STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Tuesday afternoon at SPX 4939 and remains short after today's relief rally. Volatility, copper, commodities and utes are all that matter. Nothing Else Matters.

Copper futures need to rally about +2% to help the bull case for stocks and this may be a hard sell. Keep an eye on it and if you see copper jump higher, the fix will be in and more upside in stocks ahead. The guess is that copper will remain in the bear camp creating a pall across the stock market but the robot only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell.

Volatility finally spiked. The corrupt Fed's jackboot slipped off Uncle Vix's neck so he rises up from the dirty linoleum floor. The quant is tracking VIX 14.59 as the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 14.38 in the bull camp creating lift in stocks (volatility moves inversely to the stock market). Thus, watch volatility tomorrow morning. If the VIX moves above 14.59 and remains above, the US stock market will deteriorate. Stock market bulls will be fine if the VIX remains below 14.59 moving lower.

Commodities are also dancing on the bull/bear tightrope at GTX 3461 with price at 3486 only a bushel of beans away. If commodities fail, it will be lights out for stocks.

Utilities are warning of bad things coming for US stocks. UTIL 860 is a key bull/bear line in the sand this week. Price is at 833 firmly in the bear camp creating weakness in the stock market. Next week, the 860 is meaningless and replaced with the 838 palindrome. This is why price is hanging around the 830's like the single office guys hanging around pretty Emily the new administrative assistant. Watch UTIL as the week ends to see if it finishes above or below next week's 838 line in the sand. If UTIL finishes below 838 on Friday afternoon, there will be Hell to pay in stocks come Monday morning. Bulls will have hope if UTIL finishes the week above 838.

Is all that clear as mud? Whittling it down, the quant likely needs to see either CPER above 23.50 and/or UTIL above 860 for the bulls to regain control of the stock market. This may be a tough row to hoe.

The bears need either VIX above 14.59 and/or GTX below 3461 to lock-in the downside for US stocks going forward. One turning bearish will be big trouble and both turning sour will send the bulls running for their lives.

VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Check VIX in the morning to find out the path ahead. Check GTX after the US opens. Check UTIL on Friday at 4 PM EST and you will already know what is going to happen next week. Easy-peazy.

On the last trade, that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant each gain nearly +3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +3.5%, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each up a couple percent so far in 2024. The robot exits SPY and enters SDS moving back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired (the quant is taking on more risk).

It is Valentines Day so it is mandatory that you spend time with your pretty woman serenading her with Pretty Woman, practicing your growl. Mercy.

2/18/24; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/24; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/24; 3:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 10:56 AM EST = +2; signal line is +27
2/14/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
2/13/24; 2:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29; go short 4939; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +2.4%)
2/13/24; 10:55 AM EST = +2; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/13/24; 10:44 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/13/24; 9:07 AM EST = +2; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
2/11/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 3:50 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
2/7/24; 12:17 PM EST = +18; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 11:05 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30
2/7/24; 10:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 10:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
2/7/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
2/5/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
2/4/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
2/2/24; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
1/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +48; signal line is +28
1/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
1/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27
1/24/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
1/24/24; 10:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +26
1/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +25
1/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/22/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
1/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24; 1:46 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25
1/19/24; 1:36 PM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
1/19/24; 12:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +26; go long 4815; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = -0.3%)