STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 5709 as Fed Chairman Powell was speaking. Volatility and commodities remain in the bear camp creating negativity while the banks and chips remain in the bull camp creating positivity in the stock market. The algo number is only 4 points below the signal line so the downside is not yet showing enthusiasm.

Bears need SOX below 5040 and/or XLF below 44.04 to verify the downside and begin the carnage. If these two metrics remain bullish, the bears will probably fold like a cheap suit and volatility will drop.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3.1%. For the year thus far with Q3 ending today, the benchmark SPX, that is the US stock market, is up about +20% this year. The bulls cheer their good fortune. The Keybot the Quant algo is up about +7% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +12% underperforming the benchmark by 8 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 8:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
9/26/24; 8:08 AM EST = +32; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 3:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
9/25/24; 12:48 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/25/24; 12:04 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
9/25/24; 11:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
9/25/24; 11:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28
9/25/24; 11:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26
9/25/24; 11:34 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24
9/25/24; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +22
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
9/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +17
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
9/23/24; 2:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
9/23/24; 1:55 PM EST = +34; signal line is +13
9/23/24; 12:04 PM EST = +18; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 11:56 AM EST = +34; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:42 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +10
9/23/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
9/23/24; 9:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +8
9/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +8
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/20/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/19/24; 9:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is +7
9/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:06 PM EST = +2; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5; go long 5612; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +9.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX trends lower and falls below 5727 (will start the new week at 5738), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, watch the S&P futures overnight to see if they are soggy by 11 points.

The battle for US stock market directional control is volatility and commodities in the bear camp creating negativity versus the banks and chips in the bull camp helping stocks to float higher and for the SPX to print a new all-time high at 5767 and new all-time closing high at 5745 on 9/26/24.

Bears need the SPX below 5727 and trending lower and they will take over control of the stock market. Bears need XLF below 44.04, which is about a -2.1% drop in the financials needed, and/or SOX below 5040, which is about a -3.4% loss in semiconductors needed to create more negativity. These two metrics turning bearish will create serious negativity and a lot of bearish price action but bears will have to bring their A game to reverse these high-flying sectors.

Bulls need VIX below 15.26. This was a key battle last week and will continue in the week ahead. Very simply, bulls win big going forward if the VIX loses 15.26 but bears will create market carnage the longer that the VIX remains above 15.26 especially if it begins moving higher (and Friday it did with the VIX near 17).

Bulls also need GTX above the 3553 palindrome to create more stock market upside that equates to about a +1% gain in broad commodities. 

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday, that is the end of the month (EOM) and quarter (EOQ3), and the other on Friday morning. Three-quarters of the year, 75%, is in the bag with the final 3 months of trading remaining in 2024.

Whittling the above mumbo-jumbo down to something simple, watch SPX 5727 and VIX 15.26. The bulls will create new all-time highs if VIX loses 15.26. Bears win big if VIX remains above 15.26 and if the SPX loses 5727. Easy-peasy. It's Easy like Sunday morning.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 3 points below the signal line. The bears are stretching their legs looking for something to slash. If the SPX trends lower and slips below 5721, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Bears do not want a gap-down move since this would delay any potential move to the short side for about 90 minutes. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5767.37 and a new all-time closing high at 5745.37. Thus, price needs to drop from 5745 to 5721 to flip the quant short a loss of only 24 points if watching S&P futures.

The VIX continues oscillating above and below the important 15.25 line in the sand. Lower volatility sends stocks higher and higher volatility sends stocks lower. The VIX is the rudder steering the stock market ship currently.

Bears need the SPX to drop below 5721 and then for chips and banks to weaken which will accelerate the downside for US stocks.

Bulls need to prevent the SPX from falling below 5721 and at the same time send the VIX below 15.25 that will guarantee upside victory going forward. Bulls will then focus on rallying commodities to create more upside.

SPX 5721 and VIX 15.25 will tell the stock market story tomorrow. Watch them like a hawk. Bears win big and the model flips short if the SPX loses 5721. Bulls win big if the VIX is pushed below 15.25.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 8:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
9/26/24; 8:08 AM EST = +32; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 3:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
9/25/24; 12:48 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/25/24; 12:04 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
9/25/24; 11:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
9/25/24; 11:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28
9/25/24; 11:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26
9/25/24; 11:34 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24
9/25/24; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +22
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
9/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +17
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Markets are running wild. "Big fine Daddy, please don't start runnin' wild," as Roy Brown sings about Big Town. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. The robot prints 11 numbers today to begin the week so something must be going on under the surface.

The bulls pumped the semiconductors today creating a new SPX all-time closing high at 5718.57 another all-time high bookended by the '57'. The SPX all-time intraday high, the highest number ever, remains at 5737.57. If all this holds, it will be the 'Ole Heinz 57 Top'.

SOX 5016.50 is the bull/bear line in the sand that will send the broad stock market one way or the other. SOX ended the Monday session at 5026 so the bulls are celebrating at the tavern slappin' each other's backs while drinking booze.

Interestingly, commodities turned bullish but in short order failed back into the bear camp. The GTX 3553 palindrome is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 3528 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility remains in the bear camp. Bulls need VIX below 15.26 to verify the stock market rally. If VIX remains above 15.26, it proves that the stock market rally was phony-baloney and will roll over and die.

Copper remains in play with bears needing CPER below 26.51 to create market mayhem.

The robot is focused on SOX 5016.50, GTX 3553 and VIX 15.26 as the three main drivers of stock market direction, currently; chips, commodities and volatility, respectively. SOX is creating upside market joy while GTX and VIX are creating stock market sogginess.

If SOX falls below 5016.50, and the SPX falls below 5704 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. What may be needed is a jog move with the chips to push the robot into going short. If you see SOX fall below 5016.50, but after 7 to 15 minutes, maybe more, it comes back above, again for about 7 to 15 minutes, maybe more, and then fails through the 5016.50, that will likely signal that the stock market is about to weaken and begin a broad down move.

VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so a drop below 15.26 in the early morning hours will mean that stocks will be off to the races higher in the US session. Stocks will remains flat or soggy if VIX remains above 15.26 overnight, and then you want to watch SOX after the opening bell. You can watch GTX on stock charts using '$GTX'.

Tuesday will be a decisive day. The VIX has dropped to where it is time to make the move on the 15.26 or go home. All 3 metrics are at key pivot points and whatever they do, the stock market will follow. I Will Follow Him by Peggy March.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
9/23/24; 2:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
9/23/24; 1:55 PM EST = +34; signal line is +13
9/23/24; 12:04 PM EST = +18; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 11:56 AM EST = +34; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:42 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +10
9/23/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
9/23/24; 9:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +8
9/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +8
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after Fed Chairman Powell pumps the stock market higher. The bulls are in control but the algo number is only 11 points above the signal line. The SPX prints the highest number in history on Thursday, 9/19/24, at 5733.57. It is the 'Heinz 57 varieties' all-time high.

Banks, copper and retail stocks were key to the stock market rally so the bears need these metrics to weaken if they want to regain control. Bears need CPER below 26.40 and/or RTH below 207.80 a formidable task.

Bulls have an easier road to maintain control of the stock market. Chips, commodities and volatility are in the bear camp and any of these metrics turning bullish will send stocks higher and higher. Bulls need SOX above 5018, GTX above 3556, and/or VIX below 15.09. Stocks will run into the stratosphere if all three turn bullish. Semiconductors need to gain about +0.4% and commodities about +1.0% which are much easier goals than the bear's path.

Watch copper and retail stocks. If they are weak, that will be a sign that the stock market is starting to roll over lower. If copper, retail stocks and banks remain strong, the bears got butpkis. If copper futures lose about -1.7%, and the SPX falls below 5674 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Consider the imminent turn to be in play if CPER loses 26.40, RTH loses 207.80, or if XLF loses 43.90.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Focus on copper and chips to make it simple. Bulls win big with stronger chips. Bears win big with weaker copper and retail stocks (AMZN). Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/20/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/19/24; 9:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is +7
9/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the quant flips to the long side on Friday morning at SPX 5612. The bulls retake the stock market market baton and run ahead with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. That is not saying much. The stock market is all over the map including sectors, indexes and individual tickers so do not be surprised if the robot whipsaws back to the short side. Goin' up, goin' down, goin' up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll, like Jimmy sings.

The banks started falling over the edge last hump day but a stick save occurred. This steadied stocks and then retail stocks were pumped hard giving the broad stock market a big push higher. Scamazon was up +9% last week. Interestingly, despite the upside orgy in stocks, pumped by retail stocks, banks and copper, the rally occurs without the chips or volatility. Extremely odd.

The quant is tracking four metrics that are controlling stock market direction currently. Financials and copper are in the bull camp creating the upside orgy. Semiconductors and volatility are in the bear camp asking why everyone is so happy?

To continue the stock market rally and print new record highs for the SPX above 5670, bulls need chips and volatility. Bulls need SOX above 5022 and VIX below 14.95. Any one of the two will send the SPX to its record high and both turning bullish will guarantee new all-time highs.

It is odd that the VIX remains in the bear camp despite the comeback rally. If VIX remains above 14.95, the rally is meaningless and will wither on the vine and fade, like past loves. For the big rally last week, and if you are bullish, you are worried that the VIX remains elevated and semi's have not fully recovered. The SOX only needs +0.8% more to turn bullish and provide fuel to the broad market so watch some chip names in the pre-market since they will tell you where SOX is headed.

The bears need weaker financials and copper. Bears need XLF below 43.52 and CPER below 26.32. Any one of the two will immediately stop the stock market rally and both will begin a more sustainable downside path for stocks.

CPER closed on Thursday exactly at the 26.32 the robot called out ahead of time. Copper continued its buoyancy on Friday providing the push higher for stocks. CPER ends the week at 26.40 only a whisker from the bear camp at 26.32. Watch copper futures overnight into Monday morning to see if they drop more than -0.3%, if so, stocks will be soggy with a downward bias. If copper futures are flat or higher, the bulls are coming to play again on Monday.

It's a coin-flip now for the stock market. The circus continues with Pope Powell riding in on his pale green horse on Wednesday to announce the big 25-bip, or maybe 50-bip, rate cut.

The caution flag is out since markets can change on a dime. If CPER loses 26.32, only a hair away, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 5602 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. 

Semi's, volatility, copper and banks are all that matter currently with copper at the top of the heap. Focus on these four and you will know where stocks are headed.

On the last trade, that ran for 10 days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. Whipsaw price action wreaks havoc on robots. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up almost +18%. The bulls are puffing their chests calling for the SPX to print over 6K this year. The Keybot the Quant program is up +5% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% underperforming the benchmark by 9 percentage points. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:06 PM EST = +2; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5; go long 5612; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +9.3%)
9/11/24; 12:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +4
9/11/24; 10:46 AM EST = -14; signal line is +5
9/11/24; 10:43 AM EST = +2; signal line is +7
9/11/24; 10:27 AM EST = -14; signal line is +7
9/9/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +9
9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
9/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = -14; signal line is +11
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
9/5/24; 12:40 PM EST = +2; signal line is +12
9/5/24; 12:20 PM EST = -14; signal line is +12
9/3/24; 2:04 PM EST = +2; signal line is +13; go short 5544; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 25 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising along after the collapse of the chips sector last week. Throw the dirty SOX into the laundry basket. Retail stocks next turned sour creating the drop in the overall stock market.

For the week ahead, the quant is currently tracking RTH 206.00 and XLF 43.31 as the two key metrics controlling stock market direction. RTH, retail stocks, are creating negativity in the stock market while the XLF, banks and financials, are creating positivity in equities.

Bears need the banks to falter to start kicking in some serious downside in US stocks. Bears need XLF to fall below 43.31, that is -2.3% from current levels, to create market mayhem. The US stock market will fall apart if the banks fail so watch individual names such as BAC, where Warren Buffett is ditching shares, GS, WFC, C, the usual suspects, to see if they start dropping -2% or -3%. That would spell serious trouble ahead.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks to stop the downward slide in US stocks. Bulls need RTH above 206.00, that is +1.0% from current levels, to stabilize the stock market into a sideways pattern that stops the selling. Bulls will need further help, such as pumping copper and chips higher, and volatility lower, if they want to regain control of the stock market. This appears a difficult task right now but things can change fast.

If RTH remains below 206.00 and XLF above 43.31, the stock market will stagger sideways like a drunk at the honky-tonk last evening that had to be shown the door. I Like Austin, but I Love San Antone. Bulls win with stronger retail stocks while bears win with weaker banks.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning; Friday the 13th for the superstitious folks. 13's my lucky number, to you it means stay inside. Bad Luck. 

9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
9/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = -14; signal line is +11
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
9/5/24; 12:40 PM EST = +2; signal line is +12
9/5/24; 12:20 PM EST = -14; signal line is +12
9/3/24; 2:04 PM EST = +2; signal line is +13; go short 5544; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon at SPX 5544. The semiconductors collapsed sending the broad stock market lower. SOX was bludgeoned creating market angst. The bears are back in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only 11 points below the signal line.

Bears likely need retail stocks to fall apart to create more negativity and the robot is tracking the RTH 206.25 bull/bear line in the sand. Price starts at 208.64 today only a percent on the bull side. If RTH loses 206.25, the broad stock market will deteriorate further. Watch AMZN.

Obviously, bulls need the chips to recover but they are severely beaten and lying behind the dumpster in the alleyway. RTH 206.25 will dictate if the bears will growl more or if stocks will stumble sideways into the critical US Monthly Job Report on Friday morning.

On the last trade, that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant each post marginal gains. For the year, now two-thirds complete, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +16%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +6% and the actual trading is up +11% underperforming the broad market by about 5 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/3/24; 2:04 PM EST = +2; signal line is +13; go short 5544; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.4%)
9/3/24; 9:36 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 11:02 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 10:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +15
8/30/24; 9:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/29/24; 2:16 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 1:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
8/29/24; 1:17 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is +18
8/29/24; 11:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:49 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:02 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:53 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/27/24; 11:31 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/27/24; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13
8/26/24; 12:45 PM EST = +17; signal line is +11
8/26/24; 12:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 12:20 PM EST = +17; signal line is +9
8/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +1; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
8/26/24; 10:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +6
8/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3
8/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +2
8/22/24; 3:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains long
8/20/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -1
8/19/24; 10:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is -2
8/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -4
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5
8/16/24; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is -7
8/16/24; 3:35 PM EST = +17; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 2:41 PM EST = +31; signal line is -8
8/16/24; 1:56 PM EST = +17; signal line is -9
8/16/24; 11:45 AM EST = +31; signal line is -11
8/16/24; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -12
8/15/24; 10:37 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13; go long 5520; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after last week's bull/bear battle. Stocks stumble sideways with a slight upward bias because the VIX will not give up the 14.71 line in the sand. The bulls teased a couple times taking the VIX sub 15 but could not achieve the goal of dropping below 14.71 which would firmly verify the upside move in stocks and its continuation. Stocks were bullish the last two trading days into the 3-day holiday weekend as is typically the case.

The bulls remain in charge but the algo number is only 4 points above the signal line. Flip a coin. Volatility is a key mover of stocks currently, as mentioned, and also copper, commodities and the semiconductors.

The bulls need VIX below 14.71, CPER above 26.55 and/or GTX above 3607. Any 1 of the 3 flipping into the bull camp will create another leg higher for the US stock market. A VIX below 14.71 will create an upside buying orgy so obscene it would make Caligula blush. So the bulls are praying for lower vol and higher copper and commodities to boost stocks higher. Commodities made a run higher last week but that petered out.

The bears need SOX below 5132 to reintroduce stock market weakness and selling. The chip battle was a knock-down drag-out fight last week as the quant printout shows. The semiconductors are running the stock market show currently and created last weeks buoyancy in the stock market.

US markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The uber important US Monthly Jobs Report is on tap Friday morning and will be the Superbowl of economic data. The US unemployment rate is 4.3%. If it jumps higher to 4.4% and more, Pope Powell is probably late with the rate cuts and may go 50-bips this month. If the rate stays around this 4.1% to 4.3% range and lower, a 25-bip cut is likely on the table for 9/18/24. 

The stage is set for Tuesday. It looked like the bears were taking control last week and both copper and semiconductors failed into the bear camp creating negativity, but by the end of the week, the chips recovered to steady the stock market ship. This battle continues.

Keeping it simple, bulls win big with either VIX below 14.71 and/or CPER above 26.55. If both turn bullish, the euphoric SPX 6,000 calls for this year may actually become a reality.

However, if the VIX remains elevated, and copper weak, and the SOX loses 5132, there will be blood flowing on Wall and Broad. Watch the futures to know what is going on with volatility and copper. Bulls need a +0.9% rise in copper futures to turn on the afterburners and send stocks to the moon. Bears need a -0.5% drop in semiconductors to reintroduce stock market weakness and selling. Volatility, copper and chips are all that matter to the stock market currently.

If the SOX loses 5132, and the SPX drops below 5582 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short so the imminent turn notation is in the title line for now. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Two-thirds of 2024 is toast with only one-third remaining. Happy Labor Day. Lightning Crashes during labor.

9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 11:02 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 10:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +15
8/30/24; 9:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/29/24; 2:16 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 1:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
8/29/24; 1:17 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:49 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:02 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:53 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18