STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side at yesterday's opening bell at SPX 5110. Volatility spiked higher in the early morning, and remains high, creating stock market negativity. VIX 13.68 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win below 13.68 and bears win above. VIX is trading at 14.04 in real-time so the bears have the bulls in a headlock as they struggle around the trading floor.

Pope Powell speaks today so that will create drama. Simply watch Uncle Vix today. If he can remain above 13.68, the bears will maintain the upper hand. If the VIX drops below 13.68 today, the bears will likely fold like a cheap suit.

Utilities, volatility, copper and commodities are driving US stock market direction currently. Utes are bearish and portend bad things coming down the pike. Volatility is described above.

For copper, the bears need CPER below 23.77 to prove they got game. Price is at 23.93. This represents a -0.7% drop in copper futures that are currently up +0.3% in real-time. Thus, bears need copper to drop -1% from the current price to usher in bigtime stock market negativity. Watch copper today to see if it pulls an intraday reversal to the downside, or not.

Commodities are also key with the bears needing GTX below 3482 to create doom and gloom. Price is at 3527 so about a -1% drop in commodities in general will create stock market negativity.

Keeping it simple, bears win going forward if copper and commodities weaken today. Bulls will win going forward if the VIX drops below 13.68.

On the last trade, that ran for almost 2 weeks, the quant program gains +1.4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +2.5%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is up a big +7%. Everyone, including the shoeshine boy and Uber driver, are bullish placing entire paychecks in NVDA, MSFT and index ETF's. For 2024 thus far, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program and the actual trading are each up about a percent. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID.

VIX 13.68 will tell you if there will be Shiny Happy People or if we are on the Eve of Destruction.

3/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
3/8/24; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/24; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26; go short 5110; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.0%)
3/5/24; 4:20 AM EST = +17; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
3/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is +26
3/1/24; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +26
2/29/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +31; signal line is +26
2/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +31; signal line is +25
2/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
2/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
2/23/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 2:21 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
2/22/24; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +24; go long 5039; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +5.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.5%)