STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 5249 as the quant's algo number explodes 34 points above the signal line. Traders are fed more unpalatable chop suey. This year is looking a lot like last year with the choppy whipsaw price action. Let's do the Twist, baby, like Chubby. Volatility drops so the bears are smacked in the teeth by a bull hoof. Pope Powell is sitting on Uncle Vix's head, like the Easter Bunny sitting on an egg, keeping volatility down on the floor so stocks can go up and everyone have a Happy Easter.

As the stock market makes new all-time record highs, the VIX is not dropping as would be expected. VIX is a touch above 13 when it should be at 9 to 11 considering the stock market. VIX should at least have an 11 or 12 handle. This divergence is important. However, what matters is the 1's and 0's and the quant identifies VIX 13.25 as the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 13.01 so bulls win and the bears fold like origami.

Buy programs entered in force during the last 65-minute trading segment yesterday at 2:55 PM EST (the day is divided into six (6) 65-minute periods). The robots were in charge executing big buy programs at 2:55 PM EST. Lots of moves are occurring here so watch 2:55 PM EST, give or take 5 or 10 minutes, to see if stocks take a sharp move up or down since that trend will likely maintain into the close. The market makers goosed stocks to get the +10.0% double-digit print to close out the quarter. Such is the crony capitalism system. Stocks typically rally the last couple days going into a 3-day holiday weekend.

During the late-day bull orgy, utilities, a major sector that has been lagging, leaps into action, like Popeye eating spinach, overtaking key levels. For the week ahead, UTIL 873.15 and 879.70 are uber important. Price begins at 882.24 above and bullish creating stock market joy. Bears need UTIL below 879.70 to stop the stock market rally and below 873.15 to reintroduce negativity. Bulls are fine if UTIL remains above 879.70.

For the week of 4/8/24, UTIL 881.67 and 879.70 (may be a few pennies higher or lower) are the two key bull/bear levels. Thus, UTIL must end the week ahead above 880-882 or there will be Hell to pay in stocks. The stock market is controlled by utes and volatility currently.

Bulls must keep VIX below 13.25 and UTIL above 873.15 and 879.70 to maintain the upside rally in the stock market. Bears need VIX above 13.25 and UTIL below 879.70 to get the downside rolling again. On Friday, 4/5/24 at 4:00 PM EST, UTIL must be above 880-882 or there will be trouble for US stocks going forward.

On the last trade, that ran during the holiday-shortened week, the quant and algo program each lose about a percent. For the year, with Q1 now cast in concrete, the benchmark S&P 500, the symbol SPX, the US stock market, is up +10.0%. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The four horseman of the financial apocalypse, the ECB, BOJ, PBOC and Fed, on the pale green horse, ride across the sky. The Keybot the Quant algo program and the actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent on the year so the SPX is outperforming the robot by 12% in 2024. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO.

VIX 13,25 and UTIL (DJU) 879.70 tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction. The markets are Dancing in the Dark like the Boss and Courteney as the Big Man plays his sax.

4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/28/24; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +28
3/28/24; 3:01 PM EST = +46; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27; go long 5249; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -2.1%)
3/27/24; 11:11 AM EST = +30; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/27/24; 10:28 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28
3/26/24; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
3/26/24; 3:51 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
3/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
3/25/24; 10:08 AM EST = +31; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
3/25/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +28; go short 5220; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 4220 at yesterday's opening bell so the choppy whipsaw slop continues. The robot is already champing at the bit to flip back to the long side with the algo number 2 points above the signal line.

Volatility is running the show these days. VIX 13.25 is the bull/bear line in the sand as identified by the quant and VIX is trading now, in real-time, at 13.06, no check that, 13.07. Thus, the bulls want control of the stock market back and the dip-buyers are helping out. Bears need 18 more cents higher in the VIX, otherwise, they got nothing and will fold like a cheap suit.

The bulls simply need to keep VIX sub 13.25 and trending lower and to send the SPX above 5229 to likely flip the quant long. S&P futures are up +21 so the bulls want the ball back so another whipsaw may be on tap after the opening bell. Interestingly, the pump higher in futures will likely trigger the gap-up timer and delay any flip to the long side by about 90 minutes. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, a potential flip to the long side may not occur, if it occurs, until after 11 AM EST. Time will tell.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program and actual trading are flat. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +9.4% this year a big start for the bulls. The Keybot the Quant algo program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down a percent so far this year. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

The VIX 13.25 line in the sand tells you everything. Bulls win below and bears above. Bears need weaker semiconductors, copper and commodities to get the ball rolling south for US stocks. For now, Fed Chairman Powell maintains his jackboot on the throat of volatility insuring that the US stock market remains buoyant and the crony capitalism system resilient.

VIX is at 13.06 so the bears need to eat their spinach and push volatility higher if they want Peter Cottontail to fill their basket with Easter eggs. The quant prints a pre-scheduled number this morning and another on Thursday morning. The first quarter trading ends on Thursday (EOQ1).

3/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/28/24; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/24; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/24; 10:08 AM EST = +31; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
3/25/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +28; go short 5220; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.2%)
3/25/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
3/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is +28
3/20/24; 3:29 PM EST = +31; signal line is +27; go long 5224; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 5224 after Pope Powell flaps dovish wings creating more record highs for stocks. Jerome has Uncle Vix in a headlock and then throws him to the floor. Powell lifts his pale green robe enough to keep his black jackboot on the throat of volatility guaranteeing stock market upside.

Recent days are a snooze-fest with the quant printing only pre-scheduled numbers until today when Pope Powell opened his mouth decreeing that stocks should rally more. Powell opened his arms releasing white doves as if it were a wedding.

Tomfoolery aside, the robot is tracking the VIX 13.31 palindrome as the key bull/bear line in the sand. In late trading today, VIX fell through 13.31 so it was off to the races with bullish traders buying with both fists. VIX 13.31 is the key stock market rudder currently. Very simply, stocks go up if VIX remains below 13.31. If VIX pops back above 13.31, the stock market will sell-off. Easy-peasy.

Utilities reman bearish with a weekly downtrend in place a harbinger of very bad things ahead for stocks (not a run of the mill -5% or -10% pullback but a -10% to -20% or more pullback). This window will likely remain open for a couple more weeks. Bulls need UTIL above the 874-882 range over the coming days and week or two to prove that more upside in the stock market can be accomplished, otherwise, it will likely indicate that the stock market is bigtime sick underneath with trouble ahead.

Commodities, copper, retail stocks, banks and chips are all in orgy town having a good ole time. Stocks are making record highs on the backs of these party sectors. Keybot is tracking SOX 4595 as the key bull/bear line in the sand; stocks would be toast if SOX 4595 fails.

So the bulls have a turn at bat again. The chop suey this year looks a lot like the whipsaw slop last year. It is obvious that the robot was idling along and markets were waiting on the Fed. Pope Powell rode out on his pale green horse today delivering more Fed wine for the punchbowl. Uncle Vix is trying to wrestle the Fed jackboot off his throat so he can get up off the floor again.

On the last trade that ran for a dozen trading days, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses -2.5% benefiting by some weakness in tech stocks (the loss could have been worse). On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up +10% and it is only March. The 'wealth effect' is in full force with the upper middle class and elite privileged out shopping, spending money and having a good ole time. The quant program is down a percent on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -1.5% so far this year a -11.0 percentage point difference in performance compared to the S&P 500 benchmark. Keybot has always redeemed itself from every deficit since it went on-line 15 years ago. Will it again? The quant exits QID and enters SSO remaining in the leveraged 2x ETF's.

All you have to do is watch the VIX 13.31 palindrome and it will tell you everything you need to know.

3/24/24; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/24; 3:29 PM EST = +31; signal line is +27; go long 5224; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)
3/20/24; 3:03 PM EST = +31; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
3/19/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/17/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/15/24; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/10/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/8/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25
3/5/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26; go short 5110; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side at yesterday's opening bell at SPX 5110. Volatility spiked higher in the early morning, and remains high, creating stock market negativity. VIX 13.68 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win below 13.68 and bears win above. VIX is trading at 14.04 in real-time so the bears have the bulls in a headlock as they struggle around the trading floor.

Pope Powell speaks today so that will create drama. Simply watch Uncle Vix today. If he can remain above 13.68, the bears will maintain the upper hand. If the VIX drops below 13.68 today, the bears will likely fold like a cheap suit.

Utilities, volatility, copper and commodities are driving US stock market direction currently. Utes are bearish and portend bad things coming down the pike. Volatility is described above.

For copper, the bears need CPER below 23.77 to prove they got game. Price is at 23.93. This represents a -0.7% drop in copper futures that are currently up +0.3% in real-time. Thus, bears need copper to drop -1% from the current price to usher in bigtime stock market negativity. Watch copper today to see if it pulls an intraday reversal to the downside, or not.

Commodities are also key with the bears needing GTX below 3482 to create doom and gloom. Price is at 3527 so about a -1% drop in commodities in general will create stock market negativity.

Keeping it simple, bears win going forward if copper and commodities weaken today. Bulls will win going forward if the VIX drops below 13.68.

On the last trade, that ran for almost 2 weeks, the quant program gains +1.4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +2.5%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up a big +7%. Everyone, including the shoeshine boy and Uber driver, are bullish placing entire paychecks in NVDA, MSFT and index ETF's. For 2024 thus far, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program and the actual trading are each up about a percent. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID.

VIX 13.68 will tell you if there will be Shiny Happy People or if we are on the Eve of Destruction.

3/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
3/8/24; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26; go short 5110; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.0%)
3/5/24; 4:20 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
3/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is +26
3/1/24; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +26
2/29/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +31; signal line is +26
2/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +25
2/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
2/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
2/23/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 2:21 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5039; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)