST and you will already know what is going to happen next week. Easy-peazy.

On the last trade, that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant each gain nearly +3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +3.5%, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each up a couple percent so far in 2024. The robot exits SPY and enters SDS moving back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired (the quant is taking on more risk).

It is Valentines Day so it is mandatory that you spend time with your pretty woman serenading her with Pretty Woman, practicing your growl. Mercy.

2/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/24; 3:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 10:56 AM EST = +2; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
2/13/24; 2:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 4939; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.4%)
2/13/24; 10:55 AM EST = +2; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/13/24; 10:44 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/13/24; 9:07 AM EST = +2; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 3:50 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
2/7/24; 12:17 PM EST = +18; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 11:05 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30
2/7/24; 10:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 10:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
2/7/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
2/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
1/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +48; signal line is +28
1/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
1/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
1/24/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
1/24/24; 10:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +26
1/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +25
1/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/22/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24; 1:46 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24; 1:36 PM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/19/24; 12:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +26; go long 4815; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = -0.3%)

SPX S&P 500 Prints Above 5,000 for the First Time in History on 2/8/24; SPX Closes Above 5K for the First Time Ever on 2/9/24 and Prints All-Time High at 5030.06; SPX Prints All-Time High at 5048.39 on 2/12/24

The SPX, S&P 500, US Stock Market, prints above 5,000 for the first time in history at 3:59 PM EST on Thursday, 2/8/24, during the last minute of trading for the session (US stock market closes at 4 PM EST).

However, the SPX did not close above 5K instead ending the day at 4998. The S&P 500 printed the highest number ever in history at SPX 5000.40.

Today, and the days ahead, will dictate if the S&P 500 can close above 5,000. S&P futures are flatter than a newlywed's souffle about 4 hours before the opening bell for the Friday session. Folks, it's a long way to the top if you wanna rock 'n roll.

Note Added on Friday, 2/9/24, at 7:17 PM EST: The SPX closes above 5,000 for the first time in history today ending the session, and week, at 5026.61 call it 5027. The S&P 500 logs 5 consecutive up weeks catapulting from 4700 to 5027 (+7%) during this run. In the last 15 weeks, 14 are up weeks and the SPX has launched from 4104 to 5027 (+22.5%). THE SPX HAS RALLIED +1.5% PER WEEK ON AVERAGE, EVERY WEEK, FOR THE LAST 15 WEEKS STRAIGHT. Wow! Keybot the Quant remains long. The highest print ever in history occurs at 2:46 PM EST today at 5030.06. She's up in nose-bleed territory now; the cheap seats where the birds nest. What goes up eventually comes back down. Will the Fed Let it Drop? Utilities are set up to fail out of the gate on Monday as per the Keybot the Quant robot so the bears may come to play next week. Utes, commodities and copper are all that matter right now.

Note Added 2/14/24: The SPX prints an all-time high at 5048.39 on 2/12/24 at 11:30 AM EST. The all-time closing high holds at 5026.61 on 2/9/24.